In March, methanol (2644, 7.00, 0.27%) futures bottomed out. At the beginning of the month, the main contract of 1405 briefly rebounded to around 2780, and then fell unilaterally under pressure again, falling below the main barriers of 2700 and 2600 one after another, and hitting a new low since the listing of 2 1 contract. Recently, futures prices began to rebound continuously.

Fundamentals: Upstream coal prices continue to fall, and methanol costs are negative. At the same time, the downstream traditional demand season is not prosperous, and low construction restricts the procurement of raw materials. However, due to the small production capacity, olefin production projects have limited impact on the demand side in the short term, and the overall fundamentals of methanol are weak.

Technically, ME 1405 stabilized and rebounded around 2530, and successfully stood at the integer mark of 2600. It is expected to continue the oversold rebound in the short term, but the material space is limited, and the top is concerned about the pressure of 2700. In operation, the low position holds multiple orders. If you can break through the pressure of 2700, you can follow up and continue to sell more orders. Otherwise, we will rely on the pressure of shorting to pay attention to the changes in the domestic macro-environment and the trend of the stock market.