Psychology of futures investment
First of all, as Sun Tzu's Art of War said: Know yourself and know yourself, and you will be invincible:
There are two points that must be paid attention to in the cultivation of bosom friends and the understanding of inner character:
First, be familiar with your investment risk preference and income expectation.
What is the purpose of engaging in futures investment? Some people use futures to hedge, they can also use futures and spot arbitrage, they can also do short-term, or they just want to make money, but what money should they make? how much money do you earn? How much do you earn to match the size of the initial investment margin? While risks and profits coexist, there should also be corresponding loss reserves. Does your life have enough backing? Can you afford it at this time?
Second, advantages and disadvantages (the most important thing is weakness).
In addition to their own personality will affect the performance of trading futures options, in fact, the current position will also have an impact, male or female? Office workers and professional investors? Married or unmarried (different status and self-confidence will lead to different turnover rates)? The speed of ordering food and the convenience of obtaining information? Different conditions and different attributes: suitable for short-term and long-term projects? These must be considered carefully before making futures investment.
Know yourself and the external environment, with the following key points:
First, the characteristics of commodities and their current positioning.
Different commodities have different characteristics, such as the following: stock index usually reflects a country's economic strength, so politicians usually like to do more, which leads to a long-term rise in futures index, but a rapid decline for correction; However, because the planting and harvesting costs of agricultural products are fixed, they are often revised horizontally at a relatively low point, and occasionally they suddenly skyrocket due to factors such as supply and demand or climate change, and the maximum profits and risks are also very likely to occur here.
Secondly, the analysis tool must check its risk value.
There is no technical analysis method that doesn't make money, whether using moving average or wave theory, but there is no method that doesn't lose money. The question is: Do we really know them before using them? Such as futures program trading, option strategy trading, multi-commodity spread trading and so on. , are full of challenges, are worth spending all your energy to study!
In addition, because everyone has worldly desires, there will always be some information (some people say it is interference) in the external environment that will affect us. How can we avoid being affected by it? There is a simple way to evaluate its influence, that is, to "convert" the narrative that originally belonged to words into digital conditions, and try to carry out backtracking test (if it is impossible to backtrack, give up first), which will have a positive impact on our judgment.
For example, at first glance, the excess amount of foreign investment transactions may be just a reference figure, but if it can be converted into the part I should hold now through the formula, and the retrospective test is effective, then the excess amount of foreign investment transactions will not be just a reference, but a good profit-making tool.
Remember: usually the mood is influenced by written reasons, and the change of numbers will be related to the size of our wallets.
Psychological analysis of futures: the difference training between sensibility and rationality
1. Know yourself: "In the futures market, unexpected things happen every day. You must have a decisive attitude at all times in order to cope with the rapid changes in the market. Otherwise, you will change your mind and direction several times in a few minutes and eventually lose your mind. " A trader said so.
2, don't build on hope: don't send market analysis on hope, distinguish the difference between rationality and sensibility, or you will buy and sell according to hope. "Although hope is a virtue in other areas of life, it will become a real obstacle in futures trading. When a novice wants the market to turn in his favor, he often violates the basic trading rules.
3. Don't change your original decision at will: In the process of trading, once you decide the basic direction of buying and selling, don't let the short-term ups and downs of the market confuse your trading plan. Decisions based on price changes or news on the day of buying and selling are usually affected. Successful futures traders say that they would rather determine their basic views before opening, make decisions without being disturbed by market conditions, be bullish, bearish or sideways, and place orders in due course after making decisions. If you completely change your mind on the day of buying and selling, you are misleading yourself. Worst of all, if you make a small profit, your trading discipline will be greatly reduced in the future.
4. Don't blindly follow what the public agrees: successful futures traders like to have free breathing space, but when everyone is scrambling to buy, they find a reason to sell. According to history, people always go the wrong way. When a successful trader holds the same contract with the general public, especially those retail investors, he will feel uncomfortable.
5. Effective but long-term information: In trading, if you hear the opinions of some traders, you will involuntarily want to change the direction of the contract. At this time, it is best to consider this opinion for long-term reference, otherwise it will become short-term if you just bring it in and don't take it out. These are not mistakes that investment should make. In the end, you will find that what can make you more profitable is your own unique opinion.
