1. Active market bear market arbitrage: If the recent supply increases but the demand decreases, resulting in the recent contract price decline greater than the forward or the recent contract price increase less than the forward, you can sell the recent contract and buy the forward contract at the same time. 2. Because the demand is far greater than the supply, the spot price is higher than the futures price, and the recent futures contract price is higher than the forward contract. At this point, although the spot position fee still exists, it has been ignored and the buyer is willing to bear it. Therefore, you can sell the latest monthly contract and buy the forward monthly contract at the same time.

Take corn futures as an example to introduce the application of bear market arbitrage. 20 12, 10, 1, 20 13 March corn contract price is 2. 16 USD/bushel, and May contract price is 2.25 USD/bushel, the former is 9 cents lower than the latter. Traders expect corn prices to fall, and the spread between March and May futures contracts may widen. Therefore, traders sell 1 lot (1 lot is 5000 bushels) March corn contracts and buy 1 lot May corn contracts at the same time. By 65438+February 1, the corn futures price dropped to 2 2. 10/bushel and 2.22 $/bushel in March and May respectively, and the price difference between them was 12 cents, which widened. Traders close two futures contracts at the same time, thus completing arbitrage trading.