Things are divided into the following stages.
1. Foreign capital jointly raised the price of nickel and jointly acquired 90% of nickel ore.
2. The normal insurance operation of Qingshan short order is regarded as the attack point, and the goods on the market are monopolized.
3. As the delivery date of Qingshan empty bill approaches, the goods in Qingshan are once again sanctioned in Russia. We can only choose to buy foreign high-priced goods by ourselves, but we can't pay this $65.438+$0.26 billion.
At this time, the motherland made a move and found China Construction Bank and Minmetals Group to help adjust the spot and tide over the difficulties of Qingshan Group.
Because of the help of the motherland, the pressure has turned back to these foreign businessmen who maliciously forced orders. If foreign investors buy these goods, our national team will earn 8 billion dollars, otherwise foreign investors will pay more than 65.438 billion dollars in liquidated damages.
Understanding of Castle Peak Empty Bill
For it, as long as the futures price is higher than its expected price and it is judged that the future direction is likely to fall, it can be sold to bulls (empty orders) at the current price. As long as you produce enough physical nickel on the delivery date of the empty bill, you can deliver it to the other party. If the purpose is not only to preserve the value of your products, but also to judge that the future decline is almost certain, then you may want to get more benefits from the decline and sell more nickel than your own production capacity at a high price with your own nickel futures. Anyway, if it doesn't work, buy spot delivery from the market. As long as the direction is correct, extra profits are inevitable.
It doesn't matter to Qingshan that the empty list is in the wrong direction this time. As long as it does not exceed its own production capacity, for example, the price of empty orders is $20,000 per ton and empty orders 1 1,000 tons, then its sales income is $200 million, which has nothing to do with the real-time price of nickel at the time of delivery. However, if it is 20,000 tons empty and you can only produce 6,543.8+0,000 tons, then you need to go to the market to find 6,543.8+0,000 tons of grain for supplementary delivery before the delivery date, and some of it may be very expensive. If you can't find it or the price is too high, you will lose money directly.
Will Qingshan Industry go out of business because of the skyrocketing nickel?
After obtaining the low-priced nickel production process in 20021,Qingshan emptied the bills first, and then announced the news, in an attempt to make money by taking advantage of the nickel price drop caused by this news. In view of this, the number of empty orders should exceed the number required for hedging purposes. Basically, it is the biggest short position in the nickel futures market, and it is the biggest risk to find some parts from outside when delivering goods.
This time, Glencore can take advantage of the godsend opportunity of the London Stock Exchange to ban Russian nickel trading and quickly raise the price of nickel. The purpose is to bet that Qingshan can't send enough physical objects, compensate and complete the blockade. However, it is absolutely unacceptable for Glencore to find physical nickel delivery in Qingshan. After all, the price of $6,543,800 per ton far exceeds its production cost, and whoever gets it is a bomb.
The 200,000-ton position held by Qingshan Group cannot be all around the delivery month, but should include other months. Judging from the current situation, the rumored 200,000 tons has caused a floating loss of about $654.38+0.2 billion, which should be sure to be true. The short position of Qingshan Group is not too much for the world's largest nickel producer. But the main reason for my explosion this time is because of Russia's problems. This is not to say that the London Stock Exchange temporarily changed the rules to prevent the delivery of high matte nickel.
High nickel matte is not in conformity with the delivery. Since the initial delivery date is March 9, this gives foreign investors a chance to be forced to buy positions. At present, the London Stock Exchange has postponed the delivery on March 9. This may win precious days for Qingshan Group. However, Qingshan Group still can't raise all the goods in a short time. This time, Qingshan Group is expected to liquidate a small part of its disk positions and cause certain losses, estimated at around $654.38 billion. It will put some pressure on Qingshan's finance, but it will not have a significant impact on the operation of the entire Qingshan Group.