I trade current account (trade deficit)
Since the second half of 1999, the American economy has been expanding continuously. The strengthening of consumer demand and the substantial expansion of enterprise investment have led to a sustained and substantial increase in imports. However, due to the failure of export growth, the gap of trade deficit continues to widen. It stands to reason that this time must be solved by the effect of currency depreciation. However, because the United States still adheres to the strong dollar policy, the trade deficit continues to expand, which will inevitably affect the strong position of the dollar in the long run.
B. Unemployment rate
1At the end of 999, the unemployment rate in the United States fell to the lowest level since the 1960s. Fearing that the tightening of the labor market would lead to inflation and thus reduce corporate profits, the Federal Reserve began to adopt a series of tight monetary policies, which almost caused a hard landing crisis for the American economy, and the unemployment rate even reached a new high of 5438+0 in March 2006.
C, enterprise profit (profit)
Affected by labor cost, capital cost and slow consumption, the profit level of American enterprises is declining year by year. Constantly issuing corporate profit warning and lowering financial measurement will seriously threaten the economic strength of the United States.
D. Growth of Productivity
If productivity keeps growing, even if labor costs increase, even if employment costs increase, it will not lead to inflation. Therefore, the key to a smooth soft landing in the United States will be productivity. However, the capital utilization rate and capital equipment expenditure have repeatedly hit new lows, which is not an optimistic news for the improvement of productivity. All walks of life, including Greenspan, have urged the Bush administration to speed up the training of skilled workers. This plan will have the opportunity to greatly improve the labor structure and thus increase productivity. On the whole, it is predicted that the growth of productivity will gradually tend to be flat, and there is still a driving force to curb inflation. After the introduction of the euro, the German mark, French franc, Italian lira, dutch gulden and Belgian franc merged into one, and the euro became the most important weighted currency, accounting for 57.6% of the total dollar index, which had a great influence, with the weight concentrated on the euro, Japanese yen and British pound. Therefore, the trend of the European Central Bank's monetary policy and the economic performance of the euro zone are indispensable factors to observe the strength of the US dollar index.