Title: International Energy Cooperation International Energy Organization Legal System International Economic Law Legal Principles Legal Organization
Learn to be a Big Country: International Energy Cooperation from the Perspective of China
◎ Wang Jian
China has a large population and few oil resources, so it is impossible to complete the transformation of energy structure from coal-based to oil-based by relying on world resources. meanwhile
China is the most developed manufacturing country in the world. The products it produces are consumed by all countries, so the demand for energy is greater than that of other countries.
A lot. This global division of labor structure makes it more urgent for China to develop new energy sources. Big countries can't be in place in one step. we
In the future, energy issues should be incorporated into the overall national development strategy and economic, political, diplomatic and military arrangements should be made.
From now on, pave the way for the long term.
China cannot rely on the world resources to realize the energy structure with oil as the main source.
We say that industrialization has three elements, energy, materials and information. Energy is the basic driving force of industrialization, because
The reason why human society can create so many products is not mainly by manpower, but by scientific and technological means.
Not affected by natural forces.
In the process of industrialization, the basic energy that human beings rely on is fossil energy. Generally speaking, developed countries enter heavy industry.
After the chemical stage, the energy consumption structure changed from coal to oil and natural gas. Post-industrial
During this period, more than 60% of developed countries relied on non-coal energy. But for China, because of the large population and too little oil, we
The biggest problem is that there is no way to embark on the road of industrialization based on oil. Until today, 70% of the energy supply has been returned.
It depends on coal. In terms of total amount, China should reach the consumption level of developed countries, even if it is the most energy-efficient and efficient.
World oil resources cannot support the standards of the most efficient countries. When Japan finished its industrialization, it consumed stones per capita.
L7 barrels of oil, we want to reach this standard, with the current population scale, the total annual oil consumption will be 3.6 billion tons; but
● Wang Jian, Secretary-General and researcher of China Macroeconomics Society.
At present, the annual international oil trade volume is only over 2 billion tons, and the total world oil output in 2009 is only over 3.5 billion tons.
The disadvantage of coal-based energy structure is that it has brought great pollution to the environment. China's annual oil imports.
It is still increasing, and coal is also a net import. Under the current consumption scale, we can still buy oil and coal, but the environment
I can't take it anymore. So in the process of industrialization. China's first bottleneck is not energy shortage, but the environment.
Stress.
In the long run, we will inevitably face the problem of insufficient fossil energy, which is not only a matter for China ~ countries.
Love is also a matter for all mankind. How long can the global oil-based industrial system last? Some people say that 30 years,
Some people say 50 years, no matter 30 years or 50 years, oil resources are used less. However, with the economic development of all countries in the world
Development, especially the acceleration of industrialization in Asia, the most populous country, has led to an increasing global demand for energy. Petroleum storage
Equipment is decreasing and consumption is increasing, which will inevitably bring competition.
In recent years, China's oil consumption has risen rapidly, and the crude oil consumption in 20l0 may reach 500 million tons, while our own health.
The production capacity is about 200 million tons. China's dependence on oil imports was 50% two years ago, and now it seems that it will soon rise to 60%.
At present, more than two-thirds of the world's tradable oil is occupied by industrialized countries. If China's imports are not
Exceeding the increase in international oil trade has not affected the trade share already occupied by developed countries, and they may still accept it;
However, once the global oil production peaks and the output decreases, while China's import demand is still increasing, it is related to development.
I'm afraid a conflict between countries is coming.
At present, enterprises in China are investing in energy resources all over the world, but they have already encountered such contradictions and conflicts. compare
For example, we go to Africa to participate in energy development. Africa is traditionally a colony of Europeans, and old colonial countries such as Germany,
France, Britain, etc. Established its own sphere of influence there, and basically turned the African continent into a melon in the19th century.
