First, the stock market and the price of crude oil.
If the stock market falls, it is generally considered as a sign that the economic situation is not good, which means that the demand for crude oil is declining. There are fewer people buying crude oil, supply exceeds demand, and oil prices naturally fall. On the other hand, if the stock market goes up, so will the oil price. In this case, there is a positive correlation between the stock market and oil prices.
Second, the stock market and commodity futures
The stock market is often influenced by speculative factors, which creates another situation, that is, when the stock market falls, investors will withdraw their funds and invest in commodity futures markets, such as crude oil market and gold market. In this case, oil prices and gold prices will rise instead.
Three, the dollar exchange rate and oil prices and gold prices
Money is the measure of commodity value. Commodity value increases, currency depreciates relatively, commodity value decreases, and currency appreciates relatively. As a global currency, the exchange rate of US dollar reflects the value of global commodity trade to some extent. At present, global commodity transactions are mainly denominated in US dollars, which accounts for about 65% of global foreign exchange reserves. The trend of US dollar exchange rate has an important influence on commodity trading market, futures market and the redistribution pattern of economic interests of various countries. Commodities such as gold, crude oil and metals are greatly affected by the fluctuation of the US dollar exchange rate.
(A) the dollar exchange rate and the price of gold
Gold is a currency reserve. Although the dollar actually played the role of gold in the past, gold still has a certain influence on monetary policy and is a means to deal with inflation. It is a substitute for the dollar. The main role of gold in the market is to reserve currency and hedge tools.
The strength of the dollar is an important factor affecting the price of gold. There are three main reasons for this:
First of all, the US dollar is recognized as a hard currency in the world, and the US dollar and gold are international reserve assets. The strength of the dollar weakens the position of gold as a reserve asset and a value-preserving function.
Secondly, the GDP of the United States accounts for about 1/4 of the world GDP, and the total foreign trade ranks first in the world, which has a far-reaching impact on the world economy; The price of gold is obviously inversely proportional to the world economy.
Third, the world gold market is generally priced in dollars. On the one hand, the depreciation of the dollar will inevitably lead to an increase in the price of gold. On the other hand, gold denominated in dollars will be cheaper for holders of other currencies, thus stimulating the demand for gold.
Therefore, the trend of the dollar and gold prices should change in the opposite direction.
(2) US dollar exchange rate and crude oil price
The relationship between crude oil and the dollar is different from that between gold and the dollar. The price of gold is influenced by the exchange rate of the US dollar. Crude oil price and dollar price are interactive. When the price of crude oil rises, the world economy will be affected, including the United States, the world's largest crude oil consumer. Inflationary pressure brought by rising crude oil prices will bring depreciation pressure to the dollar, and the direct consequence of the depreciation of the dollar is that the price of crude oil denominated in dollars will also increase. Of course, on the other hand, falling oil prices are a good signal for the economy. People's confidence in the American economy will push up the exchange rate of the US dollar, which will lead to a further downward adjustment of oil prices. According to experts' estimation, the correlation coefficient between crude oil price and US dollar exchange rate is -0.7. In other words, high oil prices often appear at the same time as a weak dollar. Therefore, the trend of the dollar and the original oil price should be in the opposite direction.
(3) Gold price and crude oil price
Gold is a tool to hedge against inflation. Rising oil prices mean that inflation will follow, and the uncertainty of economic development will increase. At this time, the safe-haven function of gold will be favored by people. There is a positive correlation between gold and crude oil. The rise of crude oil price indicates that the price of gold will also rise, and the fall of crude oil price indicates that the price of gold will also fall. In the medium and long term, the fluctuation trend of gold and crude oil is basically the same, but the amplitude is different. Generally speaking, the price of gold is positively related to the price of crude oil.