Last Friday, a breakthrough was finally made in the tax reform that has been continuously affecting the trend of gold and silver. However, the tax reform has crossed the hill and then hit a cliff. The Senate vote has not yet begun, but the voice against tax reform has been lingering. Coupled with the fermentation of the "TongRumen" incident, the situation in North Korea continued, and the risk aversion continued to heat up. The spot gold that was silent for more than a month climbed all the way, approaching 3,000.
However, earlier this week, a news about the "Queen of Europe"-German Chancellor Angela Merkel broke the calm of the gold market. The news of the failure of the negotiations triggered the fall of the euro. The US debt and the Japanese yen go hand in hand, and the gold gains are limited and fluctuate upward.
The US dollar index rebounded strongly and gold was under pressure.
According to the latest news, German Chancellor Angela Merkel's efforts to reach a four-party coalition agreement failed, which made her leadership status questioned. In this situation, Germany may face new elections.
According to the report, after the 12-hour negotiation meeting that ended before midnight on Sunday, the Liberal Democratic Party withdrew from the talks, saying that the differences with the Green Party were too great to be bridged.
Affected by the news of the failure of the German cabinet formation negotiations, the market risk aversion has also warmed up, because funds outside Asia were immediately sold off and the euro/dollar fell.
Bill Blain, a strategist at MINT Partners, pointed out earlier that the second vote early next year will have a huge negative impact on Merkel herself-if the Coalition government seems to collapse, she may even have to step down, which may cause a huge impact.
Stoyan Mihaylov, a foreign exchange analyst at DeltaStock, said that as long as the EUR/USD is limited below 1. 1870, the outlook will remain bearish, and a new round of decline is expected, targeting the support area of 1. 1730.
The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates four times next year?
Last Friday (165438+ 10/7), Goldman Sachs pointed out in its latest economic outlook report that the Fed may raise interest rates four times next year, which completely exceeds market expectations.
Jan Hatzius, chief economist of Goldman Sachs, predicted in his report that the GDP growth rate of the United States will reach 2.5% next year, and the unemployment rate will also drop sharply.
In addition, Goldman Sachs predicts that the Fed will raise interest rates more than once every quarter in the first half of next year, which means that the federal funds rate will reach 2.25-2.5% by the end of 20 18.
In the past week, the overall performance of US economic data was good. Although the number of first-time applicants is less than expected, it is still at a historical low. Under the strong performance of the US economy, core inflation is bound to accelerate, and the Fed's attitude of raising interest rates may be more hawkish.
CFTC: The net long position of gold decreased slightly.
According to the report released by CFTC last Friday (165438+ 10/7), as of the week of 165438+ 10/4, hedge funds and fund managers had net long positions in COMEX gold.
According to the data of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the net long position of COMEX gold speculation decreased by 706 lots to 195084 lots. At present, the net long position is less than 200,000 lots for four consecutive weeks.
According to the specific data, the speculative long position of gold decreased by 1075 lots to 27 1496 lots. Short positions decreased by 369 lots to 764 12 lots. In addition, the net short position in gold business decreased by 504 lots to 2 1579 1 lot.
Last week, gold was in a shock range for a long time and it was difficult to break through, which led speculators to turn to bearish gold.