Today, the China stock market has been running, and public opinion has gradually evolved from the initial unanimous bearish to the other extreme-all-round bullish. My view is basically clear to everyone, that is, the market seems to have rebounded strongly in the last five or six weeks, and I have never been optimistic. In addition to the many reasons already mentioned, I would like to emphasize the most fundamental one: the China stock market has no investment value at all.
I used the share prices of world-class giants such as Intel as an example to show how overvalued the shares of listed companies in China are. If you still don't believe it, look at the latest statistics of Professor Dong Dengxin. I did some calculations, except that the P/E ratio of Hong Kong's main edition is less than 19 times, while the domestic P/E ratio is more than 60 times, another important fact that needs attention is that among the 30 A+H listed companies, the average price of A is 2.7 times that of H shares. The most important phenomenon is whether you have noticed that the A shares of H-share companies never produce bull stocks, which is well known to most old investors, because the price comparison effect makes institutions afraid to sit in such stocks. If the above calculation range is extended to all stocks, then the price comparison between the two is more than 2.7 times? I'm afraid this multiple will double again!
Who dares to invest in such a stock market?
Second, go against the market: funds dig their own graves.
Whoever God wants to destroy must first make him crazy!
Maybe you will ask: there are countless market makers, why do you single out funds? Very simple, because the fund has become the biggest market maker, because of the huge contrast between the fund investment concept and the actual operation, because the fund has affected thousands of households!
Over the years, the fund has always given people the impression that it is a value investment and operates steadily. However, this time it was very unexpected. Just when other institutions dare not continue to raise their share prices and gradually withdraw from the market, the fund moves against the international and domestic markets and policy environment. In the absence of full consolidation, relying on its extraordinary financial strength, it jumped up with lightning speed, opened higher and walked higher, and took advantage of the unique effect of the heavyweights in the market, regardless of the fact that most stocks were still consolidating or falling, forcing the market to rise by 1,000 points against the market. Its technical means are not inferior to any bookmaker in history.
As I said, the fund has been pushing the market against the market for only one purpose, that is, shipping. After the big bull market, it is really difficult to estimate how many chips the fund has. Funds and other institutions have invested amazing funds in this round of market, and the money earned on the books is incalculable. Unfortunately, most of them are still rich on paper, and they will not turn into cash if they don't ship. What I am most anxious to do now is to try my best to deliver the goods, sell the paper to investors and put the money in my pocket. If the market plummets now, the idea of fund lightening will go up in smoke. But from the recent market turnover and other aspects, can the fund really clear the goods? I find it difficult. From the recent analysis of the situation that funds have highly controlled the stock market and only pushed up the stock price by the opposite side, many funds really miscalculated this time, leaving their children behind, but failed to catch the wolf.
Therefore, the fund is really anxious these days. It took two minutes from the first heavyweight to the daily limit, and the second phenomenon can be seen from the great difference in the number of heavyweights in Shanghai and Shenzhen. In fact, the fund is really difficult these days. On the one hand, we have to run around the market, jump up and down, on the other hand, we have to fabricate a lot of remarks out of thin air in the market, on the other hand, we may have to seek the support and cooperation of relevant parties. But who will really believe it now? Unless you are a fool!
Understandably, any dealer should gradually ship the goods before the market peaks. But why are only funds and a few bookmakers in dire straits? The reason is simple: they are too confident! Confident enough to do whatever you want, confident enough to ignore the power of market trends! Of course, there is a more important reason: I misjudged the situation and even took over the chips sold by other bookmakers at a high market level; I underestimated the current investors and thought that waving the banner would usher in a hundred arguments. Analyzing the present situation, maybe they can last for a while, but how can they last for a lifetime? If you say that your pain two years ago has been cured, why can't you learn from the fiasco of bookmakers such as the collapse of Delong Troika and the disappearance of Yinguangxia myth?
Operators who go against the market will fail. This is an unavoidable law in the history of Chinese and foreign stock markets. At that time, the market environment in Taiwan Province Province was basically the same as today, such as the rising currency and the prevalence of predators in various markets, and finally the same mistake was made. At that time, Taiwan Province stock market started from 1 1,000, and in less than two years, it has soared to 1 2,000. However, the good times did not last long. After the five waves rose and the fifth wave expanded, the market began to fall, and it took less than half a year to fall back to 2000 points in one breath. However, just when the market peaked, some powerful institutions were not satisfied with the profits on the books several times, trying to support the market after the market began to fall. As a result, it is conceivable that almost no operators survive against the market. For example, the powerful No.1 Dazhuang Leibolong Group, because a large number of chips were not thrown out, once struggled to support after the market opened down, but in the end it was unable to compete with the market. Not only did more than 654.38 billion assets turn to ashes, but they were also heavily in debt, and the outcome was very tragic.
At present, the fund is still fearless because of its large amount of funds and special market position, but this situation will soon change. Although all the road-based funds are state-owned enterprises, the huge funds in their hands are not their own, and they do not have to bear all the responsibilities like private equity funds. Just as state-owned banks can squander the money of the state and the people at will, the state will give priority to protection when considering the interests of all parties in the market, but this situation is limited in time and degree. When a fund company runs out of ammunition, even if the state tries to give some financial support and policy protection, it is worthwhile and necessary to give consideration to political and social interests at the expense of some fund companies' economic interests. From the early futures companies, to the later trust companies and then to the later securities companies, we have every reason to make such a conclusion. In recent days, citizens in some places have begun to redeem funds, and fund companies may soon feel the financial pressure. The fund's market operation strategy may be forced to change soon, and the market may be really dangerous, and the crisis of fund companies is even more inevitable.
Third, the price of madness.
How much can the market grow now? I think even most stock critics are boring to speculate there, except that fake cattle people are still advocating 5000 points or 8000 points or even 10000 points. They feel sad when they are wrong, and they feel smart when they are right. In fact, it is difficult to explain the current position of the stock index with any theory or law, especially when the fund is in charge of the market. In the history of China stock market, which big bull market is not so late? I remember that at the beginning of 1993, when the market predicted that the Shanghai stock market would rise to 1800 on the grounds that the real estate prices in Hainan and Shenzhen were still skyrocketing at that time, the market reversed in the blink of an eye, falling from 1600 to more than 300. Who would have thought at the beginning of the market decline?
In order to attract and stabilize the basic people, it is entirely possible for funds to try to protect the market for a period of time. But what we can't be confused is that the stock index is already above the dangerous building and may collapse at any time. Although I dare not predict whether and when the China stock market will really crash, one thing is certain: China stock market will and must return to its value! If the P/E ratio of China stock market returns to normal level, I don't need to calculate it for you here.
There is another point that deserves our high attention: although China has China's national conditions and Japanese and Taiwan Province provinces also have their own characteristics, the stock markets of any country have something in common-