(I) Current situation of copper resources in the world

Although the global annual mining copper metal scale exceeds 6,543,800,000 tons, with the continuous increase of global copper exploration investment in the new round of mining economic cycle, new copper resources are continuously discovered around the world, which makes the world's copper resources reserves generally increase and the supply guarantee capacity continuously improve. However, due to the economic crisis in the fourth quarter of 2008, the investment in copper exploration decreased, which made the world's copper resources reserves decline slightly in 2009. According to the statistics of the US Geological Survey, the world copper reserves in 2009 were 540 million tons, a decrease of 1.8% compared with the previous year. Copper reserves are widely distributed in various countries and regions in the world, among which Chile has the largest reserves, accounting for 29.6% of the world total in 2009; Other countries with large reserves include the United States, Indonesia, Peru, Poland, Mexico, China, Australia and Russia (table 1).

Table 1 2007-2009 World Copper Resources and Reserves Distribution Unit: 10,000 tons (copper)

Source: mineral commodities abstract, 2007 ~ 20 10.

(B) Copper resources in China

Although China is one of the largest copper resources countries in the world, and its copper reserves rank sixth in the world, on the whole, China is still poor in copper resources. According to statistics, by the end of 2009, the national copper reserves were 146 14000 tons (an increase of 44,000 tons over the previous year), and the basic reserves were 295 10000 tons (an increase of 600,000 tons over the previous year). At present, China's copper reserves are mainly distributed in Jiangxi, Shanxi, Anhui, Yunnan, Gansu, Heilongjiang, Xinjiang, Sichuan and Inner Mongolia, accounting for about 82.8% of the national total (Table 2).

Table 2 Distribution unit of copper reserves in China in 2009: 10,000 tons (copper)

In 2009, the world economy showed signs of recovery, the price of non-ferrous metals stopped falling and rebounded, the domestic spot copper price went out of the V-shaped reversal, and the continued high price of copper products stimulated the investment in the extractive industry to strengthen, and the development scale continued to expand, which in turn prompted all sectors of society to increase investment in geological exploration, the number of newly discovered mines continued to increase, and the proven resource reserves increased. At the same time, due to the rebound of mineral products prices, the motivation of resource reserves identification has gradually increased, which has accelerated the trend of resource reserves identification into reserves and reversed the trend of resource reserves reduction.

Second, the production situation at home and abroad

(A) the world copper production situation

1. Copper concentrate production

In 2004, the world economy recovered, the market demand was strong, the supply was tight, and the market copper price continued to rise, which had great temptation to the majority of copper production enterprises. Although the lucrative profits have induced copper producers to try to restore or expand their production capacity, which has obviously led to the commissioning of new mine projects, in practice, the problems such as strikes, labor disputes and operational errors have become more prominent, which have offset the output of some new mines and led to the slow growth of world copper production in recent years. Especially after the outbreak of the world financial crisis in the fourth quarter of 2008, the world economy was weak, and the demand for copper was affected, which led to a continuous decline in copper prices, which directly affected the profits of copper mines and reduced production, which offset the slight increase in mine copper production in the first half of the year, making the world mine copper production basically the same as that of the previous year. However, in 2009, the world economy showed signs of recovery and gradually emerged from the gloom of the economic crisis. The demand for copper increased, and the price of copper rose. World mine copper output15.8 million tons, up 1.73% year on year (Table 3).

Table 3 World Copper Production from 2004 to 2009

Source: World Metal Statistics, 2005,12; World Metal Statistics 2008, 6; World Metal Statistics 2009, 2; Statistics of non-ferrous metals, 20 10/0,6

At present, there are more than 40 countries and regions mining copper in the world, but in terms of regional distribution, America is the core of copper mining production in the world, with an output of 89,765,438+million tons in 2009, accounting for 56.8% of the world total, especially Chile, with an output of 5.389 million tons, accounting for 341%of the world total; Secondly, China in Asia, Russia in Europe and Australia in Oceania are also important mining and copper producing areas in the world, but their production capacity is obviously not as good as that of Chile.

2. Production of refined copper

Copper concentrate is mainly used for smelting and producing refined copper, but the supply of copper concentrate is still the bottleneck of the development of copper industry in the world. Over the years, with the slow growth of world copper concentrate output, the world refined copper output is also slowly increasing. In 2009, the world refined copper output was18.598 million tons, an increase of 0.6% over the previous year (Table 4).

