It is generally believed in the industry that the sharp rise of BDI index in this round is mainly driven by the maritime demand of Atlantic iron ore, and the supporting factors of iron ore market for freight in the second half of the year still exist. In addition, the fundamentals of the dry bulk transport industry continue to improve.
The freight is still supported in the second half of the year.
BDI is an international general index to measure the freight rates of dry bulk cargoes such as iron ore and coal, which consists of the Cape of Good Hope freight rate index (BCI), Panama freight rate index (BPI) and super convenient ship freight rate index (BSI), among which BCI index accounts for 40%, BPI index and BSI index account for 30% respectively.
Tang, an analyst of Founder's mid-term futures, said in an interview with the Shanghai Stock Exchange that the recent surge in the index was mainly driven by the Cape Freight Index. Due to the mine disaster in Vale and the hurricane in Australia, iron ore shipments fell sharply in late March, and then the BCI index fell. With the gradual recovery of shipments in Australia, Vale and other producing areas, transportation costs soared and BCI index soared.
From the data point of view, the increase of BCI has exceeded the BDI index. On July 17, the BCI index exceeded 4,000 points, with a monthly increase of 124%. As of July 23rd, the BCI index reported 43 15 points.
Tang told the Shanghai Securities Journal that the current shipments of Vale are still lower than the same period of last year, and the shipments of Australia are flat year-on-year, while the non-mainstream mines are greatly affected by seasonal factors after experiencing the peak of delivery in the first half of the year. It is expected that there will be limited room for supply improvement in the second half of the year. The supply of iron ore is still tight in the second half of the year, which still has a positive supporting effect on freight rates.
Fundamental improvement of dry bulk market may usher in an inflection point next year.
It is both unexpected and reasonable for the BDI index to return to 2000 points.
A senior shipping person told the Shanghai Securities Journal that the BDI index reached 2000 points one year later than expected. I didn't expect that the main thrust was caused by the disturbance of the iron ore supply side, which fully demonstrated the unpredictability of the market.
VesselsValue, an online ship valuation company, revealed an interesting phenomenon to the reporter of Shanghai Stock Exchange. The dam-break accident in Vale at the beginning of the year even extended the trading window of Cape second-hand boats to an unprecedented 106 days. However, this record ended after Fred Cheng, a famous shipowner, quickly sold two bulk carriers built in 2002.
Clarkson, a famous shipping consulting company, pointed out in the first half of the year that the recovery of the shipping industry itself is also a strong support for BDI. In the first half of 20 19, Clarkson maritime index increased by 8% on average compared with last year, slightly higher than the average level since the financial crisis in 2009.
From the perspective of transportation capacity, the latest data of China Shipbuilding Industry Association shows that from/kloc-0 to May, the national shipbuilding was completed 1 6.66 million dwt, only increasing by 1.4% year-on-year. However, the new ship order was 1 1.73 million dwt, down 40% year-on-year. At the end of May, orders for hand-held ships reached 84.39 million dwt, down 5.5% year-on-year and 5.5% compared with the end of 20 18.
The latest report of TF Securities transportation industry shows that the concentration of bulk transportation industry is still low, but the industry trend is improving. In the long run, the implementation of IMO environmental protection convention and the continuous downturn of the industry are expected to bring about the gradual clearing of production capacity, and the trend of shrinking new ship orders is expected to continue, and 2020 may be the long-term turning point of the industry.
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(Article Source: shanghai securities news)
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