Oil prices return to the 5 yuan era and enjoy the floor price of gasoline.

Affected by the international oil price, gasoline returned to the 5 yuan era at 24: 00 on March 17. On the national average, 92 # gasoline is lowered by 0.8 yuan per liter, 95 # gasoline by 0.84 yuan and 0.83 yuan for 0 # diesel. According to a case of 50 liters of oil, a full case of oil can at least save 40 yuan money.

How big is the decline this time? Let's just say that it is the biggest single decline since 12. It is also the biggest decline since the implementation of the new pricing mechanism of 20 13.

If the international crude oil price continues to fall, will the domestic refined oil price continue to fall? Will it go back to the 4 yuan era? Well, you think too much.

According to the price adjustment mechanism of refined oil in China, the upper limit and lower limit are set, the upper limit is 130 USD/barrel and the lower limit is 40 USD/barrel. If the international crude oil price per barrel exceeds 130 USD or falls below 40 USD, it will be calculated as 130 USD and 40 USD. International crude oil fell below $40/barrel, triggering the lower limit of adjustment. Therefore, the domestic refined oil price corresponds to the lower limit of $40/barrel.

In other words, what we are enjoying now is the floor price of gasoline. It can't be cheaper than this in the future, only more expensive. You know, the last time we enjoyed the floor price of $40/barrel was at the beginning of 20 16, four years ago.

More than 200 yuan to fill a box of oil, my youth is back!

What new energy to buy? Go straight to the gas truck!

According to the 5.5 yuan/liter of No.92 gasoline, a fuel truck is 8 liters per 100 kilometers, and the fuel cost is 44 yuan, which is 44 cents per kilometer.

If it is a hybrid car, it costs 4 liters per 100 kilometers, and the fuel cost is 22 yuan, and the fuel cost is 22 cents per kilometer.

If it is a pure electric vehicle, it is the most economical charging method-charging at home according to the calculation of per kilometer 15 degrees. It's almost a dime a kilometer.

Calculated by running 654.38+10,000 kilometers in five years, the fuel cost for fuel vehicles is 44,000 yuan, that for hybrid vehicles is 22,000 yuan, and that for electric vehicles is 1 10,000 yuan. The cost difference between fuel vehicles and electric vehicles is 32,000 yuan. The gap between hybrid cars and electric cars is 12000 yuan.

Regardless of the cost of battery replacement (many manufacturers now provide free warranty), it is also a second-hand fuel car and an electric car that has run for 65,438+10,000 kilometers for five years. If the fuel car sells 32,000 yuan more than the electric car, the fuel money will be recovered. If it is a hybrid car, sell more 12000, and the gas money will come back.

This is the advantage of low oil prices. At this floor oil price, you don't take it, just get on a gas truck, or even the large displacement you wanted to get on before, which is simply embarrassing.

How long will the oil price of this floor last?

Then the question is, how long will this low oil price last?

We look back and forth at the oil price adjustment in 2020. According to the current domestic 10 working day arrangement, domestic oil prices have passed five adjustment periods this year. Three of them were lowered and two were stranded (the price did not change).

Among the three downward adjustments, taking gasoline as an example, 420 yuan/ton, 4 15 yuan/ton and 1.0 15 yuan/ton were respectively lowered (the latest one). The cumulative downward adjustment range is 1850 yuan/ton.

In fact, the adjustment range of oil price is generally between per ton 100-200 yuan, which belongs to fine adjustment. However, the three downward adjustments since 2020 are all huge adjustments.

As shown in the following table, since 20 16, the oil price has been adjusted above 400 yuan per ton for 7 times, and will account for 3 times in 2020.

Such a huge oil price diving is really rare in n years!

The reason is simple: the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic and the price war launched by Saudi Arabia (because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia failed to reach a production reduction agreement, Saudi Arabia launched a price war, followed by Russia, and the international crude oil supply increased significantly). The price war of gasoline is shocking, not to mention the once-in-a-century COVID-19 epidemic.

So how long will this low oil price last? It is estimated that the floor oil price below $40/barrel will continue for a long time.

There are three reasons. First, the global epidemic broke out, and the transportation industries such as aviation, land transportation and maritime transportation were hit hard, and the demand for refined oil and aviation oil in the global market was greatly reduced; Judging from the current spread of the epidemic around the world, it is difficult to end this impact in the first half of the year, and it may even affect the oil demand throughout the year.

Second, Saudi Arabia launched a price war. Starting from April, it is planned to increase the daily output to 6.5438+0.23 million barrels. Russia began to fight in April and increased production simultaneously. The contradiction between supply exceeding demand will continue to deepen. If the two sides can't talk well and continue to fight, the oil price may continue to fall to the level of more than 20 US dollars/barrel, touching the cost line of both sides. International crude oil futures fell below $30/barrel. What level is this? This is 199 1 the biggest decline since the outbreak of the Gulf War. Oil is cheaper than water, and we are all witnessing history! In the long run, it is difficult to change the downward trend unless the production is greatly reduced.

Third, the epidemic has affected private cars and traffic, and the domestic demand for refined oil has been suppressed in the short term. Gas stations themselves are under pressure to cut prices. In the past two days, everyone saw on social media that many people were basking in oil prices, with more than 4 yuan and more than 3 yuan. At present, the wholesale and retail price difference of one ton of gasoline is more than 2,000 yuan, and the profit difference of one ton of diesel oil is more than 0/000 yuan/kloc. Gas stations have to eat to survive, and they have to turn around to promote sales. On the basis of the existing oil price, it is not surprising to continue to reduce a few cents or even a few dollars.

Let's talk about it finally.

Besides the lowest oil price, I'll make a list for you. From the perspective of national policy, what wool can you get from buying a car at present?

Policy 1: At present, the vehicle and vessel tax is reduced or exempted for energy-saving and new energy vehicles. According to the vehicle catalogue published by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and State Taxation Administration of The People's Republic of China, vehicles entering the catalogue can be exempted from taxes and fees.

Policy 2: subsidy policy for new energy vehicles. Continue to implement the standard of 20 19 this year until the end of 2020.

Policy 3: The new purchase tax policy will pay taxes at actual prices. If the model is more favorable, the taxes and fees borne by consumers will be reduced.

Policy 4: high-speed free before the end of the epidemic.

Policy 5: the license plate is conditionally released and ready to come out. On March 13, 23 departments, including the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Public Security and the Ministry of Finance, jointly issued the "Implementation Opinions on Promoting Consumption Expansion and Upgrading and Accelerating the Formation of a Strong Domestic Market" again, aiming at "promoting the policy change from automobile purchase restriction to guiding use, and encouraging the areas where automobile purchases are restricted to appropriately increase the number plate restriction".

Policy 6: Subsidize the car again. Guangzhou and Foshan are already ahead. When Guangzhou buys new energy vehicles, the government subsidizes individuals 6.5438+0 million yuan to replace the national six new vehicles, and the government subsidizes individuals 3,000 yuan. Personal subsidies for buying Liu Guo's new car in Foshan range from 2000 to 5000 yuan. After Guangzhou and Foshan, I believe there will be more places to follow up.

The oil price has been reduced for you, the highway has been exempted, the license plate has disappeared and the tax has been reduced. If possible, the car will be subsidized. With such a good national policy, how dare you not buy a car?

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This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.