First, housing prices are difficult to rise, and the probability is high. Second, the rental yield of the house is low, which is not as good as the bank deposit interest rate. The following are analyzed separately.
Why is it difficult for house prices to rise? I have also analyzed and discussed the house price many times before. Personally, I think it is difficult for house prices to rise in the next five years, and the upward momentum is insufficient. The probability of house price sideways is very high, and it may also fall slightly.
The core of policy regulation is that "house prices cannot rise". At present, China has implemented strict regulation on real estate. In the past, the core of regulation was to "curb the excessive rise in housing prices". What does this sentence mean? That is, house prices can go up, but you can't go up too fast. In other words, house prices can go up slowly.
The core of the current real estate control policy is that "house prices can't go up", which means that house prices can't go up any more. From the perspective of government regulation, more and more policies are also pointing to this point, and from the results of regulation, most house prices have not risen sharply this year.
The current regulatory policy will not be shaken for five years, and the "real estate loosening" that has been circulating on the Internet for several years has never really been loosened.
In addition to the policy level, there are actually other levels, such as the high price, which is beyond the general affordability of the market. A house needs "six wallets" to pay the down payment. Today's high housing prices have made many people unable to afford them, far higher than the affordability of ordinary people, and real estate speculators are severely restricted by real estate regulation, so people who want to buy a house in the market can't afford it because of the high housing prices.
So I think house prices will be sideways, stable in a small range, and may fall, but not too much.
Why is the rental yield of houses low? If the house price is sideways and the rental yield is high, buying a house is actually a good choice, because you can get a better average interest rate than the market by renting out the house every year. Although the house price does not rise and the rental rate of return is high, the problem now is: the rental rate of return is low.
Many people may think that the rent is so high, why is the rental yield low? The rental yield is equal to the rent divided by the total house price, because the total house price itself is very high, so the rental yield is relatively low.
At present, even in Beijing, the rental rate of return is only about 2% or 3%, and the rental rate of return in other cities is actually very low, which has caused a phenomenon: the rental rate of return is not even as high as the bank deposit interest rate.
Moreover, deposits are funds that can be realized in time. At present, it is actually very difficult to sell a house at a high price, unless the price is greatly reduced, which also shows that the liquidity of deposits is greater than that of houses.
Now house prices are difficult to rise, and the rental yield is low. In fact, buying a house has become blood loss. House prices can't rise, the total value of the house is difficult to improve, and the rental yield is low, which is not as good as bank deposits. So it is not recommended to buy a house, but to hold a deposit.
If you don't like the low interest rate of bank deposits, you can actually carry out some financial management, improve the rate of return on financial management within your own tolerance, and don't devalue too much like bank deposits.
Personally, I think it is not suitable to turn deposits into real estate in 2020, and it is not too late to consider buying a house around 2025.
The economy has cycles, and so do many industries. With the improvement of living standards and the change of consumption concepts, some industries will die out, and some emerging industries will rise and live endlessly.
The past twenty years can be said to be the golden age of real estate. Countless developers are worth hundreds of millions, contributing more than 30 trillion yuan in land revenue, and the related taxes and fees are even more difficult to count, which has played a decisive role in economic growth. In this process, companies and individuals who invest in real estate generally benefit a lot, and families who buy houses late are under increasing pressure. The bank deposit that was enough turned into a down payment, and finally it was not enough.
The process of rising house prices is also the process of rapidly rising household debts, the increasingly obvious polarization of wealth and the increasingly difficult survival of manufacturing enterprises. When half of the monthly salary of low-and middle-income people is not enough to pay the mortgage and rent, when it is difficult to make a down payment by emptying six wallets, the price increase has come to an end.
Caizhi successfully believes that the next decade will be a decade of real estate value return, and the economic development will be more stable after the house price is halved, even if it experiences some pains. If housing prices are maintained, it will be difficult to form a consumer society, consumption will gradually shrink, the problem of overcapacity in enterprises will become more prominent, and salary cuts and layoffs will become more and more serious, which is unbearable for economic development.
