The market monitoring department of the National Grain and Oil Information Center recently predicted that in 2007, China's corn planting area will increase and its output will increase by 3 million tons, with an increase rate of 2. 1%. Analysts believe that in 2007, the supply and demand of China corn market will be basically balanced, and the price will be generally stable. Due to the increasing shortage of energy, the price of corn soared in 2006, and the deep processing industry of corn developed rapidly. According to statistics, by the end of June, the price ratio of corn was 25% higher than that of1October, 65438+February. At present, although the Spring Festival is approaching, farmers in some parts of Northeast China are still reluctant to sell corn. The corn stocks of some deep processing enterprises are relatively low, and their profitability generally drops sharply. A few enterprises have suffered losses.
In 2006, the price of corn in China rose sharply, and the market supply was generally tight, mainly because many new deep processing projects were launched in 2006, while other traditional demands, such as feed consumption and food consumption, did not increase significantly, or even decreased slightly. It is expected that the demand growth rate of corn industry will decrease in the future after the relevant state departments require the biofuel ethanol industry to "adhere to non-grain orientation". According to market data, the domestic corn output in 2004/2005 was 65.438+0.3 billion tons, and the consumption in that year was 65.438+0.28 billion tons, leaving 2 million tons. In 2005/2006, the domestic corn output was 65.438+0.39 billion tons, the consumption in that year was 65.438+0.37 billion tons, and the remaining was 65.438+0.5 million tons. The demand growth rate reached 4.9% and 7% respectively. According to the annual growth rate of 6%, the total corn consumption in China will increase by 8.22 million tons in 2006/2007, reaching 654.38+45 million tons.
The National Grain and Oil Information Center predicted in June 5438+ 10 that the corn planting area in China in 2007 was 27.35 million hectares, an increase of 300,000 hectares over the previous year's 27.05 million hectares, with an increase of 1. 1%. The main reason is that the benefit of corn planting is higher than that of soybean, which makes part of soybean planting area transfer to corn. Under normal meteorological conditions, it is estimated that the corn output in China in 2007 will be 654.38+45 million tons, an increase of 3 million tons or 2 1% over the previous year's 654.38+42 million tons. In 2007, the supply and demand of corn market in China were basically balanced, and the price performance was generally stable. The variables will mainly lie in the rapid growth of world corn consumption and the possible shortage of supply and demand in the international market, so the pulling effect of exports on the market will still be reflected.
1, aquaculture consumption
In the first half of 2006, affected by the outbreak of animal diseases such as bird flu, the aquaculture industry fell into a downturn, and the price of pig food fell to 4.37: 1, the lowest since 2000. The negative profit of aquaculture leads to a sharp decline in domestic stocks, which directly affects feed consumption demand. Since August, the prosperity of domestic aquaculture industry has obviously rebounded, and the demand for corn consumption is strong. In September, the price of pig food rose to 5.52: 1, and the aquaculture industry made initial profits. At present, with the approach of the Spring Festival and the fattening period of pigs, cattle, sheep and poultry, farmers will make up for it with profits again, and the consumption of corn as feed will further increase. Last year, the consumption of feed corn was165.3 billion Jin, and this year the consumption of feed corn in China may reach the level of170 billion Jin.
2. Deep processing consumption
In the past two years, influenced by the demand of downstream products of corn deep processing and the rich processing benefits, large-scale corn deep processing projects such as alcohol, starch, lysine and fuel ethanol with corn as raw materials have developed rapidly, and most of the new production capacity is concentrated in the main corn producing areas in Northeast China. The actual conversion of corn deep processing is increasing, and the corn grain source is getting less and less, which will support the price increase of corn.
According to the statistics of National Grain and Oil Information Center, in 2005, the deep processing capacity of corn in China reached about 654.38+000 billion Jin, and the actual processing consumption of corn was 57.7 billion Jin. It is estimated that the processing capacity will reach 654.38+04 billion Jin in 2006, and the corn consumption is estimated to be about 70 billion Jin. In 2007, the processing capacity will increase to170 billion Jin, and it is estimated that 75 billion Jin of corn will be consumed. At present, China's corn industrial processing products mainly include starch and alcohol. In 2005, China produced 9 million tons of starch and consumed130,000 tons of corn. Alcohol contains 2.9 million tons of fuel ethanol and consumes 8.9 million tons of corn.
3. exit.
According to the statistics of the General Administration of Customs, China exported 3.74 million tons of corn in 2005/2006, a decrease of 5 1% compared with the previous year. In the first 65,438+00 months of 2006, * * * exported 2.35 million tons of corn, down 68.7% year-on-year, mainly due to the decrease in exports caused by the strengthening of domestic demand in China.
