generally speaking
First of all, the current development of international trade presents six major trends.
(1) International trade has entered a new round of growth, and the role of trade in stimulating economic growth has become increasingly prominent.
With the rapid growth of the world economy and the in-depth development of economic globalization, the current international trade growth has obviously accelerated and has entered a new round of growth. In 2004, the global trade in goods increased by 2 1% in nominal terms, reaching the highest level in 25 years. Driven by the strong growth of the world economy and the strong demand for energy and raw materials in the international market, and influenced by the depreciation of the US dollar, the global trade in goods and services in 2004 was nearly 1 1 trillion US dollars, with a growth rate of 20%, maintaining a high-speed growth trend. The rapid growth of global trade is the common result of scientific and technological progress, productivity improvement and deepening international division of labor, and it also promotes world production. Since the 1990s, the growth rate of international trade has continuously exceeded the growth rate of world production, which has led to an increase in the dependence on foreign trade of all countries in the world.
(2) The trade pattern centered on developed countries has not changed, and China has become a new rising force for international trade growth.
The three major economies of the United States, Japan and Europe are not only the main forces in the world economy, but also occupy a dominant position in international trade. In 2004, the share of Germany, the United States and Japan in world goods export reached 10%, 9% and 6.2% respectively. At present, developed countries have occupied more than 70% of the world's goods exports and more than 90% of the world's service trade. More importantly, developed countries have gained most trade benefits in international exchanges by carrying out regional trade cooperation, controlling the multilateral trading system and leading the international trade order.
China is the most striking "bright spot" in the growth of international trade in recent years, which shows that China's share and ranking in the global trade volume are rising, and its contribution to the global trade increment is more significant. Since 200 1 joined the WTO, China's ranking in global trade has increased by one place every year. In 2004, China's foreign trade volume reached1154.8 billion US dollars, surpassing Japan to become the third largest trading country after the United States and Germany, accounting for 6.4% and 20% of the global trade in goods respectively.
(3) The multilateral trading system is facing new challenges, and global regional economic cooperation is in the ascendant.
The new round of WTO negotiations has made slow progress since it was launched. After the failure of the Cancun meeting in 2003, the negotiations once came to a standstill. On August 1 day, 2004, 147 WTO members reached an agreement on the framework of a new round of multilateral trade negotiations, but the contents of the agreement were relatively principled and general, and there were still great differences among members on issues such as agricultural and non-agricultural market access. 2005 is a crucial year for the Doha Round negotiations. Developed and developing members will negotiate the substance of the main topics at the Hong Kong Ministerial Meeting from June 5 to 38+February 5. It is worth noting that due to various regional trade agreements and overlapping members, some trade agreements have gone beyond the traditional scope of reducing trade and investment barriers, which has brought great impact to the multilateral trading system.
At the same time, regional economic cooperation with regional trade arrangements as the main form has accelerated development and presented many new trends. First, regional trade arrangements have developed rapidly. As of June 5438+ 10, 2005, there were 162 effective regional trade arrangements, of which more than 80% were established in the past 10 years. Second, major trading powers are pursuing the dominant position of regional trade arrangements. While promoting the establishment of the Free Trade Area of the Americas, the United States is also negotiating free trade areas with many countries, including South Korea and South Africa. After the eastward expansion in May 2004, the EU became the largest regional trade group in the world, and plans to negotiate and sign free trade agreements with all Latin American countries and ASEAN. Japan has signed a free trade agreement with Singapore and is negotiating with South Korea and Thailand. Third, the proportion of trade among members of regional trade arrangements has further increased. In 2004, the total intraregional trade accounted for more than 50% of the total international trade. Fourthly, the competition between countries is changing to that between regional economic groups. Regional trade arrangement has become a strategic means for countries to strive for market resources, expand development space and enhance their international status, which has had a great impact on the world economic and political structure.
(4) The international trade structure has been upgraded, and the development of service trade and technology trade is in the ascendant.