6. Learn to love losses: A successful trader said, "Learn to love losses, because that's part of trading. If you can accept the loss without hurting your vitality, then you are on the road to success in futures trading. Before you become a good trader, you must get rid of the fear of losing money.
7. Have a proper holiday: buying and selling every day will blunt your judgment. "When my mental sensitivity drops to 90%, I can break even. If it drops, I will start to lose money. Futures traders take a break every five or six weeks. Take a break and you will have a more detached view of the market; This will also help you to look at yourself and your next goal in another way. _ Take a break with strategy! Will give you a better perspective to observe the market.
Classification of futures investment
Futures investment business is a very extensive business, from individual investors to banks and fund institutions can become participants and play their respective roles in the futures market. Futures investment business is usually divided into three categories.
robustness
Steady investment, namely cross-market arbitrage, cross-month arbitrage, cross-variety arbitrage and other arbitrage transactions.
Cross-market arbitrage means that investors buy futures contracts of a certain commodity in a certain month in one exchange and sell futures contracts of the same variety in the same month in another futures exchange, and buy and sell the same variety in the same month in two exchanges with equal positions. After the spread is obtained, both parties close their positions and settle the transaction at the same time. At present, China's cross-market trading volume is very large, mainly the LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange arbitrage of non-ferrous metals, and the CBOT and Dalian Commodity Exchange of soybeans are gradually beginning to arbitrage.
Cross-month arbitrage refers to the behavior of investors buying and selling contracts at the same time in the same exchange, the same variety and different months. Many products, especially agricultural products, are highly seasonal. When the seasonal price difference in some months is profitable, investors will enter the arbitrage. The short-term and long-term price differences of all commodities have certain historical regularity. When there is a situation different from the historical performance, some cross-month arbitrageurs will enter the market. Take the nonferrous metals of Shanghai Futures Exchange as an example. Many clients of Peng Futures Brokerage Co., Ltd. are professional arbitrageurs. Many customers keep trading, and the profit rate is sometimes twice as high as the bank loan interest rate.
Cross-variety arbitrage refers to the arbitrage transaction in which investors take advantage of the price difference of futures contracts between two different but interrelated commodities, that is, the contract to buy one commodity in a certain month and sell another commodity in the same month. It is worth emphasizing that these two commodities are related, and the historical price changes have laws to follow. Such as corn and wheat, copper and aluminum, soybean and soybean meal, soybean oil and so on.
risk
Venture capital, that is, unilateral trading.
Some investors prefer leveraged trading, believing that they will invest as long as the risks and benefits are in direct proportion and there are many opportunities. In the futures market, a large number of small and medium-sized investors (whether individuals or institutions) are making venture capital.
Venture capital is divided into hat-grabbing trading, short-term trading and long-term trading. Hat-grabbing trading refers to trading when the market is favorable and changing hands constantly. Intra-day short-term refers to closing positions in the day and not leaving positions until the second trading day. Long-term trading refers to holding a position for a few days or months, and then closing the position at a favorable time.
Performance of risk:
Risk of price fluctuation. Is the margin leverage effect of futures trading easy to induce traders? With small and broad? Speculation, thus increasing the fluctuation range of prices.
Settlement risk. The daily debt-free settlement system makes customers face the risk of being forced to close their positions when the futures price fluctuates greatly and the margin cannot be replenished to the minimum within the specified time, and all the losses caused by it are borne by customers.
Operational risk. The operational risk of investors mainly comes from irrational investment ideas and operating methods. Mainly manifested in: under the premise of lacking correct analysis of fundamentals and technical aspects, blindly entering the market and moving against the market; When opening a position, the profit target and stop loss price are not clear, which leads to the inability to effectively close the position at the key price to ensure the income or reduce the loss.
Liquidity risk. Liquidity risk refers to the risk that it is difficult for traders to complete transactions in time.
Credit risk. Credit risk refers to the risk brought by the seller's statement or the buyer's failure to perform the contract in the futures market.
strategic
Strategic investment, that is, the strategic transaction of general trend investment.
Strategic investment means that investors, especially large financial institutions, enter the market after studying the cyclical trend of a commodity. Generally speaking, they invest in one direction for several years, that is, to do the cyclical trend of the economy, regardless of short-term gains and losses. Generally, large foreign banks and fund companies make strategic investments. So far, there is no strategic investment institution in China.