"Now we are really in trouble!"
Cai Shaohua, general manager of Zhejiang Huajia Holding Group, did not get what he expected. He originally expected that after a "good start", the exaggerated increase in raw materials could be achieved after March. It has fallen back, but "the price of copper is now close to 70,000 yuan, has been at a high level, and is still rising slightly."
From being afraid to take orders when construction started in February, to now being unable to withstand the pressure and having to negotiate price increases with customers, Cai Shaohua described the situation in recent months as "semi-stagnant", "Although customers I understand the current situation, but when it comes to price increases, communication will definitely take time. ”
What Cai Shaohua can do is to continue to increase inventory. —On one end are production capacities that are trying not to be significantly reduced, and at the other end are goods that are still negotiating for price increases and are afraid to sell.
Against the background that foreign trade exports increased by nearly 40% year-on-year in the first quarter, due to pressures such as the rare surge in raw materials in recent years, such "semi-stagnation" has been forced to become the "new normal" for foreign trade manufacturing companies. .
Inventories have increased by 30% and the shipping cycle has been 70 days longer
Since the beginning of this year, the prices of major products in the steel, copper ore, petrochemical and other industries have continued the upward trend that started last year and are setting a record After a good start, it did not fall back as quickly as in previous years, but continued to rise.
As an important raw material for industrial products, in less than a year, the price of Lun copper has risen from 6,000 US dollars/ton to more than 9,000 US dollars/ton, and Shanghai copper has also risen from more than 40,000 yuan/ton to nearly 10,000 US dollars/ton. 70,000 yuan/ton, almost doubled.
As a Chinese wall-mounted boiler manufacturer, Cai Shaohua and his company’s main raw material is copper rods. The rise in copper prices has directly caused the company’s raw material costs to increase by nearly 50% this year.
The Mandarin Commodity Index stood at 182.49 on April 16, an increase of 8.1% from January 29, of which the industrial products index rose by 10.2%. The rise in black varieties is particularly obvious. The average settlement price of rebar futures in the first quarter reached 4,532 yuan/ton, an increase of 24.7% from the average price for the whole year of 2020, which is the highest level since rebar futures were launched in 2009. The average settlement price of Shanghai iron ore futures reached 1,062 yuan/ton, an increase of 39.7% from the average price for the whole year of 2020.
“Raw materials have risen too much.” As an export manufacturing enterprise of electric bicycles, Zeng Xiansheng, general manager of Suzhou Mengshi Intelligent Vehicle Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “Mengshi Intelligence”) told China Business News that electric bicycles The main materials are aluminum alloys, as well as motors, chips and rare earths. Not only are the prices of these materials always high, but they are also often out of stock.
At present, the company's orders have been scheduled for after June. Zeng Xiansheng, who "doesn't have to worry about orders in particular", is worried about the continuously delayed delivery cycle and the accompanying rising pressure on the capital chain.
"Now you need to pay cash to get raw materials, and the original account period is gone. Many lithium batteries have been paid in advance but cannot be received." Zeng Xiansheng said that in the past, upstream companies would still purchase raw materials. They were given a payment period of about 60 days, but now it's the other way around. After paying, they still have to queue up to wait for the goods. "One transmission is even scheduled to be scheduled until 2023."
The delivery cycle at the other end is also After the extension, Zeng Xiansheng’s delivery cycle was about 70 days longer than before. For Cai Shaohua, on the basis of increasing inventory by 30%, it is still unknown how much the delivery cycle will be extended - he will not dare to ship until the price is negotiated without losing money.
While being forced to negotiate price increases and delivery times extended indefinitely, companies also face the risk of losing orders or declining sales.
The direct consequence of being squeezed from both ends is that the pressure on corporate capital chains has increased significantly, which in turn has triggered a wave of corporate bankruptcies in a vicious cycle.
CCTV’s previous investigation of the manufacturing industry in Guangdong showed that some small home appliance companies that do not have the ability to open molds and process electrical accessories themselves cannot afford the price increases from general accessories factories and cannot receive orders in the short term. went bankrupt one after another.
What Cai Shaohua is looking forward to now is the time of May Day. "March and May every year are the off-season. We are still waiting and watching, and we will increase the price after May Day."
