1. Urbanization process In the next twenty years, urbanization will remain the main theme of social change in China.
By 2008, more than 60% of the population will live in cities. The main axis of China's reform is economic development, and the main driving force of economic development is urbanization. Therefore, urbanization will still play a central role. Urbanization not only means the transformation from rural to non-agricultural, but also means that the lifestyle centered on population concentration and capital consumption will permeate every corner of China. Urban-rural fringe, prefecture-level cities, counties and central towns will become the main battlefields of urbanization, and the consumption upgrading of residents in counties and towns will create important opportunities for future entrepreneurship. The chain service business model with prefecture-level as the core will have explosive growth, which contains huge business opportunities.
2. Globalization and the Rise of China
Globalization is the mainstream in today's world. In the next two decades, China will accelerate its integration into globalization, and its position in the international economic and cultural fields will continue to improve. China's experience will be more influential and valuable. The future globalization will be the globalization of the rise of China, or the rise of China will become an important force to promote globalization. Trade friction, exchange rate issues, resource competition, financial security and local arms race will be the troubles for China to further integrate into globalization.
3. The power of capital is further highlighted and strengthened.
In the next two decades, with the continuous improvement of capital efficiency and asset management level, capital will play a more important role in China. The regulation of financial market, the bleaching of underground finance, the increase of private investment scale and the growth of private capital are the main melody melody melody of financial development in the next twenty years. China will quickly form an astonishing scale private financial consortium and become an important force in China's financial market. Together with national capital, this force will form an influential China capital, which may launch a local financial war in the next 20 years and become an indispensable part of international finance.
4. More, more scientific system
In the next two decades, China's reform will enter the deep water area. Although it is difficult, the future is bright. Based on the consideration of economic development and stability, county-level grass-roots units will become the breakthrough and foothold of reform, and at the same time symbolically carry out some departmental reforms. Because it touches the vested interests of the department, the reform cost is high, the resistance is great, and the success rate is low, so everyone is in the form of tacit understanding and there will be no substantive progress.
5. Health problems have become prominent and become social problems.
In the next twenty years, more than half of China citizens will be troubled by their health. The main reasons are as follows: a) Environmental pollution. After China's extensive processing economy destroys the coastal living environment, it will bring greater burden to the already fragile environment in the process of moving in, based on cost considerations. B lifestyle, overeating, eutrophication, lack of exercise and other factors will lead to more and more sub-healthy people. C Aging In the next 20 years, the elderly population in China will exceed 300 million, and the health status is not optimistic. These factors will cause health to become a serious social problem, and related services, medical insurance system, food safety and water source safety will continue to become social hotspots. Health will become a social problem.
6. The problem of providing for the aged will become a very prominent issue.
The family planning policy, which was implemented in the 1970s, will begin to show its great disadvantages around 2008-the population structure is upside down, the aging is accelerating, and the demographic dividend disappears rapidly. By then, getting rich first is always a true portrayal of the post-50 s and post-60 s, and many post-50 s, post-60 s and even post-70 s will face the embarrassing situation of being unable to support the elderly. The deficit of national social security is getting bigger and bigger, and the country is likely to extend the retirement age by five years, reaching 10. The sense of security is the beautiful wish of the ancient people in China, which may be greatly tested in a long time to come. I suggest you plan ahead. Health problems and pension problems will make many nights after 50 s and 60 s bleak.
7. The emergence of global high-end centers
China's export processing industry is not as useless as described by the media. In fact, the processing industry has solved a very important employment problem in China, which is a great contribution. At the same time, due to the continuous enrichment of China's advantages and the continuous improvement of supporting facilities, China has accumulated a lot of experience, technology, talents, projects and management processes in the process of "making wedding clothes for others". In the next 20 years, the processing of primary products such as small commodities and clothing will gradually shrink, and China will play a decisive role in the fields of electronics and microelectronics, automobiles, airplanes, high-speed rail, medicine, artificial intelligence and new energy. The concentration of capital, technology, talents, environment, supporting facilities, industrial clusters and other forces will enable China to have several world-class high-tech and cutting-edge product centers, whether chips or consumption. In the frontier fields such as Internet of Things and software, China will have world-leading technologies and capabilities. By moving towards R&D, the added value of China will enter the forefront of the world in. And will completely change the industrial structure of primary processing. In the next 20 years, China's industry will lead the world.
8. Form a strong e-commerce industrial cluster.
With the support of a large number of foreign trade enterprises, e-commerce in China has developed rapidly. Now domestic trade and foreign trade are more dependent on e-commerce. With the improvement of logistics system and financial support, e-commerce in China will develop rapidly in the future and form a powerful e-commerce industrial cluster. The field of e-commerce will become more and more lively. The development of e-commerce will have a great impact on China's retail industry and supermarkets, and the terminal role played by traditional supermarkets will be greatly impacted. In the future, the functions of department stores will gradually change from products to product experience and customer service terminals, and products will be mainly completed by the Internet.
