At present, the popularity of domestic and foreign stock markets has increased, and the rise of stock markets has driven the popularity of financial markets, and commodity markets have generally followed suit. The improvement of market confidence is an important factor supporting the rise of metals. The continuous reduction of stocks has made the market realize that the global copper consumption situation is not as bad as previously thought. Based on the current international macroeconomic situation and the fundamental support of copper prices, it is unlikely that copper prices will fall further. It is expected that copper prices will continue to fluctuate upward in the afternoon. The United States is rich in economic data. The previous market was close to panic, and everyone was talking about a double-dip recession. Recent data show that the sales of new homes in the United States increased by 23.6% in June compared with the previous month, with an annual rate of 330,000, higher than the estimated 320,000, with an increase of 23.6% compared with the previous month, the largest increase since May 1980. The recovery of the real estate market has seriously affected the recovery of related industries and household consumption, thus forming a strong support for copper prices. In addition, the rebound of the real estate market is definitely good news for the economic recovery in the United States, which shows that from now on, people's worries about a double dip in the economy have begun to weaken.
Domestically, according to the economic data in June, the economic growth slowed down, while the inflationary pressure weakened, which greatly reduced the necessity of further tightening policies. It is unlikely that more stringent control measures will be introduced in the future, which significantly improved the market's pessimistic expectations for policies, and the stock market continued to rebound, which also boosted the popularity of the metal market to some extent. However, due to the lack of clear policy change signals, macroeconomic operation and capital pressure will still restrict the upward space of the domestic market. It is expected that the market will not rise sharply in the near future, but will rise sharply.
Judging from the seasonal trend of copper prices, copper prices are in a period of shock and rest before the peak of autumn consumption in the middle and late July. If there are no external factors, it is difficult for the market to fluctuate greatly, and it will generally show a volatile pattern. Although this year is the off-season, the pressure of copper surplus is much smaller than in previous years, which can be seen from the trend decline of inventory. LME inventory decreased from 555,000 tons in February 17 to 4140,000 tons in the near future, with a decrease of 25%, while COMEX inventory decreased from104,000 tons in February/9 to the current100,000 tons, with a decrease of 3.8%. Finally, Shanghai's inventory began to decline in early May. Inventories of the three major exchanges have declined one after another, reflecting the recovery of copper consumption capacity in the global economy. The trend decline in inventory will be another important reason to support the return of copper prices to high levels.
In a word, the road to global economic recovery is tortuous, but it has become knowledge that the economy is rising. In the early stage, people's worries about the double dip in the economy weakened, their expectations for the economic prospects improved, and market sentiment began to be optimistic. In addition, copper stocks and copper consumption continued to decline.