Recently, the corn market has been weak and volatile, and it can't lift any spirits. As time goes by, it is getting closer and closer to the listing of new corn, and there is not much time left for corn.
Corn has weakened again and again, can it still rise?
1, corn "three falls * * * vibration"
Recently, there has been an obvious "three falls * * * shock" in corn, that is, futures and spot fell together, and both at home and abroad fell together.
The decline in corn futures is mainly based on market sentiment.
The current market sentiment is influenced by two factors: first, the resumption of directional rice auction impacts the corn market, which makes the short-term supply of corn relatively sufficient and the market sentiment is low; Second, the domestic wheat fell and the corn ceiling was lowered.
The decline of the spot market is also mainly affected by two factors: first, the trend of corn has been fluctuating in the early stage, and the purchase and sale are not prosperous, which leads to the high social inventory of corn in the case of green and yellow; Second, after heavy rainfall, some corn is not easy to preserve, traders' mood is loose, and the concentration is improved.
On the one hand, the sharp interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve slowed down global economic expectations, and inflation peaked, which made the overall mood of the grain market fall. On the other hand, with the news of high yield from some major grain producing countries, the tension in the grain market has eased.
2. Fundamental analysis at home and abroad
First of all, from the perspective of the international corn market, the fluctuation will continue.
Although the June planting report released by the US Department of Agriculture shows that the corn planting area is higher than expected, it does not mean that the corn is loose. On the contrary, due to uncertain factors such as weather changes, it is not completely negative.
The market has also verified this, and Chicago corn prices have recently bottomed out.
However, there is still a gap between supply and demand in China.
This year's soybean expansion will reduce the corn area and affect the yield, but it is only a problem of large quantity and small area; On the other hand, the domestic weather is unstable, so the yield and quality of domestic corn have yet to be verified.
On the demand side, pig breeding resumed and feed demand increased.
The substitution of wheat and rice is limited, and there is market space for corn.
The cost of imported corn is still high, the absolute advantage is small, and the market impact is weakened, but the cost increase will become the norm.
3. Late trend of corn.
To sum up, it is somewhat arbitrary to think that corn has gone.
On the one hand, domestic demand is unstable and there are variables.
It is also normal for food prices to fluctuate periodically. Moreover, due to the impact of cost support, corn has fallen to freezing point, and some traders are more resistant to low-priced shipments. Therefore, it is still too early to draw conclusions about the follow-up trend.
On the other hand, before the new season corn goes on the market, with the continuous reduction of corn production in North China, the trend of corn in Northeast China will become the key.
Internationally, the second half of the year will focus on the development of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the impact of weather changes. It is recommended to be calm and not impatient.
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