9. The voice of the middle class has increased.
It is easy to understand that the economic base determines the superstructure, and the western middle class may decline, but in China, the middle class will still be on the rise. After all, the diamond-shaped society is easier to manage and people's happiness index is higher. The values representing the lifestyle of the middle class will be popularized in the new round, and the lifestyle of the middle class that pursues taste, emphasizes emotional appeal and attaches importance to sensory enjoyment will continue, and the middle class will become the happiest class. With the growth of their number and class, their social influence and discourse power will continue to increase. At the same time, due to their pursuit of stability and lack of progress, their crisis will become increasingly prominent. The state will definitely give priority to the interests of the privileged and vulnerable groups. As for the middle class, not many people will care.
10. Values and value system are more personalized and personalized.
Undoubtedly, consumer culture will continue to change the lifestyle of China people. With the awakening of individual rights consciousness, people's pursuit will be more diversified. Mainstream values are an individualistic culture with the pursuit of maximum personal value as its core. All artistic works that emphasize individuality and individuality will be welcomed. The mainstream culture in the next twenty years will be individual expression and personal realization. Society shows more tolerance for individuals, such as sexual orientation, personal hobbies, performance art and so on.
1 1. Extreme deterioration of the environment.
China's damage to the environment may be far beyond our imagination. Extreme weather year after year, drought in southwest China and devastating floods in summer are all evidence. Desertification in the north, the exhaustion of clean water resources nationwide, solid waste treatment and solid waste pollution will become severe challenges. In the next twenty years, the environmental pollution in China will further deteriorate, the main reasons are: 1. China's GDP economic determinism, extensive economy will destroy the environment in exchange for survival. 2. Grass-roots leading cadres have low management level, lack of awareness of environmental responsibility, and do whatever it takes to find a job. 3. The industrial structure of China's economy relies too much on environmentally unfriendly industrial enterprises, which determines that the national decision-makers will be in a dilemma and tangled position in the process of promoting the adjustment of industrial structure and the transformation of economic development mode, and protecting the environment will become an uncompromising excuse, which is the inevitable result of the internal interest group game in China today.
12. Resource prices will remain stable and relative prices will fall.
With the global clean energy research and development entering a new stage of development, various substitutes emerge one after another. After deducting inflation, the price of traditional resources is stable and may fall. In the next 15 years, the global oil price will drop, coal may withdraw from the historical stage within 30 years, and there will be more and more substitutes for metals (the metals mentioned here do not mean precious metals and rare metals), and the price will also fall. The only possible price increase is pharmaceutical raw materials, especially raw materials for the production of genetic drugs. In the next 10 year, human beings will successfully develop real gene therapy drugs, which will be the most revolutionary news in the medical field. From then on, the treatment of human diseases will enter the genetic era, and personalized and precise treatment schemes will become a reality. Traditional drugs will also accelerate, and drugs may completely abandon side effects. Therefore, the sexual increase in demand for raw materials for gene drugs will make their prices rise continuously.
13. The price will continue to rise.
In the next twenty years, the population of China will increase, and the price of China will continue to rise, especially the price of food, because people's requirements for quality of life are constantly improving. At the same time, farmers who used to grow mung beans are now working in towns or counties. By the same token, except for food prices (which this country dare not ignore) and cheap seasonal vegetables, the prices of other foods will continue to rise.
14. The urban poor have become the lowest social stratum and the main force of social crimes.
In the future, with the acceleration of urbanization in China, the number of urban poor will surpass that of rural areas and become a real absolute poor population. These urban poor live in expensive cities, and their source of life is their own labor income. Once they lose their jobs, they will face an imminent survival crisis. They are engaged in simple jobs with low added value and are in danger of being replaced at any time. Because of their unstable life, it is difficult for them to find partners (especially men), so many people are forced to embark on the road of crime. They are the main perpetrators of theft, robbery and other criminal acts. The society should improve the social security system, at the same time, strengthen the skills training for the grassroots, strengthen the implementation of basic education, and try its best to ensure that citizens receive compulsory education.
15. Gender issues are increasingly prominent
The patriarchal ideology since China will make the future men in China pay a high price. Sex identification, selective abortion of female fetus and family planning policy will make more men and less women a cruel reality. According to statistics, the ratio of male to female babies born in China is equal to or higher than this ratio (some experts think that the problem is not as serious as the data shows, and there must be a problem of missing the sex of the baby girl, which I have reservations about). For a long time to come, China will still be more than 10,000 bachelors. This is a major social problem. The inevitable result is: the social instability factors increase; The crime rate has risen; The cost of male marriage increases; The sex industry continues to develop; The incidence of sexually transmitted diseases has increased; AIDS control is more difficult; The divorce rate is on the rise (the number of men who hold the concept of "being a woman, whether married or unmarried" will continue to increase). In the next decade, the pressure on men to choose a spouse will be greatest after 90 s and 00 s. Many post-90 s have to accept the leftover women from post-80 s, or pin their hopes on marriage. After 90 s and 00 s, men are destined to become the biggest victims of their parents' "selective abortion" behavior. And those parents who think they are smart enough to have a "selective abortion" will work hard for their son's wife all their lives. They must work hard, so as to create more attractive family conditions and spouse chips for their sons, and the fruits of these efforts will directly become the extra gains of the woman's parents, because daughters are scarce resources for many suitors. Society often fools our cleverness in a ridiculous way.