In 2006/2007, global corn production was lower than consumption, and supply and demand became tense. According to the data of USDA, the global corn output in 2006/2007 was about 688.73 million tons, which was about 40 1 10,000 tons less than the previous year. Consumption exceeded 700 million tons for the first time, reaching about 723.27 million tons, an increase of about 24.55 million tons over the previous year. It can be seen that the output is lower than the consumption, and the gap is about 35.54 million tons, which is the biggest gap since 1988/ 1989. According to the data of USDA, in 2006/2007, the consumption ratio of global corn stocks fell to about 12.4%, which was at a historical low. It should be noted that the global corn production remained at a high level in 2006/2007, and the main reason for the tight global corn supply and demand was the rapid growth of global corn consumption. The tight supply and demand in the international market laid the bottom support for the price increase.
In addition to the supply and demand factors, the more critical factor affecting the international corn price lies in the supply and demand of corn in major exporting countries, especially the United States. In 2006, the corn production in the United States decreased compared with the previous year, while the domestic corn consumption in the United States increased significantly. In 2006/2007, the domestic corn consumption in the United States is expected to reach 245.5 million tons, an increase of14.98 million tons over the previous year, with an increase of about 6.5%. At the same time of domestic demand growth, the US corn export situation in 2006/2007 also performed well. From the perspective of supply and demand, the supply and demand of corn in the United States is tighter than last year. Therefore, from the situation in the United States, it also supports the higher international corn prices.
The influence of macro-control policies
1, export policy
5438+065438+June 2006+10, due to global stock shortage and weather, the domestic corn price rose out of season, which led to farmers' reluctance to sell, making the originally scarce supply even more tense. Previously, in July, China signed an export contract for 4 million tons of corn with the shipment date of 1 1 from 2006 to February 2007. Due to insufficient purchase volume and frequent price increase, corn exports are in danger of washing ships. In order to control the excessive growth of domestic corn prices and meet the demand of domestic export and processing procurement, the state issued a policy of suspending corn export registration after March 2007, which is also the first case in which the state regulates corn prices. Shortly after the introduction of China's export suspension policy, Argentina and India announced that they would suspend the issuance of corn export licenses to safeguard national food security. The export restrictions of the three major exporting countries make the heavy responsibility of corn export fall on the United States, and importers concentrate on purchasing in the United States, which has played a supporting role in the rise of corn prices in the United States.
2. Energy treatment policy.
Due to the sharp increase in domestic consumption, it has brought a series of domestic chain reactions, making corn prices hit new highs frequently. The country still can't curb the price increase by selling a small amount of stocks. As a result, the state has successively introduced policies to limit the excessive growth of consumption, among which the fastest-growing ethanol processing industry bears the brunt. The National Development and Reform Commission issued an urgent notice asking all localities not to blindly develop corn ethanol processing capacity, but also to clean up corn processing projects. The approval and construction of fuel ethanol projects in any region must be submitted to the state for approval. The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has restricted and urgently stopped the project of corn processing to produce ethanol fuel. Although it is intended to regulate the market, it is not intended to narrow down and restrict the development of biofuel ethanol industry, and it will still limit the corn consumption of many ethanol processing enterprises in the short term, so it has also played a certain role in restraining the price increase of corn. It is understood that the national "Eleventh Five-Year" special plan for biofuel ethanol development is being formulated, and the overall development plan of the industry will be expanded according to the market development, and the raw materials for biofuel ethanol production will mainly be "non-grain" such as potatoes, sweet sorghum and fiber resources.
Trend forecast in 2007
From the perspective of global supply and demand and ending inventory, the overall supply is decreasing year by year, while the demand is increasing year by year. Among them, the United States, as the world's largest producer and consumer of corn, has developed rapidly in its ethanol processing industry due to the demand for fuel gasoline, and its raw material is mainly corn, which will greatly increase the global demand for corn. The author predicts that in 2007, American corn production will continue to decrease, and the inventory will also drop sharply, which will greatly reduce the domestic export volume, thus tightening the global corn supply shortage.
Similarly, due to the rapid development of ethanol deep processing industry, the corn market in China is in short supply. With the cooperation of aquaculture and export increase, China corn market will go out of the annual rising market. However, judging from the recent national macro-control policy orientation, due to concerns about food security, the state has strictly managed, approved and controlled ethanol processing enterprises and exports. Inferred from the policy attitude of the country, the country intends to curb the growth rate of corn prices, so that corn prices remain stable, while all industries develop in a balanced way, and the adverse impact of the sharp rise in corn prices on downstream industries and the national economy and people's livelihood is weakened. Although the state intends to curb the price increase and speed, it is not to control the price increase of corn.
In addition, it is expected that the impact of the futures market on the spot market will continue in 2007, especially the energy characteristics and resource attributes of corn will increase the value of corn itself, and the price of corn needs to seek a reasonable level. It is predicted that the corn price in China will remain at a high level in 2007, because of the tight supply and demand of corn. At the same time, in 2007, the corn planting area increased, and the global inventory fell sharply, which easily caused the corn market to fluctuate and had an impact on the new year's output and corn price. On the whole, it is predicted that the corn market price will rise steadily in 2007 under the leading role of relatively tight balance between supply and demand, but due to some uncertain factors, the possibility of high-level oscillation cannot be ruled out.