654381Since the domestic refined oil price was raised on October 26th, the crude oil output of the United States has further increased, and the downward pressure on international oil prices has increased. Although the demand data of petroleum products showed strong performance during the period, and Goldman Sachs Group raised its price expectations, which brought optimistic expectations to the market, oil prices once closed higher. But then the dollar bottomed out and rebounded. At the same time, the surge of active drilling platforms in the United States has been further curbed, and international oil prices have fallen again.
As of the close of February 6th, the price of light crude oil futures for March delivery in the New York Mercantile Exchange dropped by 0.76 USD to 63.39 USD per barrel, with a decrease of 1. 18%. London Brent crude oil futures for April delivery fell 0.76 USD to 66.86 USD per barrel, or 1. 14%.
As a result, the change rate of domestic reference crude oil continued to decline from positive to negative, which led to the current round of price adjustment changing from stranded expectation to decline. According to Zhuo Chuang information data, as of February 6th, the change rate of crude oil referenced on the eighth working day in China was-1.98%, and the corresponding gasoline and diesel oil was lowered by 106 yuan/ton, far exceeding the price adjustment line of 50 yuan/ton stipulated by the National Development and Reform Commission.
Zheng Mingya, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, judged that from the news point of view, the negative news of oil-producing countries and the bottoming out of the US dollar will put some pressure on the trend of short-term crude oil. From a technical point of view, if the market continues to lack good news injection in the later period, it is very likely that European and American crude oil will fall after falling below the support level. As a result, the change rate of domestic reference crude oil will continue to deepen negatively, and the probability of the first downward adjustment of oil prices during the year is also increasing.
Zou Xuelian, an analyst at Jinlianchuang, also said that as of the seventh working day on February 6th, the average price of reference crude oil varieties was 66.53 USD/barrel, with a change rate of-1.29%, which means that the gasoline and diesel prices will be lowered by 95 yuan/ton. Only three working days away from the price adjustment window, crude oil will remain weak in the later period. Therefore, this round of oil price reduction is a high probability event, which will be the first round of downward adjustment in the year, and will be lowered again after more than seven months. It is estimated that the downward adjustment of gasoline and diesel will exceed 100 yuan.
It is understood that since July 2, 20 17, the domestic retail price of refined oil has been adjusted for 9 times, and all of them have been raised.
"Although the current round of retail price reduction is limited, the end of the six-month rise in retail prices still makes end users happy. Moreover, this round of downward adjustment coincides with the Lunar New Year, with the increase of private cars, the expansion of travel radius, the increase of gasoline consumption and the slight reduction of travel costs. At the same time, there are discounts at gas stations, and the travel pressure is not great. However, during the festival, logistics and transportation basically stopped, and diesel prices fell slightly, which had little impact on the terminal. " Zou Xuelian said.