It's over. Now that China is going there to compete for resources, it is tantamount to taking a share from others, which will naturally produce an economy
Political and diplomatic disputes. Like the Darfur issue in Sudan, because it involves Sino-Soviet oil cooperation, it was
The international community has made it particularly complicated. There is actually a French background here, because neighboring countries in southwestern Sudan such as Chad,
Central Africa and Congo are both traditional French-speaking areas. China is a latecomer to industrialization. At that time, we broke into old brands to obtain resources.
The sphere of influence of colonial countries, they will inevitably put obstacles in our way.
Overseas energy cooperation also has a very important transportation channel safety issue, because whether it is crude oil or we are
The local refined oil must be transported to China for consumption. What should I do if there is an international dispute and the sea passage is blocked?
Even if we don't consider the above constraints, assuming that all the oil that can be obtained internationally in the future is obtained, it is far away.
It is not enough for us, because China will face a huge energy gap in the future. At this stage, we should be able to
Look clearly: China will basically complete industrialization in 203O, when we will have a population of 654.38+0.5 billion; When Japan finished its industrialization,
Calculated by standard coal, the per capita energy consumption is 5 tons. According to this standard, when China basically completes industrialization, its energy consumption will reach.
7.5 billion tons of standard coal. How to distribute the demand of 7.5 billion tons of standard coal? At present, China's total annual energy consumption is nearly 3 billion tons.
Standard coal, the demand gap of more than 4 billion tons of standard coal in the future, where will the resources come from to fill it?
China needs to develop new energy more urgently than other countries.
The coal-based energy structure has brought us increasingly arduous environmental challenges, and there will be a lot of industrialization in the future.
Huge energy gap. Under such pressure, China must consider how to develop new energy and clean energy.
This problem is actually more urgent before us.
Energy consumption is mainly in industry, life and service industry. From China's energy balance sheet, we can see that
It can be seen that industrial energy consumption accounts for more than 70%. What makes China special is that we are the most developed manufacturing industry in the world.
This country. Among BRIC countries, Brazil and Russia mainly produce mineral resources and primary products; India is engaged in software services
Business-oriented. Compared with India, our manufacturing industry is ten times bigger.
In terms of industrial scale, China now ranks first in the world. As a world worker, our products serve the world.
World consumption. China has the problem of energy shortage because our industry is too big and needs it.
There is too much energy and the supply can't keep up.
Now, the developed countries have basically stopped developing the material industry. For example, in the United States, the proportion of manufacturing in GDP ranges from 65438 to 0990.
The proportion in China is still 28%, and now it has dropped to 0%. Developed countries have reduced the proportion of their manufacturing industries, and at the same time,
A large number of material products are imported from China, and China's trade surplus with the United States exceeds 2000L, and its trade surplus with the European Union is even greater.
A trade surplus of $2,000-as long as China provides them with products, they can buy them with money.
Since many countries rely on China's manufacturing industry to meet their own consumption, there is no need to think too much.
The material industry's demand for energy, energy conservation and development of new energy sources are naturally not as urgent as ours.
Strong. Because of this, in the development of new energy, if we hope because of the advanced technology in developed countries,
I'm afraid it's wishful thinking for them to develop new energy for us. Importance of developing new energy sources in the future.
This burden may be borne by China, the largest manufacturing country in the world.
Is this unfair to China? You can't say that either. China can learn from world politics.
Isn't it because what we produce is needed by others that the edge of the field and the economic field move toward the center? The United States is in World War II.
In the end, its output accounted for almost 30% of the world at its peak, and its export volume accounted for 50% of the world. if
If the new globalization had given China such an opportunity, China would not have today's development trend. As a big country,
It is precisely because China has occupied the peak of the world's material production that it can reach its present position and have today's influence; the same
At that time, the global division of labor forced China to do better than other countries in finding new energy sources and developing new energy technologies.
The sense of urgency at home is stronger. Therefore, developing new energy is our unavoidable task.
Energy issues should be included in the overall development strategy of the country in the future.
China is now the second largest economy in the world, and has become a real big country. In that case, we must learn to do it.
Big country.
