The demand of commodity market usually consists of three parts: domestic consumption, export volume and final commodity balance. The factors that affect the change of domestic consumption are: the change of consumer purchasing power, the change of population growth and consumption structure, government income and employment policy, etc. The ending balance of commodities is one of the most important data to analyze the trend of futures commodity prices.
The supply of commodity market mainly consists of three parts: pre-inventory, current production and current import. Pre-inventory can be divided into producer inventory, operator inventory and government inventory. The current product output itself is a variable. This is especially true for agricultural products that are greatly affected by natural factors, especially some commodities that cannot be stored. For agricultural products futures, we must pay attention to the analysis and study of the changes in sowing area, climate, crop production conditions, production costs and government agricultural policies in order to better grasp the current production. The actual import volume of commodities often changes for political or economic reasons. Therefore, we should know and master the changes of international situation, price level, import policy and import volume as soon as possible.
2. Economic fluctuation cycle factors The price fluctuation of the futures market is not only related to the domestic economic cycle, but also related to the economic prosperity of all countries in the world. Generally, economic prosperity and depression can be judged by economic growth rate, gross national product and other indicators, while inflation can be judged by money supply and various price indexes.
3. Financial and monetary factors The impact of financial and monetary factors on futures prices is mainly manifested in interest rates and exchange rates. Fluctuations in interest rates or exchange rates of major international currencies such as the US dollar, the Japanese yen and the euro have extremely obvious constraints on the futures market prices.
4. Political factors The futures market is extremely sensitive to changes in the policy climate, and fluctuations in the political situation often have different degrees of impact on futures prices. Political factors have strong constraints on the futures market.
5. Policy factors, policies and measures also have great influence on futures prices. 6. Corresponding to the price trend of the same variety in the international futures market.
7. Speculative funds and speculative psychological factors.
8. Natural factors Natural conditions are mainly climatic conditions, geographical changes and natural disasters. For example, if there is a flood in the south, the price of sugar will rise.
These factors are useful for manufacturing any variety.