Table 4 World refined copper output from 2004 to 2009

sequential

Source: World Metal Statistics, 2005,12; World Metal Statistics 2008, 6; World Metal Statistics 2009, 2; Statistics of non-ferrous metals, 20 10/0,6

At present, although more than 40 countries or regions in the world produce refined copper, refined copper is a high energy-consuming industry, so developed countries generally do not encourage the development of copper smelting projects and advocate import consumption. For example, in Europe, the production scale of refined copper is basically stable between 3.3 million and 3.6 million tons, which cannot meet its own consumption demand; The production scale of refined copper in developed countries such as the United States, South Korea and Germany is also relatively stable. Only the vast number of developing countries, in order to meet their own development or export needs, continue to carry out above-ground smelting projects, making the output scale of refined copper constantly expand. In this regard, China is an obvious example. In 2009, China's refined copper output was about 465,438+0,654,38+0,000 tons, an increase of 8.8% over the previous year.

Based on the different concept of copper smelting project, the production of copper concentrate and its smelting area have changed, which means that the production place of copper concentrate is not necessarily its smelting place, which reveals that the world copper concentrate trade problem is more prominent. According to statistics, the world refined copper production is mainly concentrated in Asia and America. In 2009, the refined copper output of these two continents reached 8.082 million tons and 575 1 10,000 tons respectively, accounting for 43.5% and 30.9% of the global total respectively. In the next few years, such a pattern is unlikely to change fundamentally.

(B) China copper production situation

The outstanding characteristics of copper resources in China are that there are many small and medium-sized deposits, but few large and super-large deposits. Among the proven mineral deposits, only 3% are large and super-large, 9% are medium-sized and 88% are small. There are many associated minerals and few single minerals. These characteristics make the construction scale of copper mines in China generally small. After decades of intensive mining, the resource reserves of some mines have been greatly reduced, and some are even close to exhaustion. In the early years, although the country vigorously developed the copper mining industry, the production effect of copper concentrate (metal quantity) was not significant. In recent years, with the implementation of prospecting policy in crisis mines and the stimulation of high copper price in the market, the enthusiasm of mine expansion and utilization of low-grade resources is high, resulting in a significant increase in copper concentrate (metal quantity) output in the previous two years. In the fourth quarter of 2008, affected by the world financial crisis and the lower copper price, the profit of copper mine decreased and the mining enthusiasm decreased obviously. In 2009, the output of copper concentrate (metal quantity) in China was only 970,000 tons, which was basically the same as that of the previous year (Figure 1).

Figure11China copper output from 995 to 2009.

Influenced by the recovery of the world economy in 2009 and inspired by the high demand in China, the refined copper output in China increased significantly in 2009, reaching 4 1 1000000 tons, with an increase of 8.8% over the previous year. The gap between supply and demand of copper concentrate and refined copper in China is getting bigger and bigger. In 2009, China copper concentrate can only meet the smelting demand of 23.6%. Although the newly developed mines in Ashele, Xinjiang, Yulong, Tibet, Delny, Heilongjiang, Duobaoshan and Fujiawu, Jiangxi will be put into operation in the future, it is estimated that the domestic copper production capacity will increase by10.3 million tons/year before 2065,438+00, but it is reported that it will be 2065,438+00. Therefore, no matter how the situation changes, it is difficult to fundamentally change the situation of copper concentrate shortage in China in recent years.

Third, the domestic and international consumption situation

(a) World copper consumption situation

In 2004, the pace of global economic recovery accelerated and copper consumption increased steadily. In the fourth quarter of 2008, the financial crisis broke out in an all-round way, and the slowdown of world economic growth had a certain impact on copper consumption, which directly led to a sharp decline in refined copper consumption in major developed countries in Europe and America in 2009, with a year-on-year decline of 22.6% in Europe and 13.3% in America. However, driven by the consumption growth of developing countries led by China, the total world copper consumption still increased by 0.6% in 2009.

From a regional perspective, Asia is the largest copper consumption area in the world, with the largest consumption and an increasing trend year by year. In 2009, the consumption reached 1 1.68 million tons, an increase of 16.9% over the previous year. From a country perspective, the world copper consumption is mainly concentrated in China, the United States, Germany, Japan, South Korea and other countries, especially China, the United States and Germany. The consumption of copper is not only higher than 6,543,800 tons for a long time, but also accounts for more than half of the world consumption (Table 5).

