At the beginning of the new year, the prices of the means of production represented by crude oil, non-ferrous metals and steel in the international market have all gone up, affecting the nerves of all aspects of China's economy. The futures price of crude oil in new york market rose from 42. 12 USD/barrel on March 3rd to 5 1.48 USD/barrel on March 3rd. London's three-month comprehensive copper rose from 10 USD/ton on October 4th to $3,265 USD/ton on February 28th, hitting a five-year high of/kloc-0. In the same period, comprehensive aluminum in London increased from 1.805 USD/ton to 1.924.5 USD/ton, and zinc increased from 1.654.38+0.77.5 USD/ton to 1.409 USD/ton. China Steel Plant reached an annual ore price agreement with two major iron ore producers in the world, raising the price by 71.5%; International iron ore prices rose sharply, and the steel price index CRU also rose slightly during the year. ..... Reason: American factors contributed to the growth. As far as the long-term trend is concerned, the rising price of means of production is a portrayal of the adjustment of the price relationship between downstream products and upstream non-renewable resources caused by technological progress on a global scale. From the medium-term analysis, the recovery of the US economy, the continued weakness of the US dollar and the good expectation of China's economic growth are the common reasons for the strong prices of major means of production in the international market. According to the data released by the US Department of Commerce on 25th, in the fourth quarter of 2004, the annual growth rate of US GDP was 3.8%, which was higher than the market expectation. At the same time, it also made the annual growth rate of American economy reach 4.4% in 2004, much higher than 3% in 2003. The strong recovery of American economy has stimulated the demand for means of production in the international market and pushed up the prices of related products. As for the US dollar, although the exchange rate of the US dollar against other major currencies has rebounded slightly since the end of last year, in the opinion of analysts, the US dollar is still not out of the shadow of weakness, and its future trend is not optimistic due to the persistent twin deficits. In the international market, crude oil, non-ferrous metals and other means of production are all denominated in dollars, and the weakness of the dollar has not changed, at least it cannot be the driving force to reverse the upward trend of raw material commodity prices in recent two years. In particular, the international iron ore price rose sharply year-on-year, which is closely related to the decline of the US dollar in the past year. As far as China's economy is concerned, last year's macro-control made the market have strong expectations for its growth slowdown. At the beginning of macro-control, the domestic steel price plummeted, further affecting the international market price. But judging from the recent operation, China's economy has maintained a steady and rapid growth rate. Because the demand of China occupies a decisive position in the international market of means of production, its good macroeconomic operation has undoubtedly injected a shot in the arm for the rise of raw material prices. In addition to these common factors, in terms of specific varieties, the price increase also includes some personalized factors, especially in the short term. Guo-hong Li, a researcher at Galaxy Securities, believes that the recent increase in international crude oil prices is due to the cold current attack in the United States and Europe, which has led to an increase in heating oil. The uncertainty brought by the nuclear issue and the earthquake to Iran, a major oil producer, has also pushed up the oil price. Regarding the price increase of colored varieties, Guotai Zhou Jun Anming believes that price fluctuation has certain seasonal characteristics, and colored varieties have relatively good market performance in the first quarter of each year. In addition, during the Spring Festival, some domestic production enterprises stopped production, which aggravated the contradiction between supply and demand in the short term and correspondingly affected the supply and demand relationship in the international market. Trend: High shock "High shock" has almost become the unanimous view of analysts on the future trend of various means of production prices. Yong Zhiqiang of Haitong Securities believes that although the CRU index is difficult to break through the historical high set in June last year at 5438+ 10, the basic factors such as the depreciation of the US dollar, the economic growth of China and the economic recovery of the United States and Japan have not changed, and the international steel price is still difficult to be lowered due to the rising cost caused by the rising iron ore price. Zheng Dong of Guosen Securities believes that with the new international iron ore production capacity put into operation next year and the effect of rectifying the iron ore circulation order in China, iron ore prices may peak and fall back. For non-ferrous metals, after the general increase of various sub-varieties since the beginning of the year, its future trend may be divided. Most people in the industry believe that compared with 2004, the global gap between supply and demand of refined copper will be narrowed this year, and the price of copper is also expected to fall. At the same time, people in the industry agree that there will still be a big gap between the supply and demand of zinc during the year, driven by the strong demand of downstream galvanized sheet and other industries and the tight supply of zinc concentrate in the international market, which will support the further strengthening of international zinc prices. 65% of the output comes from the Middle East and 40% of the demand comes from the United States, which constitutes the basic framework of supply and demand in the international crude oil market. Therefore, the demand growth brought by the economic recovery in the United States and the hidden worries buried by the political uncertainty in Iraq and Iran in the Middle East will form a strong support for maintaining the high price of crude oil. Impact: With the deepening of the integration of China's economy with the world economy, the continuous increase in the prices of global means of production will undoubtedly have an important impact on China's macro-economy and the operation of related industries. According to China's crude oil import volume1.200 million tons last year, if the annual average price of crude oil rises by 10 USD/barrel, the import cost will directly increase by more than 8 billion USD. Rising costs, on the one hand, will reduce economic growth, on the other hand, may form imported inflation. The rise in the prices of basic raw materials such as non-ferrous metals and iron ore will have a similar impact. From the industry point of view, the rise in crude oil prices will make the oil exploitation industry a direct beneficiary, while the oil refining, petrochemical raw materials and other links in the industrial chain will often benefit from the rise in crude oil prices because of their strong cost transfer ability. However, the downstream industries such as rubber, plastics and chemical fiber have weak cost transfer ability due to full competition, and their profitability will be affected by high oil prices. In addition, the transportation industry, including aviation and public transportation, will also be affected to varying degrees. Analysts believe that due to the sharp rise in iron ore prices, steel enterprises are facing the pressure of rising costs this year. Due to the gap between supply and demand and high added value, plate products can effectively solve the adverse effects caused by rising costs, while construction steel is difficult to do this. It is estimated that the annual profit level of the steel industry will drop from 80 billion in 2004 to about 70 billion.