The rental-to-sale ratio of domestic real estate is generally below 2%, that is to say, a house with a price of 6,543.8+0,000 yuan only costs 20,000 yuan a year, and you can easily get the interest of 40,000 yuan with a price of 6,543.8+0,000 yuan in the bank. From this perspective, real estate has no investment value, and with the expected changes, it is inevitable that house prices will fall sharply.
A gentleman does not stand under a dangerous wall. Now wait and see with money. If you have nothing to do, just look at the number of local auction houses, wait a few years, hold the interest, and wait until the price is reduced before buying. 1 10,000 houses dropped to 700,000, easily saving 300,000. How many years does it take for an ordinary family to save 300 thousand?
Choose carefully! Avoid taking over!
In 2020, turn "deposit" into "real estate". Two core intentions can be distilled from your question:
Let's analyze:
From the end of 20 15, the rising cycle of house prices began nationwide. Although it has decreased so far, it has increased significantly compared with before. House prices in key cities have even doubled. In this process, the state has continuously introduced various regulatory policies to strictly control and prevent overheated speculation in the real estate industry. At present, compulsory measures such as "restricting purchases" and "restricting sales" are basically adopted to stabilize housing prices and adhere to the bottom line of "staying in the house and not speculating". The momentum of rising house prices has been curbed and adjustments have begun to appear to varying degrees.
In fact, everyone knows the reasons for this wave of housing price increases. When the wind blows, stones can fly to the sky. The real estate industry is a huge capital pool. Through this round of speculation, huge domestic funds are locked in the real estate sector. In fact, the purpose of doing this is to "enrich the water and leave no outsiders". Previously, the international economic situation was turbulent. During the Obama era, the United States called on global dollar assets to return to the United States by promoting interest rate hikes, squeezing other countries' capital flesh and blood. Of course, there is also a desire for a large amount of capital to leave the country in China, so we lock in huge capital through the two natural capital reservoirs, the stock market and the housing market, and effectively eliminate the excessive currency bubble in China during the operation. A way to get a variety of things.
This is the macro premise of the housing market going up.
A house is actually a commodity, and its price is determined by the value of the house itself, such as the location of the house and the level of property. At the same time, affected by the relationship between supply and demand, that is, more people buy houses, and house prices naturally rise. The reality is that the purpose of buying a house in recent years is obviously not to meet the supply and demand of living, but to speculate. This kind of hype is actually no different from gambling. At present, domestic real estate is in a situation of oversupply, and there is a high vacancy rate everywhere.
On the demand side, speculative demand has been locked in by high housing prices; Just affected by the decline in economic income and the increase in the upward cost of housing prices, the ability to buy a house is insufficient. Demand has been severely squeezed.
In the case of long-term oversupply, it is unlikely that there will be a low-price inflection point in house prices next year.
At the same time, with the global economic downturn, the domestic economy is declining, inflationary pressure is high, debt is generally high, income is reduced, and consumption power is limited. In this case, a large number of bubbles stored in the real estate industry are at risk of passive bursting. In this case, except for a few high-quality properties, they can play a certain role in maintaining value. Generally speaking, the whole real estate industry will also be hit by the macroeconomic downturn. It is difficult to realize your desire to preserve and increase value.
In this economic environment, cash is king and hard currency is the first choice.
But crisis, crisis! There will be opportunities in danger! Everything is unbreakable, and we also need to actively look for opportunities to turn over in this troubled times. But in terms of time, it should not be next year. . .
If it were me, I would definitely not invest in real estate at this time. For the coming year of 2020, the real estate market will go through many tests. If you don't just need it at this time and want to invest in real estate, then you are really courageous.
If I were you, I would already have a house. If buying a house again is an investment house, then I will never buy a house again in 2020. Because as a financial practitioner, my current annualized rate of return on savings can reach about 15%, which is definitely higher than the income from investing in real estate.
So how can I save money and achieve an annualized rate of return of 15%? Tell me about my method. At present, the investment in futures is mainly the intraday quantitative trading of commodity futures. At the beginning of the year, the test was started at 654.38+10,000 yuan, and the capital was gradually increased from May. At present, the total capital is 500,000 yuan, so the net profit so far is about 90,000 yuan, and the yield is 654.38+08%. In fact, if you invest 500,000 yuan at the beginning of the year, the yield will be higher.