The upgrading of international trade structure and industrial structure are interdependent, and there are two outstanding characteristics from their changing trends. First, with the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure in various countries, global service trade has developed rapidly. In recent 20 years, the scale of international service trade has expanded from $360 billion in 1980 to $2 1 trillion at present, accounting for 19% of global trade. From the perspective of industry structure, service trade is increasingly inclined to emerging service industries such as finance, insurance, telecommunications, information and consulting, and the share of traditional transportation and tourism continues to decline; As far as regional distribution is concerned, the share of service trade of developing countries continues to expand, especially in East Asia. Second, the position of high-tech products in the trade of manufactured goods has been greatly improved, especially the export of information and communication technology products has grown the fastest. At the same time, as multinational companies transfer high-tech industries represented by information technology to developing countries, the proportion of technology-intensive products exported by developing countries in the world has increased rapidly in recent years, from 1985 to 16.6% in 2000.
(E) The trend of trade and investment integration is obvious, and the leading role of multinational corporations in global trade is increasing.
Driven by economic globalization, factors of production, especially capital, flow more freely around the world. By establishing production and marketing networks around the world, multinational corporations have promoted the increasing integration of trade and investment, which has had a far-reaching impact on the international economic and trade pattern. First, multinational corporations have become the core force of global resource allocation. At present, there are 62,000 multinational companies in the world, which not only control the global 1/3 production and 70% technology transfer, but also control two-thirds of the global international trade and 90% of foreign direct investment. Second, the basis of international trade has changed from comparative advantage to competitive advantage based on the number of multinational companies and the ability to integrate resources in the international scope. This means that the more enterprises a country has an international competitive advantage, the more it can integrate the resources of other countries in the international division of labor. Third, the pattern of international trade has changed from inter-industry trade to intra-industry trade and intra-company trade. Mainly manifested in the increase in the proportion of intermediate products and parts trade in international trade. Fourth, the industrial transfer of multinational corporations has accelerated, and the proportion of processing trade in the whole international trade has continued to increase, becoming the growth point of foreign trade of developing countries. As the largest developing country and the third largest trading country in the world, China's processing trade accounts for 48% of the total trade, accounting for half of the country.
(6) The struggle between trade liberalization and protectionism has intensified, and various trade barriers have emerged one after another.
Under the impetus of economic globalization, economic exchanges among countries in the world are more frequent, and trade liberalization has become an irreversible trend. However, with the continuous expansion of the scale of international trade, the greater the possibility of trade friction. At present, the imbalance of economic prosperity among countries, the competitiveness of industrial and trade structures, the exclusiveness of regional trade groups, the polarization of trade distribution interests and the politicization of economic and trade issues are all important reasons for the endless emergence of trade protectionism.
At present, the world has entered a period of high incidence of trade disputes, and presents the following characteristics. First, the trade friction caused by strategic interests has increased. In 2004, the United States and the European Union blamed each other on aviation subsidies and finally resorted to the WTO dispute settlement mechanism, which is the most typical case. Second, the means of trade protection are constantly being refurbished. Various technical barriers have become new weapons for trade protection, and intellectual property disputes have become important disputes in international trade. Third, friction has shifted from a simple trade issue to a more comprehensive field. Social security and exchange rate system have become new areas of friction, and the trend of interaction between resource friction and trade friction is becoming more and more obvious. Fourth, China has become the biggest victim of international trade protection. From 1995 to 10, China has been the country that suffered the most anti-dumping. In 2005, the world textile trade began to realize integration, and the textile trade friction faced by China may become a new focus.
Second, some ideas.
These new trends in the current international trade development have had a far-reaching impact on the economic and trade development of all countries in the world. Dialectically looking at the current international trade environment facing China, we should not only see the challenges existing in the opportunities, but also see the opportunities contained in the challenges. We must establish a global strategic awareness, further improve the level of opening to the outside world, and create more space and more favorable conditions for domestic development.