16. Water resources will be in short supply rapidly, and water prices will rise sharply.
Water is the source of life. The importance of water is self-evident. The problem is that the surface water in China is constantly being destroyed, and drinking water will become a big problem. After the Yellow River is cut off, the Yangtze River, the largest river in China, will also be cut off. In winter, after the rainy season in China, many areas will be left without water to drink. Therefore, water purification and water treatment will become hot industries in the next twenty years, and the price of drinking water will continue to rise until the rich drink clean water and polluted water. If we don't strengthen efforts to protect China's fresh water resources and close down heavily polluting enterprises such as papermaking and chemical industry in key river basins, the consequences will be unimaginable. The gap between the rich and the poor will evolve into a gap in the ability to resist the threat of harmful substances, and drinking poison to quench thirst will become a portrayal of many people's lives. Physical events are likely to occur in this field.
17. China will become a global financial hot money and launch many regional financial storms and financial turmoil.
In the next two decades, China capital will "go global" and play an important role in the international community. It will not only play the role of industrial capital to invest in Africa and South America, but also become a powerful speculative capital and go to the global financial market. With the saturation and surplus of financial talents in China, they will exert their strength in foreign exchange, commodity futures and other financial fields, forming a spectacular financial chaos.
18. The number of fires has increased explosively, and the problem of building quality has caused great burden to the people.
You will find that from the end of last century, the quality of commercial buildings in China is getting worse every year. In recent years, building collapses have occurred one after another, and the quality of building construction has been criticized. On the one hand, businessmen have to ensure their high profits, on the other hand, they have to bear the ridiculously high tax burden and spend a lot of money on officials at all levels, so they have to choose to sacrifice the quality of housing construction. Anyway, everyone is investing. Remember those school buildings that collapsed in Wenchuan earthquake? Some collapsed school buildings have no foundation at all (now they have become natural bone pits for suffering students)! The walls of those teaching buildings are built on the ground without foundation! I still can't understand why those unscrupulous professors in Tsinghua University come to the absurd conclusion that there is no problem with the building quality in the earthquake-stricken areas. These unscrupulous animals must bear the responsibility of history.
19. The problem of private ownership will become more and more acute, and the constitution may be amended.
The promulgation of the Property Law has always been regarded as a major event in the legal field. The recognition and protection of private property rights is the development trend, and the clauses that conflict with private property rights in the Constitution will face the fate of being amended. In the next twenty years, it will be a trend for China to restrict public power and protect citizens' rights. I am a layman in law, so I won't say anything else. I hope friends in the legal profession will add more.
20. The affluent and skilled classes in China will accelerate their pace.
This trend is obvious, and heat is not a new topic. Tianya's friends have long known that western developed countries not only have good environment, perfect social security system and low prices, but also have more free cultures and can tolerate and accept foreign cultures. The intuitive indicator of whether a city has international influence is how many different languages are used in this city. In new york, we can hear Spanish, Spanish, Italian, French, Chinese and so on anytime and anywhere, which is the charm and global influence of new york. The reasons for the affluent class in China are: 1. Pursuing better quality of life and environmental quality; In order to prevent liquidation, many businesses know that their products have problems. In order to prevent customers from picking on them, they will leave immediately after making a big profit and leave the mess to others to clean up. Those children will also worry that everything may run away. 3. Experience a new life; 4. Look for new investment opportunities. The biggest obstacle to their behavior is that their foreign language level is too low.
The trend of technology elitism is more obvious. Some people laugh that Tsinghua Peking University is a training base for foreign talents. According to a survey, the elites in China have a very low sense of national identity, low willingness to contribute to the country and strong desire to pursue life. Their work will go on as usual.
The affluent and technical classes in China have stepped up their pace, which is not good news for China. Interested friends go to see the modern history of the Philippines. After World War II, the United States established a perfect modern system in the Philippines, including the Parliament and the Supreme Court. Unfortunately, at that time, the warlords in the Philippines took advantage of their privileges, plundered the wealth of the people, carved up the wealth of the country, and then went overseas, resulting in poverty in the Philippines. It would be great for China if the rich in China also took away a lot of wealth. The consequences are not optimistic.
Based on the better development of China in the future, there will be a mechanism to explore new fields and reform, and entrepreneurs and entrepreneurs will pay more attention to it.