In fact, it is not just domestic small and medium-sized enterprises that are under pressure. Even international industry giants cannot bear to raise prices one after another.
"This is the largest increase in commodity raw materials in my 33 years at P&G. This momentum may continue for a long time." Jon Mohler, Chief Operating Officer of Procter & Gamble Said that this forced him to announce an increase in the prices of daily necessities from diapers to toilet paper starting in September this year.
The Coca-Cola Company also stated that it cannot withstand the pressure of rising raw material prices and has made a decision to increase the selling price of its products.
The RMB enters the 6.4 era
In addition to the rise in raw materials, the pressure caused by the appreciation of the RMB and high international shipping costs has not ended yet.
“If this continues, no one in foreign trade will want to do it.
"Li Qi, the person in charge of a garment foreign trade manufacturing company in the Yangtze River Delta region, told China Business News that the pressure brought by the appreciation of the RMB on foreign trade companies is no less than the impact of the rise in raw materials.
The appreciation trend that started in the second half of last year So far, the RMB has risen by nearly 10%, which is the largest and strongest rise in Li Qi’s memory after doing foreign trade business for more than 20 years.
On April 22, China Foreign Exchange Trading Center. According to published data, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 6.4902, an increase of 144 basis points. Wang Tao, chief China economist at UBS, believes that the US dollar to RMB exchange rate is expected to be around 6.4 by the end of this year, and may be. Driven by the exchange rate trend of the US dollar against major currencies, this also means that the RMB is in the 6.4 era.
Compared with the end of last year, the tension in container transportation has eased, but freight rates are still high. At a high level, the transportation capacity is arranged nearly one and a half months earlier than before.
Zhou Shihao, CEO of China's one-stop international logistics service platform "Yunqunar", told China Business News that orders placed in late May will be shipped in May. Arrangements only started on May 15, but now the transportation plan for May has been arranged, "90% of the transportation capacity has been arranged, and we will start arranging the transportation capacity for June next week."
According to him. According to observations, shipping, air transport, or China-Europe freight trains are currently at their limit. Due to tight transportation capacity and high freight rates, companies are beginning to need more digital information to combat anxiety and uncertainty.
Catalyzed by the epidemic, digitalization and e-commerce have also become high-frequency words in the field of foreign trade.
In the first quarter of this year, China’s foreign trade maintained restorative growth, according to data from the General Administration of Customs. my country's exports reached 4.6 trillion yuan in the quarter, a year-on-year increase of 38.7%. As an emerging trade format, cross-border e-commerce continued its good development trend last year, with exports increasing by 69.3% year-on-year, becoming one of the main forces for the steady growth of foreign trade.
On April 22, Alibaba International Station announced its foreign trade trends and digital overseas strategy in 2021. Zhang Kuo, Vice President of Alibaba Group and General Manager of Alibaba International Station, said that during the epidemic, the penetration rate of global e-commerce increased significantly. The trend of online procurement is irreversible. As China's structural position in global supply continues to increase, the dividends of cross-border e-commerce are still there, which is a new opportunity for China's manufacturing to go overseas with high quality through branding.
Zhang Kuo told China Business News that in the global trade chain, cost transfers such as rising raw material prices and RMB appreciation mainly depend on which party is stronger and which party has more say in supporting China's manufacturing in the world. It is still the largest, and it is especially irreplaceable during the epidemic. Therefore, judging from the data on the platform, we have not yet seen a significant price increase trend and market resistance to price increases, but it must be emphasized that Chinese manufacturing companies must. Seize the window period of the epidemic and gradually move from scale growth to quality growth.
Xu Xinyuan, general manager of Huasheng Shuanglang (Beijing) Textile Co., Ltd., which develops antibacterial and deodorant textile fabrics, has been operating cross-border e-commerce business for more than 10 years. She told China Business News that raw material price increases and RMB appreciation are likely to become the norm for a longer period of time. Their way to deal with rising raw material prices is to provide customers with more alternative fabric solutions based on a full understanding of raw materials.
As for exchange rate fluctuations, Xu Xinyuan said that they will now lock the RMB price with customers in the contract to try to avoid losses caused by RMB appreciation. With the help of platforms like Alibaba International Station, they will also increase added value and efficiency by strengthening brand building and using a series of solutions such as overseas warehouses, rapid foreign exchange settlement, and business loans.