Musk platform, wall street crazy buy! Is bitcoin skyrocketing an American conspiracy?
On 2021March 13, Bitcoin soared above $60,000. Behind the skyrocketing bitcoin is the madness of Musk, and the crazy purchase of it by Wall Street and Silicon Valley giants.
For example, the gray fund introduced to you before currently holds more than 650,000 bitcoins, accounting for 3% of the total amount of bitcoins, with a value of more than 38 billion US dollars. One of the gold owners behind the gray fund is the famous female version of Buffett on Wall Street.
In February of 20021year, Tesla announced that it would spend $65.438+0.5 billion to acquire Bitcoin. In just over a month, the profit may have reached $654.38+0 billion, exceeding the money earned by Tesla in selling cars in the past year.
The madness of Wall Street has puzzled many people. Is Bitcoin an American conspiracy against the Eastern Powers? Many media also took this opportunity to publicize it. The United States is monopolizing Bitcoin, so beware of the currency war launched by the United States.
As an 8-year blockchain player, I don't know how many times I have heard similar arguments. Bitcoin and blockchain have developed for so many years, and I can still hear this statement. Now I am doing financial science, and I feel obligated to make this matter clear to everyone. The data sources of this issue include Chainalysis, Cryptocompare, Emerging Financial Center of Cambridge University, BTC.com and Bitcoin.com. Before the official start, I will focus on those who are not concerned.
After deciding to do this issue, I read big V's view that Bitcoin is a conspiracy of Americans in the market, which is summarized as follows:
Wall Street and Silicon Valley in the United States buy bitcoin in large quantities, and American giants are bitcoin platforms in order to attract investors from other countries to enter the sheepfold like sheep, and then harvest them and exchange their cheaper and cheaper dollars for high-quality assets from other countries.
At first glance, it seems very reasonable and logical, but what I want to tell you is that these people either don't understand it themselves or understand it themselves, but for the attention of bloggers, or for some reason, they insist on reversing black and white and telling everyone that Bitcoin is an American conspiracy, creating panic. If it is the former, at best, the understanding of Bitcoin is not in place, at best, it is stupid, if it is the latter, it is broken.
Let's just say that anyone who tells you that a country or an individual can monopolize Bitcoin is a liar.
In the bitcoin world, computing power is king. What is computing power? As I said before, Bitcoin is actually a big ledger, and everyone can keep accounts, and there are generous rewards for keeping accounts. At present, anyone can get 6.25 bitcoins by leaving a page in the account book, according to Beijing time 2021March 23rd 1: 15: 359365438.
Bookkeeping can earn a high income, so many people want to keep it. How to decide who will keep the accounts at this time?
So every participant has to do a math problem, and whoever works it out first will get the right to keep accounts and get the corresponding income.
The characteristic of this math problem is that the forward operation is very simple, and the reverse operation is very difficult, so it is difficult to try one by one.
For example, there are 500 baked wheat cakes in two warehouses of Wuhan University. It is easy to know how many baked wheat cakes are in one warehouse. But if I only tell you that there are 1000 baked wheat cakes in two warehouses and ask how many are in each warehouse, the problem will not be simple. If you are unlucky, you have to guess hundreds of times to get the correct result.
The so-called computing power is simply understood as the number of such operations per second. The faster the operation speed, the greater the probability of calculating the result first, and the greater the possibility of obtaining bitcoin bookkeeping rights.
With the development of Bitcoin, the computing power of Bitcoin has been continuously enhanced in recent years. At present, it is 1.6 * 10 20h per second, which is equivalent to the total computing power of the TOP500 supercomputers in the world, 500,000 times.
Whoever can master the computing power of 5 1% of the bitcoin network can control bitcoin. So where is most of Bitcoin's computing power? The answer is, China.
According to the data of the Emerging Financial Center (CCAF) of Cambridge University in April 2020, although the proportion of computing power in China has declined, it is still as high as 65%. The United States, which ranks second, accounts for only 7%, which is close to Russian, and China arrives in China by province. One Xinjiang autonomous region is equivalent to five United States. In terms of bitcoin computing power, the United States is totally unqualified to talk to China from the standpoint of strength.
In addition, eight of the top ten mineral pools in the world are in China, and the founders of the other two 1 are from China. The only person in the world who ever controlled the 5 1% computing power of Bitcoin came from China. In addition, the world's three major mining machine manufacturers are all from China. Because of this, it is often said that China monopolized bitcoin mining.
Just ask here, if Bitcoin is a conspiracy of the United States, will the United States hand over the control of Bitcoin to China?
If Bitcoin is a conspiracy, then according to the logic of those big V's, Americans should suspect that Bitcoin is a conspiracy of China.
The second question is, can the United States monopolize bitcoin by buying bitcoin, and then manipulate the price of bitcoin to cut leeks around the world?
Theoretically, it is possible. In theory, anyone can do it.
This is the chart of bitcoin turnover from 20 1 1 to 20 18.