I make my own trade and invest my money in it. I believe this risk is more controllable than investing in real estate. I'm also learning and trading now. I believe that after several years of accumulation, I can manage my money well and achieve an annualized rate of return of about 15% per year.
As for real estate, I have recently seen many real estate tycoons selling real estate; Listed companies sell real estate; Real estate speculators sell real estate; Ordinary families with multiple suites are also selling properties.
Obviously, now everyone has a * * * understanding that house prices will not fall in the future, and it is difficult to rise, and may even fall sharply. In this case, it is better to sell the property now and then take money to manage money. Now many wealth management products can achieve an annualized rate of return of around 10%, which is much higher than real estate.
Now that so many people are selling real estate, why should I jump into the fire pit? Therefore, it is recommended that people who invest in buying a house see the status quo clearly and follow the trend.
Should we turn "deposit" into "real estate" in 2020?
On this issue, the author's point of view is that if it is just needed, it can be shot in the second half of next year. If it is an investment, it depends on the specific situation.
We should know that the property market has entered a stable and orderly track under the policy guidance of "housing and not speculating", which is certain and unlikely to change again. Why not say healthy, orderly and stable, just say stable and orderly, because the property market itself is not healthy, and house prices also have a certain amount of moisture, which needs to be gradually drained in the future development to be truly healthy. So talking about health, order and stability now is a bit inconsistent with the facts.
However, stability and order are irreversible, especially housing prices, which can no longer rise as before, and there can be no ups and downs. It should be noted that the house price is at a high level, which may be inconsistent with the actual purchasing power at any time and has a certain gap with the actual value. Only by developing water absorption can it match the purchasing power of residents. And this, obviously, can not be achieved in a year or two. Unless there is a sharp drop in house prices, it just takes time to digest and absorb the water attached to house prices.
Judging from the current actual situation, house prices are closely related to financial risks, residents' psychology and social stability. They do not have the conditions for a sharp decline, especially for a sustained sharp decline. If there is a sustained and rapid decline, not only the development enterprises can't bear it, but even the residents who have already bought a house can't bear it, and it may also lead to serious financial risks.
This also means that it will take quite some time to match the housing price with residents' income, and it is necessary to digest the housing price slowly and step by step, so that the property market can really enter a healthy track in the process of water digestion. Only when the property market is healthy and stable, and the market order is standardized, the housing price will match the purchasing power of residents, and the housing price will not become a psychological obstacle for residents. Therefore, whether to buy a house requires residents to make a serious and rational choice.
Generally speaking, now is not a bad time to buy a house, nor is it a good time to buy a house. Buying a house is difficult to preserve and increase the value of wealth as in the past, but it will not lead to the depreciation of wealth. Especially for those who just need it, buying a house now may cost a little more than the first half of next year, but the value brought by living can absorb the loss of falling house prices. If you can be patient, you may be able to save some money by buying a house in the second quarter of next year. However, in the long run, buying a house is not a loss. In the case of excessive currency, house prices will still rise slightly, but the increase will definitely be lower than the income growth of residents.
Just need to buy a house, buy it if necessary, don't hesitate too much.
The main purpose of just buying a house is to live by yourself, just live comfortably, and don't care too much about the rise and fall of house prices.
Waiting for house prices to rise is as speculative as waiting for house prices to fall. According to this psychology, you will never find the right time to buy a house. As for the owner-occupied property, I don't think there is any decline in value. When I bought it, it was because I was satisfied with its residential value. The decline in urban housing prices is only a quantitative change, and the residential value of my house has not changed at all.
The owner-occupied property will accompany the buyer for 30 years or more, so you can take a long-term view.
10 years, house prices may change repeatedly and fickle. However, after 20 or 30 years, no one can accurately estimate the development of housing prices.
Deposits will depreciate, and real estate may also depreciate. However, real estate may also appreciate, and the interest on deposits is not enough for inflation, and eventually it just depreciates.
As a long-term asset, it is also a wise choice to convert deposits into real estate.
