Data parsing
Since June, the domestic epidemic situation has improved, the government's economic stimulus plan has gradually landed, and the domestic economy has rebounded sharply. In June, the purchasing managers' index of manufacturing industry, business activity index of non-manufacturing industry and PMI comprehensive output index were 50.2%, 54.7% and 54. 1%, respectively, which were 0.6, 6.9 and 5.7 percentage points higher than that of last month. All three indexes have rebounded to above zero, indicating that the overall economic prosperity level of China has rebounded sharply. At present, the real estate stimulus policy of domestic investment continues to increase, and the real estate sales end has obviously picked up, returning to the high level of 2 1 year in 20 years; Infrastructure continued to exert its strength, issuing special treasury bonds close to 2 trillion yuan, infrastructure funds were exceptionally abundant, and the construction site continued to improve; The manufacturing industry remains resilient, and investment in high-tech industries continues to be high; The consumer side rebounded sharply due to the relaxation of epidemic prevention and control measures. On the whole, the short-term domestic demand side will obviously pick up, the medium and long-term investment side will continue to exert strength, consumption will recover, and the demand side will gradually pick up. In terms of production, industrial production picked up faster. On the one hand, the upstream energy has continued the policy of increasing production and ensuring supply; On the other hand, domestic demand broke out and entered the construction period, and industrial production is expected to rebound rapidly in the later period. In terms of prices, the price index continued to fall sharply in June, mainly due to factors such as the sharp slowdown in the European and American economies, the weakening of external demand, the sharp drop in commodity prices and the easing of domestic imported inflationary pressures. At present, both domestic supply and demand are picking up, the real estate market is picking up obviously, automobile production and demand are picking up obviously, and infrastructure continues to exert strength. Demand recovery is expected to be strong, and the price end of domestic demand-oriented commodities is strongly supported. However, the European and American economies have slowed sharply, recession fears have risen, and the prices of external demand-oriented commodities have remained weak.
In June, the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of manufacturing industry was 50.2%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the critical point, and the manufacturing industry resumed its expansion. Mainly because the situation of domestic epidemic prevention and control has continued to improve, and a package of policies and measures to stabilize the economy has accelerated its effectiveness; However, the data is less than market expectations, indicating that the economic recovery is weak in the short term. On the demand side, the new order index was 50.4%, up 2.2 percentage points from last month, and returned to above the critical point, indicating that the demand in the manufacturing market has improved. In terms of production, the production index was 52.8%, up 3. 1 percentage point from last month, and returned to above the critical point, indicating that the manufacturing industry has accelerated its recovery. The import and export index dropped sharply. The new export order index and import index were 49.5% and 49.2%, respectively, up by 3.3 and 4. 1 percentage point from last month, mainly due to the recovery of foreign trade and domestic trade supply chains and the demand after the epidemic situation improved.
As a result of the recovery, the overall foreign trade boom has rebounded sharply. In terms of overseas economies, the manufacturing and service industries in Europe and the United States fell sharply in June, and the economic growth rate slowed down significantly due to the accelerated tightening of the Federal Reserve.
The price index continued to fall sharply. In June, the purchase price index and ex-factory price index of major raw materials were 52.0% and 46.3%, respectively, down 3.8 and 3.2 percentage points from the previous month, and dropped sharply for three consecutive months. On the one hand, the recovery of domestic demand is less than expected in the short term, and domestic prices are weak; On the other hand, after the Fed accelerated the pace and intensity of raising interest rates, the economic growth rate of the United States slowed sharply, and the prices of energy, non-ferrous metals and other commodities fell sharply. At present, the monetary tightening in Europe and America is accelerating, the demand is obviously slowing down, and the prices of upstream raw materials continue to be weak; However, domestic demand has rebounded or formed some support, and the global upstream raw materials and energy cost pressures have eased as a whole.
The inventory of finished products decreased, while the inventory of raw materials increased slightly. The inventory index of finished products decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 48.6, and the inventory index of raw materials increased by 0.2 percentage points to 48. 1. In terms of raw material inventory, since June, with the gradual recovery of the domestic economy, the demand for raw material procurement has increased, and enterprises have increased their stocking, but the downstream demand has not responded as expected, resulting in a slight accumulation of inventory. In terms of finished goods inventory, on the one hand, due to the slowdown in external demand, production slowed down; On the other hand, domestic demand recovered less than expected, and enterprises took the initiative to reduce prices and go to the library.
In June, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 54.7%, up 6.9 percentage points from the previous month, and returned to the expansion range. The prosperity level of non-manufacturing industry has obviously rebounded for two consecutive months. In June, the domestic epidemic situation improved and the epidemic prevention and control measures were relaxed; The service industry rebounded sharply, and the business activity index of the service industry was 54.3%, up 7.2 percentage points from last month. Among them, the business activity index of retail, railway transportation, road transportation, air transportation, postal services, monetary and financial services, capital market services and other industries was above 55.0%; The business activity index of real estate, residential services and other industries continues to be below the critical point. According to the market expectation, the expected index of business activities is 6 1.3%, which is 5.7 percentage points higher than last month and higher than the critical point, indicating that the confidence of non-manufacturing enterprises in the recent industry recovery and development has been significantly enhanced. In terms of industries, the expected index of business activities in the construction industry was 63. 1%, up 5.2 percentage points from last month, mainly due to the sharp recovery in the sales end of real estate stimulus policies and the sustained development of infrastructure; The expected index of business activities in the service industry was 6 1.0%, up 5.8 percentage points from last month, mainly due to the relaxation of epidemic prevention and control measures, and the inhibitory effect of the epidemic on the service industry was greatly weakened.
In June, the comprehensive output index of PMI was 54. 1%, up 5.7 percentage points from last month, indicating that the production and operation of Chinese enterprises generally showed a recovery expansion. The manufacturing production index and the non-manufacturing business activity index, which constitute the PMI comprehensive output index, are 52.8% and 54.7%, respectively, reflecting the obvious positive changes in the production and operation of enterprises compared with May. However, there are still many uncertainties in the current domestic and international economic environment. It is necessary to further refine and implement a package of policies and measures to stabilize the economy, actively expand effective demand, and consolidate the momentum of economic recovery and development.
This paper comes from the study of East China Sea futures.