The attitude of public opinion is very interesting, from the initial praise and applause; Gloating after the interview; Then, after the new regulations, we will hit the wall and push everyone. The essence of our Sichuan opera's face-changing is vividly interpreted.

Of course, the broad masses of people who eat melons also have the composition of "public opinion", and they express their emotions in various comment areas and communities. Because of the limited information, it is reasonable to change their attitude easily. However, another important component-all kinds of self-media as opinion leaders, these professionals who should have professional knowledge and their own positions are also swinging rhythmically, so that people who were unconsciously eating melons "enjoyed" the whole incident without knowing it.

But then again, professionals have to cook a proper meal. The audience can write whatever they like to see and what the platform is willing to push. A stubborn man like Mr. Value is not pleasing. This survival logic has always been like this.

The last financial innovation was 50 years ago.

In the Bund speech, the key word (none) is financial innovation. In the textbook of finance, there is a section about financial innovation. There is a special part for two reasons:

1. It's not as simple as the literal meaning. It is not only a new financial tool or a new financial model, so it can be called "financial innovation".

2. There is only one paragraph because the last milestone financial innovation was as far back as 50 years ago and only once in history.

If you can guess, what is the main motivation of financial innovation? Most of the answers may be to serve entities or increase the welfare of investors.

In fact, there are three main motives for financial innovation, which have nothing to do with the above two answers! These three main motives are: transferring risks, evading supervision and promoting scientific and technological progress.

Motivation 1: transfer risk

Capital is evil and selfish. Many people will say this sentence, but it may not be accepted as a fact.

More than 50 years ago, western banks first discovered that the violent fluctuation of the capital market made their investment income very unstable, but banks needed to pay interest for customers steadily, so they invented bonds, loans and debt instruments futures and options with variable interest rates to transfer risks to investors.

Every time the banking system accumulates a certain degree of risk, it needs to transfer the risk. This is the case in the United States, and so is China. 20 17 to 20 18, entity deleveraging, financial deleveraging. Banks also transferred the risks accumulated in the previous stage and concentrated on detonating. P2P is the victim of innovation.

The second motive: evading supervision.

This may have brushed off many people's three views. This opportunistic motive of committing crimes is actually an important scene for nurturing innovation.

Innovation and supervision are two sides of the contradiction, such as the real economy and the financial industry. Innovation is like a passionate young man, and supervision is like a wise, steady and conservative old man. Neither side is suitable to be an absolute leader. Only when both sides reach a balance can they keep moving forward.

Banking is a very special industry. The physical industry buys raw materials from the upstream and sells finished products to consumers. Even if there are great risks, the impact only exists in one industry. The people are upstream of the bank, and the raw materials are people's deposits. Banks use these deposits to take risks and get more money. Once a risk occurs, it will not only affect the banking industry, even the entire financial industry, but the economy of the whole country.

To put it simply, this special industry enriches itself when making money, and enriches the whole society when losing money. Think about it. If a gambling game is put in front of you, it is yours to win, and you don't have to pay for it if you lose. How much do you bet? Of course, I can't wait for a few hundred million more!

So financial supervision was born, and its starting point was to protect the interests of the public and maintain the stability of the economic system.

What is the simplest supervision? It is a one-size-fits-all approach to reduce financial risks to zero. But as Ma Yun said, if the risk is reduced to zero, innovation will also be reduced to zero. All young people's innovations come from their adventures; Old people don't take risks and make mistakes, so they don't innovate. Many innovations are made by young people under the supervision of the elderly. If the old man's consent is required before taking risks, more than half of the innovations will be killed in the cradle.

The same is true of financial innovation. One of the great inventions of American financial industry 50 years ago (automatic transfer system) was invented to avoid excessive supervision.

The third driving force: the progress of science and technology.

In junior high school textbooks, we have learned that "technology is the primary productive force". Science and technology are not only the primary productive forces in the field of physics, but also the primary productive forces in the field of finance.

Around 1970, modern information technology with computer technology as the core first appeared in the United States, and ATM, telephone banking and bank cards were born at that time. With these, the United States led the first round of financial innovation after Britain dominated the world financial system, and then, it was logical to formulate global financial standards and easily erode global wealth through the financial system.

Because the second round of revolutionary financial innovation has not yet appeared, the United States has enjoyed the monopoly welfare of the global financial industry for 50 years.

Around 2020, 5G, the core of new generation technologies such as artificial intelligence, big data and blockchain, first appeared in China. Naturally, the privilege of creating new financial instruments and formulating a new generation of global financial standards fell to China. Since the second half of last year, the government has been encouraging financial innovation, and its attitude has become more and more urgent, because this opportunity is so rare and important.

Ma Yun criticized that "as long as Europe and the United States are advanced, we must fill the gaps and not engage in innovation". It is indeed a major mistake not to cherish this historical opportunity. But is this the official attitude now? Obviously not. That was before.