Of course it is appropriate, as long as you can realize it, but you won't realize it later. Now most families can't afford hundreds of thousands, and you can still afford it if you can't get 50 thousand. There are very few 200 thousand in the world, and they are all heavily in debt!
In 2020, I think it is necessary to use savings to buy valuable assets, which can be stocks, funds and of course real estate, but it needs to be valuable real estate. 2020 is a special year. The global epidemic and Sino-US relations have a great impact on this year's economy. In order to prevent economic downturn and high unemployment rate, countries have started to release water and put a lot of money into the market. The more money there is in the market, the less valuable it is. At present, the interest rate of bank deposits is very low, so the interest rate of money placed in banks is very low, which can't outrun the rate of currency depreciation. So now it is necessary to take out the deposit to buy assets with financial attributes to preserve or increase their value.
General investment needs diversification to reduce the risk of single asset investment. What is the best asset now in 2020? Recently, the stock market is very hot. If the bull market really comes, you'd better invest your savings in stocks or funds. However, the stock market is risky and investment needs to be cautious. Even in a bull market, not everyone can make money in it. Therefore, it is suggested that some deposits can be used to buy funds with less risk.
Apart from the stock market, it is estimated that ordinary people like real estate best. From last year to this year, the internet has been advocating that house prices will not rise or even fall, especially in third-and fourth-tier cities. However, according to the statistics released this year, housing prices in many cities are still rising, some of which are not small, and many third-and fourth-tier cities are also rising. It is observed that the biggest increase in a city is in good locations, especially in good school districts.
So I think we can turn our savings into real estate in 2020, but we must choose a good city and a good location. If you want to turn funds into real estate, it is better to suggest first-line real estate. The differentiation of housing prices is an inevitable trend. Some remote areas even sold cabbage prices. For example, the house in Hegang is only tens of thousands of dollars. Although it's cheap, is it really worth investing? I won't invest in such a house anyway.
Can the house price still be available? In the next decade, house prices will tend to be stable, not rising or falling.
The average transaction price of newly developed residential buildings in cities nationwide 1998 was 2,000 yuan per square meter, and it rose to 8,800 yuan in 20 18, roughly quadrupling. This is the average price per square meter of urban housing development in eastern, central and western China, with 10 doubling and quadrupling in 20 years.
If the local area is larger than the local area, it will be more than three times in both the east and the west. For example, in 2000, the average house price in the main urban area of Chengdu was more than 1000 and 20 17 1000, which more than tripled.
In coastal areas, such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Nanjing and Hangzhou, the prices of first-tier cities in hot spots have basically increased by three or eight times, and some particularly hot places have even increased by more than ten times.
To sum up, the place where house prices should rise has risen, and the place where they should not have risen cannot. First-tier cities between cities can still attract people, and the relationship between supply and demand of houses is directly related to the demographic dividend.
However, the general policy is not to speculate in real estate, and this general direction will not change, which directly leads to the impossibility of a strong trend increase in house prices, thus turning into a shock. Take the houses in Shanghai as an example. It is true that some areas have fallen, and some areas have risen instead of falling.
A friend around me bought a house in Songjiang and invested. He just sold it this year and lost 400,000 yuan.
Another friend bought a house in Pudong a few years ago. At that time, it was 5. 1 ten thousand, and now 60 thousand has increased by 1 ten thousand.
Also in Shanghai, there is a differentiation in housing prices between districts. Of course, the first friend may be suspected of chasing high, but overall, there should be no sharp decline, mainly shock.
finally
If you exchange cash for real estate, you can only preserve the value, and it is unlikely that there will be a trend of rising house prices in previous years. Any investment behavior needs policy support, which is the major premise, otherwise it can only be suppressed. I don't know why I have to save money to buy a house. If it is for investment, there should be other assets to choose from.
Real estate is a necessity for people, and food, clothing, housing and transportation are indispensable. Whether to change "deposit" into "real estate" in 2020 should vary from person to person, and there is no unified answer. It depends on the individual's family situation and the trend of real estate prices in the city. If you need it, you can buy it. If it is not just needed and the funds are not loose, you can wait for a while and observe the trend of urban real estate prices before making a decision.