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At which stage of the economic cycle is China now?
Enter the period of economic recovery.

First of all, commodity prices have rebounded and PPI has bottomed out. Under the impact of the epidemic, Brent oil price once fell to $20 per barrel, and since May, it has obviously rebounded above 40 yuan. Rebar futures prices rebounded from 3 100 yuan in early April to around 3,900 yuan. PPI bottomed out in May and then rose to -2% in August.

It should be noted that policies at this stage are often no longer the main contradiction in the market. In the early stage of recovery, because the upward momentum of the economy is still weak, it will be more sensitive to policies. However, when the economic recovery gradually enters a prosperous period, the impact of policies on the market will greatly give way to profitability. In the fourth quarter of 20 16, the marginal tightening of policies had little impact on the market. With the economic boom, the market of 20 17 is more profit-driven.