Table 5 World refined copper consumption from 2004 to 2009

sequential

Source: World Metal Statistics, 2005,12; World Metal Statistics 2008, 6; World Metal Statistics 2009, 2; Statistics of non-ferrous metals, 20 10/0,6

Since 1990s, there are two main types of countries that have played an important role in the growth of world copper consumption: one is the developed countries in North America and Europe, such as the United States, Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Britain; The other is developing countries in Asia and South America, such as China, India, South Korea, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia, Brazil and Chile. At present, the consumption ratio of the two countries is roughly half. Judging from the future development trend, copper consumption in the first category countries has basically stabilized, with a low growth rate; The second category of countries has great potential for economic development, and its copper consumption has maintained a rapid growth rate, especially in China. In recent two years, copper consumption has increased rapidly, reaching 7144,000 tons in 2009, with an increase of 39.3%.

It is worth noting that China is ostensibly the core area of global copper consumption. In 2009, the consumption reached 7144,000 tons, accounting for 39. 1% of the world total. Although this is related to China's economic development, the transfer of manufacturing industries from developed countries to China and China's copper import and export policies are also important factors leading to the increase of copper consumption in China. In fact, many copper consumer products are made in China, and their consumption is charged to China's account. However, many copper consumer products in China are exported for world consumption, so there is a certain problem of "virtual" or "bubble" in the growth of copper consumption in China.

(B) China copper consumption.

As one of the important raw materials for national economic development, copper is widely used in electronics, electric power, machinery, military industry, construction and other industries. Due to the long-term shortage of copper supply in China, copper consumption runs under the planned economy system, which leads to suppressed consumption (for example, in the material and equipment department of 1988, 205 kinds of products are prohibited from using copper, etc. ), its consumption is lower than the reasonable demand of the normal and efficient operation of the national economy. Until the mid-1990s, with the acceleration of national economic development and the liberalization of copper consumption policy, copper consumption in China began to grow rapidly. The consumption of refined copper in China exceeded the first one 1995 for 46 years (1949 ~ 1995), exceeded the second one 195 and the third one 100 for 5 years (1996). By 2009, the consumption of refined copper in China has reached 714400 tons, an increase of 39.3% over the previous year, making it the largest copper consumer in the world for eight consecutive years. The accelerated transfer of manufacturing industries from developed countries to China, the transformation of domestic power grid and the implementation of new power projects have further promoted the growth of refined copper consumption in China and become one of the important factors affecting the global copper price trend.

It should be noted that the industrial chain of copper industry in China is very fragile: the upstream resource mining industry cannot meet the needs of smelting development in the middle reaches, the smelting products cannot meet the consumption demand of refined copper in the lower reaches, and all links need to rely on imports to make up for the gap between supply and demand; In other words, the vigorous development of copper industry and the rapid growth of refined copper consumption in China are based on the large-scale utilization of foreign resources (Figure 2).

Figure 2 Production and consumption of copper in China from 20065438+0 to 2009.

Four. Domestic and international trade situation

(A) the status quo of international copper trade

In the resource-based field, the world copper trade volume is relatively large in refined products. According to statistics, before 2007, the world trade volume of refined copper showed a slow growth trend; Affected by the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States in 2007 and the financial crisis in 2008, the consumption of copper in developed countries led by the United States decreased, which affected the import of refined copper in the world and showed a year-on-year downward trend. In 2009, China's economy came out of the shadow of the economic crisis for the first time, which led to the growth of copper consumption. Copper imports doubled, with an increase of 1 18.4%, which led to the world copper consumption. In 2009, the world refined copper imports rebounded to 7.978 million tons, an increase of 12 1 1000 tons over the previous year.

As an exporter, Chile is still the largest exporter in the world. In 2009, 319.10,000 tons of refined copper were exported, an increase of 654,388+087,000 tons over the previous year, accounting for 37% of the total global exports. Zambia and Japan also exported more than 600,000 yuan (Table 6).

Table 6 World refined copper exports from 2004 to 2009

Source: World Metal Statistics, 2005,12; 2008,6; 2009,2; 20 10,5

From the perspective of importing countries, China's import volume exceeded 3 million tons in 2009, reaching 3185,000 tons, making it the largest importer in the world, with a year-on-year increase of 1 18.4%, accounting for 39.9% of the world's total imports. In addition, countries with relatively large imports include Germany, the United States and Italy (Table 7).