Another digital currency, strongly advocated and highly affirmed by Ma Yun, is a major financial innovation tool and an important achievement of the government after several years' efforts. It was piloted last year. These positive messages are selectively ignored by opinion leaders and uniformly ignored, as agreed in advance.

Under the background of supporting financial innovation, why should we strengthen the supervision of ants?

Back in 20 13, a financial summit was held on the bund. Ma Yun also attended and spoke. The point is that his views are very similar to this year. At that time, he got the full support of the government.

Seven years have passed, and nothing new has come out except the official listing. Is this still innovation? Seven years ago, the innovation has made him enjoy a rich return for seven years. Seven years later, more than half of the green light on the road was turned off just to tell him that your innovation is not enough!

Why is the "green light" only turned off "more than half"? Because it is very skillful to turn off the green light this time. On the surface, it is not allowed to pass. Actually, I just told him to drive slowly and stop all the cars to catch up with. As long as you take a closer look at the three key points of the new micro-credit regulations, it is not difficult to find this logic.

Focus 1: Cross-provincial threshold

In the original words, it means "inter-provincial exhibition industry is prohibited in principle". Anyone who is not too honest can see that ants must be treated specially. The latecomers in the industry can only follow the "principle" honestly.

Point 2: loan amount

Specifically, the personal loan limit is 300,000, and the legal person limit is 1 10,000. In addition, proof of income is needed, but this big data that is not difficult for ants has been stumped by a large number of peers.

The biggest obstacle for ants to change the financial structure comes from the traditional banking system. After the Bund speech, Ma Yun was the first to get angry, and nine times out of ten he was the banker. Because every step the ants take, they are moving the cake in the bank.

Affected by the epidemic, this year, banks added online fast loan business, especially "special purpose" consumer loan business. General consumer loans are less than 300,000 yuan, while "special-purpose" consumer loans are generally mainly for decoration, more than 300,000 yuan, or even more than 1 10,000 yuan. This time, the new regulations limit the personal loan amount to 300,000, which is to let ants make their own small loans honestly, and the new cake of the bank this year must not be touched.

Focus 3: Reduce leverage.

By substantially raising the capital requirements, the leverage ratio of Ant Financial has been reduced from 100 times to about 12 times, which has been abruptly pulled to the starting line of commercial banks.

Some people say that ants are not short of money, so why not simply replenish capital?

Not to mention the opportunity cost of increasing hundreds of billions of capital losses, just dragging down the profit indicators of financial reports has a great impact on ant valuation.

First of all, value investors represented by foreign capital attach great importance to the ROE (Return on Net Assets) index. According to the requirements of the new regulations, ants need to increase their capital by three times, which means that their net assets increase greatly, and net assets are the denominator of ROE, so ROE will drop sharply.

Second, the decline in leverage means a decline in net profit. As an important indicator of industry competitiveness, the net interest rate will also drop sharply.

Therefore, ants will be killed and taken seriously. To what extent? According to the original pricing, the PE of ants is more than 50 times, which is the valuation level as a white horse of science and technology. If ants are changed into banks according to the new regulations, the PE of the four major banks is only about 6 times. Of course, ants can't reach this level. At present, the consensus expectation in the industry is that a compromise level, that is, about 25 times of PE, is roughly equivalent to the market value of 1.6 trillion.

Compared with the original pricing, the valuation will be killed by half. It seems unacceptable, but don't forget that before the strategic placement of ants, the general market valuation was only 2.2 trillion yuan. This is because ants abruptly inflated the market value by half through the means of war. Therefore, the valuation is lowered and the gap is huge, that's all.

So, is this pure ant killing? Not exactly.

First of all, ants are at least a family that is really not short of money. If they ask for extra capital, increase it. But for Jingdong Finance, which is ready to keep up with eating meat, isn't his family short of money? That's not necessarily true. As for other small and medium-sized enterprises in this industry, let alone think about it.

Secondly, the government has always given the green light for ants to scramble for IPOs, for no other reason than to set a few benchmarks like Nasdaq. It is very important to have such a giant enterprise representing the future in the stock market and gather popularity for a long time. Since it is a benchmark, the official hopes that ants will continue to rise after listing.

As a result, I got more than 50 times PE without opening the market, and the market value exceeded 3 trillion. Where can I go after opening? So kill the valuation before the opening, so that there is enough room to rise slowly after the opening.

The last thing I want to see is not Ma Yun, but investors who participate in the war matching fund.

There are two consequences of financial early adopters: fewer participants and huge profits, such as science and technology innovation board in the first year. In the case of many participants, take classes-a compulsory course for leek self-cultivation, such as "20cm on a gem" This time, it is said that many people tried to buy war matching funds. ...