(1) Dealing with and developing the economic and trade relations of big countries and expanding the external space for China's economic development.
The United States, Japan, Europe, Russia and ASEAN are not only global trading powers (groups), but also important economic and trade partners of China. In 2004, China's trade with the European Union, the United States, Japan and ASEAN all exceeded US$ 654.38+0773 billion, reaching US$ 654.38+0696 billion, US$ 654.38+0679 billion and US$ 654.38+059 billion respectively, accounting for half of China's total foreign trade. At present, although the scale of Sino-Russian trade is relatively small, the prospects for cooperation between the two sides in the fields of oil and gas, mineral resources and high technology are very broad. Deepening economic and trade relations with these countries and regions at a higher level and in a wider field is related to the overall situation of China's foreign economic work.
(2) Actively develop regional economic cooperation and multilateral economic and trade relations, and promote the establishment of a global free trade system conducive to China's economic development.
Participating in regional economic cooperation is of great economic and political significance. Conscientiously implement the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area agreement on trade in goods and promote trade facilitation in the Greater Mekong Subregion. Continue to promote new progress in economic and trade cooperation among SCO member States. A more open global multilateral trading system is in the long-term interests of all WTO members, including China. According to the World Bank's estimation, if the Doha Round is successful, it will bring more than 500 billion dollars of economic benefits to the world before 20 15. We should actively promote the Doha Round of WTO negotiations and play a constructive role in the multilateral economic and trade system. Do a good job in dealing with the first review of WTO trade policy towards China and negotiating with WTO applicants. Actively participate in the activities of multilateral international organizations such as the United Nations, and further play my role in UNCTAD, UNDP and other institutions.
(3) Accelerate the transformation of foreign trade growth mode and focus on promoting the export of high-tech products and services.
China's growth mode based on quantity growth is more and more restricted, so it is necessary to speed up the transformation of foreign trade from quantity growth to quality success. We will continue to implement and improve export tax rebate and other policies to ensure the steady growth of exports, and at the same time make great efforts to change the mode of export growth. Pay close attention to adjusting the export structure of labor-intensive products and improve the export quality, grade and price of superior products such as textiles, light industry and household appliances; Increase policy support for the general trade of superior agricultural products such as vegetables, fruits and flowers, and strive to achieve zero tax rate for agricultural products exports; We will further implement the strategy of invigorating trade through science and technology, do a good job in the construction of export bases for high-tech products, software and medicines, focus on supporting the export of automobiles and parts, ships, railway equipment, communication products, biomedicine and other products, and accelerate the formation of a pattern in which high-tech products drive the export of mechanical and electrical products and mechanical and electrical products drive foreign trade exports; Implement brand development strategy and support the export of goods with independent intellectual property rights and independent brands; Promote the transformation and upgrading of processing trade, focusing on the introduction of high-end processing value-added links.
Give full play to the advantages of global "big buyers" and organize and coordinate the import of urgently needed energy, important raw materials, key technologies and major equipment in China. In accordance with international practice, we will explore pilot projects that meet the requirements of centralized procurement of bulk products, actively and steadily develop trading methods such as futures, and improve the bargaining power of energy and important raw materials. Introduce advanced high-tech products and environmental protection, large-scale medical and electric equipment by international bidding, and combine the import of key equipment and advanced technology with digestion, absorption and innovation to promote the development of domestic equipment manufacturing industry; Urge some developed countries to relax restrictions on high-tech exports to China.
(4) Improve the level of coping with trade frictions and the transition period after China's entry into WTO, and create an external environment conducive to development.
Personally, I feel there are both free trade and protectionism. Trade is not good this year, and the country has also adjusted its policies. The actual feeling is that if you trade, there will be fewer people buying things abroad! Just like China, it has also begun to stimulate domestic consumption, instead of stimulating people to buy things abroad.
Our company exports 350 million dollars a year, and now it seems that it has dropped by 65.438 million dollars in the first quarter.
Come on, get through this. You'll be fine.
I hope I can help you.