Table 7 World refined copper imports from 2004 to 2009

Source: World Metal Statistics, 2005,12; 2008,6; 2009,2; 20 10,5

(B) the domestic copper trade situation

Although the macro-economy was hit hard by the financial crisis in 2008, the growth of copper consumption in China is still strong; On the other hand, due to the restriction of domestic resource endowment, the actual production capacity of copper concentrate in China does not match the domestic copper consumption, especially in the context of the expansion of domestic major copper smelting enterprises, the demand for copper concentrate and other raw materials is increasing, resulting in the contradiction between supply and demand of basic raw materials such as copper concentrate, and the raw material gap must be adjusted through the international market. In 2009, China imported 6132,000 tons of copper ore and its concentrate, an increase of 18. 1% over the previous year. Imported 228,000 tons of crude copper, an increase of151%over the previous year; 3.998 million tons of copper scrap and 4.256 million tons of copper and copper materials were imported (Figure 3). The export of copper and copper products was 582,000 tons, a decrease of 5.2% over the previous year.

Figure 3 Import of copper resources products in China from 20065438+0 to 2009.

V. Analysis of copper price trend

(A) changes in international copper prices

Since 2003, influenced by the recovery of the world macro-economy and the expansion of demand, the international copper price has continued to rise, with a spectacular trend. In the fourth quarter of 2007, although the copper price of London Metal Exchange (LME) dropped from 1 1 to 12, which offset the high price of copper in the second and third quarters of 2007, the overall copper price continued to rise in 2007. Although the subprime mortgage crisis continued in 2008 and eventually evolved into a worldwide financial crisis, under the influence of financial speculators and other factors, the international copper price not only continued to rise in the first half of 2008, but also set a new historical record; After that, it fluctuated slightly, and finally the copper price fell sharply in the second half of the year, and hit the lowest level in the year in 65438+February. Since 2009, the world economy has gradually improved, prompting copper prices to gradually pick up, forming a "V"-shaped reversal trend (Figure 4).

Figure 4 Changes of LME copper price since 2007

(b) Changes in domestic copper prices

China copper prices have basically achieved the price linkage mechanism with the international market, and domestic copper prices generally fluctuate with the changes of international copper prices. In the first half of 2007, copper prices mainly rose, and in the third quarter, they mainly fluctuated. In the fourth quarter, it fell due to the subprime mortgage crisis. In the first quarter of 2008, affected by the international market, the rebound surged, and it slowly fell back in the second and third quarters. In the fourth quarter, the impact of the world financial crisis accelerated the previous downward trend, leading to a sharp drop in copper prices, showing a typical "bear market" characteristics. In 2009, China's economy gradually emerged from the gloom of the world financial crisis. Since the second quarter, the trend of copper prices has shown an upward trend (Figure 5).

Figure 5 Changes of copper price in Shanghai Metal Exchange since 2007

Conclusion of intransitive verbs

(a) World copper supply and demand trends

Whether driven by the recovery of the world economy in 2003 or influenced by the financial crisis in 2008, the production and consumption of copper products in the world did not increase significantly, but increased slightly at a slow speed. At present, although there is a certain gap between supply and demand in the production and smelting of copper in mines, if the recovery of waste copper is considered, copper raw materials can not only meet the normal smelting demand of global copper, but also some copper concentrates are surplus and need to be reserved (in recent years, the global copper concentrate inventory basically fluctuates between 654.38+10,000 ~ 200,000 tons); In addition, the production and consumption of refined copper in the world are also increasing slightly, and the supply and demand can basically reach a balance. Therefore, on the whole, the supply and demand of copper resources in the world are healthy and balanced.

(II) Supply and demand trend of copper in China By the end of 2009, the national copper reserves were 146 14000 tons (copper). Without considering the mining loss, according to the current annual production capacity of about 900,000 tons, the static supply guarantee capacity of copper resources in China is about 16 years, and the supporting capacity is relatively weak. China's copper resources are characterized by many small and medium-sized deposits and few large and super-large deposits, which makes the construction scale of copper mines in China generally small. Although the country vigorously develops copper mining, the effect is not remarkable, so the current domestic copper production does not match the actual consumption; In addition, the scale of copper smelting and consumption in China is still expanding, and the potential of increasing domestic copper production is limited, which further reduces the self-sufficiency rate of copper resources in China, and copper mining has become a restrictive factor for the healthy development of copper industry in China.

(Tang Yu)