Some private placements said that today, in addition to the 90-minute passivation of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index, the 90-minute passivation of the CSI 500 Index and the 60-minute passivation of the Shanghai Composite Index. After the speed drops, the risks begin to outweigh the benefits, and there is nothing wrong with proper defense.
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On Thursday, the market surged back, with the volume enlarged by 13%, and many listed companies in the radio and television industry had daily limit; Shunhao, Fudan Hua Fu and other hot stocks opened at the daily limit and turned green. The closing index was red across the board, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.35% and the Growth Enterprise Market Index up 0.94%.
Some private investors believe that only Shenzhen Component Index had a 90-minute structure yesterday. Today, in addition to the 90-minute passivation of Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index, the 90-minute passivation of CSI 500 Index and the 60-minute passivation of Shanghai Composite Index.
Recently, there have been many spires and sharp bottoms in the time-sharing index, indicating that there are obvious differences between the long and short sides, but the outcome has not yet been decided. At this stage, we won't guess who wins or loses. However, judging from the operation of the index, it is not the main increase that accelerated the heyday before; After the speed drops, the risks begin to outweigh the benefits, and there is nothing wrong with proper defense.
Recently, bull stocks in the market, such as Fudan Hua Fu, Luting Investment, Jinlong Pharmaceutical and Shunhao Shares, were closed at the opening today, which led to the outbreak of several strong daily limit stocks. The relationship between index and individual stocks: the index is only the background, and individual stocks make different actions in the shock of the index, and the trend of individual stocks is determined by themselves; Unless you want to do stock index futures, it is the right way to use the shock of the index to find plate opportunities; However, most stocks fluctuate with the market, and most investors' stock selection ability, trading ability and risk control ability are not strong, so it is still impossible to generalize, and differentiation always exists.
The Shenzhen Component Index has increased by 39% since 65438 on1October 4th. At the same time, the financing balance of the two cities only increased from 750 billion yuan to 890 billion yuan yesterday, with an increase rate of 18%, which is quite different. Compared with the wave of 5 178, the index rose by 150%, but the financing balance was enlarged by 6 times.
The private equity person further stated that this shows that it is not financing funds that drive this round of market, but a fund whose growth rate is much faster than financing growth rate. The market does not fall, and the risk is not obvious; On the contrary, if it falls, the risk will double, which is the most alarming thing in the near future. Strategically increase the market risk coefficient and reduce the high selling positions.
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Huatai Securities Media Team recently released an in-depth research report on "Dawn Coming, Paying Attention to Marginal Changes in Radio and Television Industry". The report points out that:
The industry is undergoing positive changes and the dawn is reappearing. After the separation of TV from network, production and broadcasting, the video industry chain, which was originally concentrated in radio and television enterprises, was marketized. Due to the slow construction of regional and network, the competitiveness of radio and television has gradually weakened. However, we believe that as an important position, the broadcasting industry will continue to pay more attention.
The "National One Network" joint-stock company is expected to be established on 20 19. With the opportunity of 5G, radio and television is expected to rebuild its competitiveness through scale and smart radio and television construction, transform from a channel provider to a network operation service enterprise, and cultivate new growth momentum. Among them, we believe that companies with high two-way network coverage and excellent local competition pattern have more room for development. The industry is experiencing positive marginal changes.
At the same time, in 20 19, the broadcasting industry is expected to obtain a 5G license. Under the background of 5G, it is expected to cultivate new growth drivers and release performance flexibility by participating in the construction of government private networks, smart cities and media convergence.
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For investment opportunities in the broadcasting industry, Huatai Securities pointed out:
In terms of valuation, we believe that the performance of radio and television companies is unstable and fluctuating, which is not suitable for PE valuation; Radio and TV is an industry with heavy investment in assets, and it is more suitable to use PB valuation to serve users through network construction. Among them, Jiangsu Cable, Hubei Radio and TV, gehuayouxian and Oriental Pearl have relatively low PB valuations.
At the same time, because the main business of radio and television is based on its user scale, the user scale is an important factor to measure its market value. We designed the market value per household/annual ARPU value index to reflect the time required for the contribution of annual ARPU value per household to be reflected in the market value of each household. From this point of view, the market value of ARPU per household/year of radio and television network is much lower than that of peers.
With the promotion of national networking and the transformation to smart broadcasting under the background of 5G, the broadcasting industry has ushered in new development opportunities. We suggest looking for investment opportunities in the industry from the following two logics: 1. When expanding the smart broadcasting business, the higher the two-way network coverage, the better the business support ability, the better the competition pattern and the stronger the business development ability. It is suggested to pay attention to Guiguang Network, Guangxi Radio and Television, Tianwei Video, Huashu Media and Gehua Youxian. 2. Valuation perspective: From the perspective of PB, Hubei Radio and Television, Jiangsu Cable, gehuayouxian and Oriental Pearl have lower valuations; From the perspective of user scale and ARPU value, pay attention to radio and television networks.
(Article source: National Business Daily)