According to different issuers, the bond issuance market can be divided into government bonds, financial securities and corporate bonds. The issuer is as follows:
(1) bonds such as national debt are mainly guaranteed by the government's credit and do not need mortgage guarantee. The credit rating is the highest, and it is divided into two different issuers: central government bonds and local government bonds.
(2) Financial bonds: The issuers of such bonds are banks and non-bank financial institutions.
(3) Corporate bonds: The issuers of corporate bonds are enterprises (companies), which generally raise funds for business needs. The general issuer's company must participate in the credit rating and reach a certain rating before issuing bonds.
By the end of June 5438+February, 2020, there were 4,686 issuers in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, including 3,689 issuers in Shanghai Stock Exchange and 997 issuers in Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
Quantity and scale of bond issuance
According to the financial market operation published by the People's Bank of China, from 20 14 to 2020, the total bond issuance in China showed an upward trend, and the growth rate gradually decreased in 20 19, but it rebounded in the first half of 2020 when the economy was depressed. With the rapid economic recovery, the bond issuance in the bond market in 2020 increased a lot compared with the same period of last year.
This is due to the economic development and the expansion of the bond market. There are also reasons why the rapid decline in interest rates has led to the centralized issuance of bonds by enterprises before May 2020. According to the statistics of the central bank, in 2020, China issued 56.94 trillion yuan of various bonds, a year-on-year increase of about 26%.
From the perspective of China's bond issuance structure in 2020, among all bond varieties, the financial bond issuance accounts for the largest proportion. In 2020, * * * issued 29. 1.5 trillion yuan, accounting for about 51.20%; Followed by corporate credit bonds, in 2020, * * * issued 14.20 trillion yuan, accounting for 24.94%; In addition, there are government bonds. In 2020, * * * issued 13.53 trillion yuan, accounting for about 23.76%; The circulation of international institutional bonds is the least, reaching 55.4 billion yuan, accounting for only 0. 10%.
Bond issuance rate
The interest rate of national debt can reflect the interest rate level of China financial market to some extent. Taking 10-year treasury bonds as a reference, the issue rate of 10-year treasury bonds tends to fall in the second half of 20 19, and the issue rate at the end of 20 19 is about 3. 1%. In 2020, the issue interest rate will continue to fall until May. It will reach the same level of 19 by the end of 2020. In 2020, 1 18 will issue 10-year fixed-rate government bonds with an interest rate of about 3.27%.
The interest rate of local debt issuance is basically the same as that of national debt. From June 5438 to April 2020, the cost of issuing local bonds fell with the interest rate of the bond market, and rebounded with the market from May to June 2020. The overall issue cost is about 22-30bp higher than the interest rate of government bonds with the same maturity, and the issue cost at the end of the year is higher than the market interest rate. From June 5438 to February 2020, the average interest rate of local debt issuance in China was 3.46%.
Forecast of bond issuance prospect
In recent years, China's bond market has developed rapidly, and the scale of bond issuance has entered the forefront of the world. China has become the third largest bond market in the world, but compared with developed markets, it still has great potential in the future. According to the current economic situation, the bond issuance in China will continue to increase in 20021year.
The overall financing situation in the future will still be beneficial to non-financial enterprises. Although the average rate of return has rebounded from the low point in the second quarter, there are still great potential refinancing channels. To sum up, it is estimated that between 2002/KLOC-0 and 2026, China will issue bonds totaling about 466 trillion RMB.
The above data comes from the Analysis Report on Market Foresight and Investment Strategic Planning of China Bond Industry by Forward-looking Industry Research Institute.