"I have been cutting very fast and cutting all the time, but I still haven't got rid of the ending of the explosion." Mr. Hu, a major futures company in the south, told the china securities journal reporter with regret that he was almost wiped out in the unexpected surge of commodities in the past two days, and now he has entered a rest state of stopping trading. "The account has been withdrawn a lot, and almost all the money earned last year has been lost."
The short nightmare of "red"
Tuesday night was a sleepless night for Mr. Hu, who held a large number of empty orders. After the market opened at 9: 00 pm, the futures market varieties continued to rise during the day: the black system rose sharply, and the futures market hot coils, rebar, iron ore, coke and other varieties all rose by about 5% or even higher; Silver rose by nearly 4%; Cotton rose by more than 4%.
For Mr. Liu, who is also short-selling, the red futures market on Wednesday was a nightmare. "I emptied asphalt at a cost of 1945 yuan/ton, but I still lost a lot. Before March, my understanding of the market rhythm was relatively clear. Since April, I can't understand the logic of the market. " He said.
As of the close of the futures market on Wednesday, coke, rebar, iron ore and Zheng Mian had daily limit, coking coal rose by 5.08%, rapeseed meal rose by 3.95%, rubber rose by 3.9 1%, silver rose by 3.84%, eggs rose by 3.69%, soybeans rose by 3.59%, thermal coal rose by 3.23%, and soybean meal, starch, corn and soybean meal.
Different from the previous days, the increase of agricultural products has accelerated, which has constituted a situation in which the market is in full swing.
In fact, since April 1 1, the upward trend of agricultural products has already begun.
According to the statistics of china securities journal, since April 1 1, the Wenhua Financial Agricultural Products Index has rebounded by nearly 8.8%, and the soft goods sector has been among the top gainers, with an increase of 8.9%; The grain sector rose by 8.1%in the same period; Due to the large increase in the previous period, the oil sector became the bottom plate of this round of increase, but the increase also reached 6. 1%.
Qin Zhi, an analyst at Shangtong News Agency, believes that cotton and sugar futures have gained a lot of favorable support in the soft commodity market in the early stage, or may become the new favorite of funds. The main reason is the tight supply and demand caused by extreme weather and strong demand. From the supply point of view, the market pressure has eased, and the news that supply is in short supply is frequent. In particular, some top institutions recently raised their annual sugar supply shortage forecasts, which greatly exceeded expectations. Secondly, with the resurgence of extreme weather hype, La Nina's influence may surpass that of El Ni? o, at least in the market expectation.
Regarding the rising prices of agricultural products, Wang, an analyst of new era futures agricultural products, believes that although the global grain output has been high year after year, the global grain inventory is close to the highest level in 30 years, and the oversupply is serious. From the supply level, the bear market foundation of agricultural products has not wavered, but this does not prevent the market price from bottoming out.
"Because of the old high inventory factor, it has been included in the price of agricultural products. The current financial dollar factor, the rotation and spillover effect of the bull market fluctuation of commodities, and the increase of La Nina probability in the second half of the year are all enough to trigger the rebound of short-term trends, which will be the first stage of the rise of agricultural products. Once there is a change in weather patterns that threaten production, it will start a bull market. In the recent period when commodities are reduced to assets, agricultural products represented by dregs and oils have great potential for future growth. The price of live pigs has recently reached a record high. The data on hand rebounded in March, which means that the demand for far-end feed has growth potential. These positive signals need to be further explored by the market. " He said.
Asset linkage pushes up the price of agricultural products
Specifically, in this round of rising prices of agricultural products, the rise of cotton is particularly prominent. Affected by the rotation policy and the periodic replenishment of textile enterprises, Zheng Mian 1609 contract experienced four daily limit in just eight trading days, with an increase of more than 2 1%. Up to now, China cotton price index CC Index(3 128B) continues to rise in 82 yuan to 12083 yuan/ton, and cotton prices in the spot market generally rise.
In the feed sector, the expansion of temporary storage stimulates the corn in North China to return to the northeast, and the consumption of grain sources is expected to continue, and the oversold price begins to rebound; In terms of soybean meal and rapeseed meal, in the warm bullish atmosphere of the futures market yesterday, the spot price of domestic rapeseed meal was generally raised, and the spot market trend was firm. Spot soybean meal also rose strongly, with an overall price increase of 70-80 yuan/ton yesterday.
In the international market, funds have also launched the pursuit of agricultural products, and the price of US soybean futures has soared to a nine-month high.
According to the report released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), speculative funds held net long orders 1002 16 lots in the soybean futures and options section of the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) in the past week, and as of April 20 12, it was the net long orders since the beginning of June. As of Tuesday and April this week, the main contract of Chicago CBOT soybean meal, soybean and corn increased by 9%, 5.5% and 8.2% respectively, and the main contract of new york ice cotton increased by 5.6%.
In the strategy weekly published on April 17, CITIC Futures pointed out that from the macro environment, both China and the United States are in a period of gradually rising inflation, and China is experiencing "quasi-stagflation". Historically, commodities usually performed well during periods of low growth and high inflation. Generally speaking, energy commodities and agricultural products have a high correlation with inflation because they are directly related to CPI calculation. Because energy commodities are difficult to store, their rolling income is more prominent when inflation is higher than expected; The recent upward correlation between agricultural products and unexpected inflation is mainly due to the tight supply and demand caused by extreme weather and strong demand, and agricultural products are also sensitive to unexpected inflation. At present, the domestic black and chemical sectors have increased greatly, and the unexpected inflation under the stagflation environment will gradually push up the prices of agricultural products.
The aftermath of commodities has not yet calmed down.
According to industry insiders, with the recent increase in volatility in the futures market, the phenomenon of capital flooding into the futures market is obvious.
Yesterday, a source learned from a futures company that its brokerage headquarters recently