On may 2 1 day, China merchants securities reported that gold and molybdenum shares (60 1958. SH): The resource valuation is relatively dominant, and the molybdenum price may increase greatly.
Recently, we investigated gold and molybdenum shares and visited Jinduicheng molybdenum mine. It is believed that molybdenum metal may make up for the increase in the near future. Considering the company's relative advantages in resource valuation, investors are advised to seize the trend investment opportunities.
Molybdenum metal is more likely to make up for the increase: the price of futures varieties of nonferrous metal belts has rebounded obviously since the beginning of 2009, and the increase of copper prices once exceeded 50%. However, the price of non-ferrous metals without futures such as molybdenum dropped by 8.2% compared with the beginning of the year. We believe that the increase of small metals generally lags behind that of large metals with futures. In the future, with the recovery of economic fundamentals, the price of molybdenum will rise to a certain extent. In fact, the demand structure and fundamentals of molybdenum are similar to those of nickel. More than 70% of the output is used for alloy steel production, but the price trend of molybdenum lags far behind that of nickel.
The increase of steel output drives the demand for molybdenum metal: Under the background of investment promoting GDP, we are optimistic about the steel output in China, and it is expected that the proportion of high-end alloy steel will increase year by year. In 2007 and 2008, the growth rate of molybdenum consumption in China was about 50%, and we expect this growth trend to continue in the future.
Production enterprises stop production and limit production to support the molybdenum price: the domestic ferromolybdenum price has dropped from a high of more than 300,000/ton to the current 1 1.2 million yuan/ton, a decrease of nearly 70%. In this context, high-cost first-class molybdenum production enterprises have stopped production and limited production, and second-class molybdenum production enterprises have also mined low-grade molybdenum ores. We expect the output to stop or decrease to 20% of the global output.
The company has obvious advantages in molybdenum resources: at present, the company has a high-quality molybdenum resource reserve of 1.23 tons, and the resource reserve prospect is optimistic. Jinduicheng Molybdenum Mine and Ruyang Molybdenum Mine are the top primary molybdenum mines in the world, which can produce molybdenum resources convenient for deep processing. At present, the company is one of the few resource enterprises with 65,438+0.00% self-sufficiency in China.
The company's performance is highly sensitive to the price of molybdenum: in 2009, for every increase of 65,438+0,000 yuan/ton of molybdenum metal, the company's performance increased by 0.03 yuan, and in 2065,438+00, the output of molybdenum metal increased, and the performance sensitivity increased to 0.04 yuan.
The company has the advantage of relative resource valuation: calculating the ratio of the market value of major domestic resource enterprises to the value of resource reserves, the western mining industry, gold and molybdenum shares and Jiangxi copper industry account for 65,438+04%, 65,438+07.6% and 65,438+07.6% respectively, which is the best relative resource valuation advantage. At the same time, considering the excellent resource quality, low mining cost and optimistic resource prospect reserves of Gold and Molybdenum and Jiangxi Copper,
Investment rating of "cautiously recommend A": It is estimated that the EPS of the company in 2009- 1 1 will be 0.25 yuan, 0.45 yuan and 0.70 yuan respectively, and the PE of the company in 2009- 1 1 will be 54 times, 30 times and1respectively according to the current share price.
Great wall securities 5.2 1 shantui shares (000680. SZ): A steadily growing low-valued bulldozer leader.
China's largest manufacturer of bulldozer and track assembly parts. The company has an absolute advantage in the domestic bulldozer market, with a market share of over 50%. In addition, the accessories business accounts for about 35% of the company's revenue, and complete sets of accessories with excellent performance are also the competitive advantage of mountain bikes.
The investment income of Xiaosongshan Push is also an important profit source of the company. Xiaosongshan Tui is the leader in the domestic excavator industry, and its current investment income accounts for about 20% of the company's total profit.
Expand new business. At present, the company is actively involved in small excavators, forklifts, concrete machinery and other fields. Because of the manufacturing experience of Xiaosongshan main excavator and its advantages in the field of parts matching, we are optimistic about the development prospects of the company's small excavators. In addition, we believe that the forklift business can also contribute some benefits to the company.
The first quarter was the lowest performance in 2009. The gross profit margin of the company in the first quarter was only 65,438+03.93% due to the increase in the sales proportion of small and medium tonnage bulldozers and the high price of raw materials. With the cost reduction, the company's gross profit margin and investment income from Xiaosongshan will increase, and the company's performance will continue to improve. The second quarter is the traditional sales season of construction machinery, and the sales revenue will be significantly improved compared with the first quarter. The performance of the interim report is worth looking forward to.
Earnings forecast and investment rating. We estimate that the EPS of the company in 2009- 10 will be 0.73 yuan and 0.92 yuan, and the corresponding dynamic P/E ratios will be 15 times and 12 times. Due to the low valuation and improved performance, we recommend the company.
Highlights and risks. Although it is difficult to see improvement in exports in the short term, future exports are still the main focus of the company. The company's main risk is also exchange gains and losses related to export business.