Big countries should consider more than just energy issues. Do we have enough agricultural products? Non-ferrous metal wing
Is that enough? Not enough. At the same time, our production capacity is so great that our products need to go abroad. Does the people's market accept it or not?
Now we have so many trade frictions, and these problems are actually homogeneous with energy problems.
Big countries can't be in place in one step. We need to consider the future development prospects of China as a big country.
Start doing something now to pave the way for long-term development. ~ j How will China develop in ~J2030 and 2050?
In 2030, our per capita GDP may reach 1 10,000 US dollars, basically completing industrialization; The per capita GDP in 2050 may be
Reaching 50,000 US dollars, China has entered the ranks of developed countries. Per capita GDP is US$ 550,000, which is 75 trillion according to the population of 65.438+0.5 billion.
What is this concept? More than the current global GDP of 50 trillion. How many physical products will we consume at that time? They went from
~ 1UL，get？ What obstacles will we encounter in this process? How to solve it? The solution to all these problems,
Need to design a national overall strategy. Including the import and export of energy primary products and finished products, our capital
The market and foreign financial relations, as well as the competition and interest relations with other countries, should be considered as a whole, not just
To make good economic arrangements, we must also make good political, diplomatic and military arrangements.
For example, China should gradually cultivate the energy financial market now. Enterprises for long-term health
In production and trade, the settlement price is relatively stable, so it is hoped that there will be futures markets that can lock forward prices one by one.
Avoiding risks is the positive significance of the futures market. Of course, now developed countries have gone too far in playing futures and regard it as a hedge.
Function aside, it completely highlights the speculative function. This is because developed countries have completed industrialization, due to production.
The rest, their capital can't make money in the field of material production, so they start to play virtual and engage in derivative financial products. but
The situation in China is different, because China is still in the development stage of material production. The same thing, for different people.
Countries, as well as different stages of development of the same country, have different influences. We often say that splashing bath water is no good.
The child in the bathtub was also thrown out. The futures market is very important to China, and we should make it work.
Play a positive role and prevent negative things from appearing.
More specifically, in the international energy sector, the New York Commodity Futures Exchange and the London International Petroleum Exchange in the United Kingdom.
Through the futures prices of West Texas light crude oil and Brent crude oil in the North Sea, the crude oil price in the international market is controlled. Beauty of the future
Are China and Britain still major energy consumers? No, the main energy consumer is China. But the rules of the game are people.
We must obey the family rules, so it's unfair. Where should a product be used most?
A lot, this place should become its trading center, whether it is spot or futures. China is becoming more and more a part of the world.
The production and consumption centers of various products are the future energy consumption centers in the long run, so energy futures are these things.
You should take it to China. It can't be said that developed countries have gone too far to play derivative finance now, and we don't do it anymore. At this moment,
In fact, we can't be short-sighted.
We can see that in the mature stage of industrialization, developed countries generally trade one or two hundred futures products; but
There are only twenty or thirty kinds of transactions that we have entered the futures market. China's futures market is still too immature. What should we do?
It should promote its development, not limit it. The energy futures market, too, should develop slowly, including energy and energy.
Products related to the source, such as chemical raw materials, should also consider whether to let them enter the futures market.
To develop the futures market in China, we must first learn from others at this stage. China is a developing country, and its greatest advantage lies in.
It has a learning effect: others have taken detours, and we know where the straight road is, so we can go straight. Study hard.
Family experience, the most important thing is talent. In the future, when China really becomes a big producer and consumer of various industrial products, it will become.
International futures trading center, but few people are proficient in relevant international rules and gameplay. Can this work? but I
People in the futures industry have had contact. They think that one of the main problems in developing the futures market in China now is to understand the international period.
There is still a shortage of freight talents. The people trained by the school know all the knowledge in books, but they really understand trade.
Usually abroad, because foreign countries can make a lot of money. The cultivation of financial talents includes the construction of relevant legal systems. , we
We haven't done enough, and this is the direction we should work hard.