Before 20 13, bitcoin transactions were mainly in US dollars. With the establishment of domestic exchanges, after 20 13, RMB dominated bitcoin transactions, and the pricing power of bitcoin began to shift to China. In the red part of the picture, RMB transactions account for more than 80% for a long time, so China also has unparalleled influence on the bitcoin market.
Until September 4, 20 17, seven ministries and commissions issued a ban on buying bitcoin in RMB to prevent financial risks. 14 On September 4th, btc China, a large domestic digital currency exchange, announced that it would stop bitcoin trading, and bitcoin plummeted 16% that day.
In just half a month, Bitcoin dropped from a minimum of $5,000 to $3,000, a drop of 40%.
Whether it is more than 90% of the transaction volume or the absolute impact of the ban on bitcoin prices, it illustrates the same problem. During this period, the pricing power of Bitcoin belongs to China.
Later, with the closure of a large number of domestic exchanges, the RMB trading volume of Bitcoin gradually went to zero. However, as shown in the figure, USDT began to rise after RMB trading was banned.
By the way, according to popular science here, USDT is a stable currency. The so-called currency stability means that their currency is very stable, unlike Bitcoin, USDT against the US dollar, 1USDT= 1 US dollar. Here, you may have questions. It's so troublesome, why not just use dollars?
This is a good question. When you can buy and sell bitcoin directly in dollars, it is certainly more convenient to use dollars directly. But what if the dollar is banned from trading bitcoin?
Considering that the trading volume of RMB is as high as 90% to zero, everyone should know what the rise of USDT means.
As can be seen from the figure, although the proportion of USDT transactions is lower than that of RMB transactions, it still accounts for about 60% of bitcoin transactions, and as far as I know, the people who like to trade with USDT are all from China. In other words, up to now, the China market still has a strong influence on Bitcoin.
To sum up, China used to be the undisputed number one in both computing power and trading volume.
However, China's right to speak is declining in both computing power and trading volume.
The attentive audience should remember what I said before. Although China still dominates bitcoin mining, the proportion of computing power in China is declining, while that in the United States and Russia is increasing.
This is computing power.
Transaction ratio: After the domestic exchanges were retired, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) successively launched bitcoin futures.
Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of new york Stock Exchange, also started to organize digital currency Stock Exchange.
After entering 2020, Bitcoin began to flow into the North American Exchange at an accelerated rate. According to the data of Chainalysis, in the second week of June 2020 165438+ 10, the number of bitcoins flowing into North American exchanges reached 2 16000, which was more than 7000 times higher than that in early 2020. In June 5438 +2020 10, the East Asia Exchange lost 240,000 bitcoins.
In other words, North American investors may be the biggest winners in this big bull market.
Someone once gave an example that might not be appropriate, which was about the cotton market. As a producer, a country has worked hard to produce cotton, but in the end it has no pricing power.
In the face of the same bitcoin, some people avoid it, some people try to surrender, some people accept it gladly, and some people always call it a scam. It was not until they reached 400 thousand that they found that there was no chance of being cheated at all.
Finally, let's look back at the opening question. Is Bitcoin an American Conspiracy?
My answer is, not in the past, maybe in the future.
We have four great inventions. We have Zheng He's voyages to the West, and we have thousands of families from Qian Qian flying in the sky. However, because I missed the industrial revolution, I was finally forced to sign treaty of nanking, treaty of shimonoseki and the Treaty of Sorrow and Ugliness. I was called the sick man of East Asia and was humiliated. China people and dogs are not allowed in. Do we suffer less from foreigners?
We used to be the leader in the blockchain field. Will we miss the next wave of technology? Envy Americans soaring in cyberspace?
If there is a country that can control, monopolize, use or destroy Bitcoin, I hope that country is China.
So let go of prejudice and embrace the future!
References:
1. Why is Bitcoin surging? What's the difference between this rally and 20 17? Team Chainalysis
2. Bitcoin power analysis has indirect influence and miners' economics.
3. China's leading position in the bitcoin mining industry will be challenged, Felip Solé
4. American Bitcoin holders are worried about China's control over the mining network.
5. China's BTC hash value is declining, which is why we are optimistic about Bitcoin, Simon Chandler.
6. Hot Spots: The market structure of Bitcoin has changed, with the North American Stock Exchange coming from behind and Reuters News Department.
7. Musk platform bitcoin: The domestic "leek" has no choice but to step on the air, and the pricing power has been transferred to Wall Street Chen.
8. Why did the price of Bitcoin quadruple after the pricing power was transferred from China to other countries? Zhou Yanyan
9. Bitcoin hit a record high 12. Why is this bull market "quiet"? Zou luhui
10. Bitcoin becomes a "currency". Is it possible for the United States to cut the global "leek"? Song Yafen and others.
1 1. Global Bitcoin Mining Unit Analysis, Jishi Communication
Behind the negative premium of 12. USDT: Wang Ye, the pricing power of Bitcoin is shifting.
It is for investors' reference only and does not constitute investment advice.