Fundamentally speaking, the effectiveness of supply-side reform will be basically consolidated this year, and the supply side will not see a sharp decrease last year and an immediate increase this year. The demander needs verification. It is almost certain that the demand for real estate will drop sharply, and the substitution effect is the demand for infrastructure in various places. What is the specific situation of the balance between the two? More detailed data verification is needed, and we will continue to observe it later.
Technically, the long-term trend of most cyclical stocks is in a relatively strong upward trend, especially steel and construction machinery, and the situation of large-scale capital intervention is obvious.
Psychologically, the hesitation about cyclical stocks mainly comes from the contradiction between high futures prices and low stock prices. Then, as long as the futures price can remain unchanged, that is, continue to rise or consolidate at a high level, it may bring about the release of the performance of cyclical stocks such as coal, steel and nonferrous metals. It will also bring more confidence to those who hesitate to buy.
Secondly, let's look at growth stocks.
Fundamentally, although the growth stocks headed by GEM submitted a relatively good report card last year. However, compared with the crazy rise in previous years, the current valuation is only relatively reasonable, and it has not reached the stage of attracting funds to enter crazily. In addition, the path of maintaining high growth by continuous acquisition and expansion will also change, and then it is more likely to rely on the solid growth of excellent enterprises themselves.
Technically, you can look at the situation where LeTV and Oriental Fortune are the main index stocks. The stock price is near the recent low point, and the medium and long-term moving averages such as the monthly line and the annual line are in a short state. In this case, it is possible to take a wave of rebound and return to the moving average, but the possibility of a direct reversal of the bull market is almost zero.
Psychologically, after the collective rejection at the end of last year, growth stocks ushered in a wave of bargain-hunting market at the beginning of the year. This wave of bargain-hunting market probably appeared after LeTV fell sharply on March 3 and other GEM stocks refused to fall. At present, this wave of rebound is still likely to continue. But this is just a rebound, and the back and forth after the rebound is normal.
Therefore, on the whole, at least in the first half of this year, the main battlefield of the stock market will still be the main battlefield of cyclical stocks, and steel, construction machinery, coal, state-owned enterprise reform and other sectors will also be hunted by large funds. Some growth stocks can be initially laid out, but they should be treated with a rebound mentality. Of course, a few growth stocks supported by national policies should be treated differently. At the end of the bear market, some high-quality growth stocks will take the lead out of the big market, such as the recent smart sector.