For the inflationary pressure in the second half of the year, market institutions have analyzed that the inhibitory effect of pork prices on CPI has quietly turned into a lifting effect. In July, with the arrival of the flood season, the price of fresh vegetables will rebound and pork will rise periodically, so there may be some pressure on food prices to increase. The recent phased decline in commodity prices will alleviate some imported inflationary pressures. It is expected that CPI will maintain a moderate upward trend in the second half of the year.
CPI rose by 2.5% year-on-year, and the increase was enlarged.
In June, the national consumer price rose by 2.5% year-on-year, an increase of 0.4 percentage points over the previous month.
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, said that CPI rose year-on-year in June, mainly driven by higher pork prices, the upward movement of the international crude oil price center and the downward trend of the base in the same period last year, and the overall CPI remained moderate.
The rise in non-food prices is still the main reason for the year-on-year increase in CPI. Dong, senior statistician of the Urban Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that non-food prices rose by 2.5%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points over the previous month, which affected the CPI increase by about 2.0 1 percentage point.
Further, in non-food products, the prices of gasoline and diesel increased by 33.4% and 36.3% respectively, and the price of air tickets increased by 28. 1%, both of which increased. Traffic communication has the greatest impact on CPI year-on-year.
Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, said that due to the overall increase in international oil prices, the price of refined oil products in China was raised twice in late May and mid-June, which pushed the price of CPI motor fuel up by 6.6% month-on-month and 32.8% year-on-year. Energy prices continued to rise, pushing non-food prices up by 0.4% month-on-month.
In terms of food prices, the drag of pork prices on the year-on-year increase of CPI narrowed from 0.34 percentage points in May to 0.08 percentage points in June.
Wen Bin said that since the pork price bottomed out in April, the expectation of market rise has been further strengthened, the phenomenon of pressure on the breeding end has reappeared, and pig futures have hit record highs, which will soon turn into a positive contribution to the year-on-year increase in food prices.
"The demand for some durable consumer goods is still weak, reflecting that residents' income expectations and consumer confidence still need a process." Wen Bin said.
Zheng Houcheng, director of the Securities Research Institute of Ying Da University, said that the average wholesale price of pork in July exceeded 25 yuan/kg, 26 yuan/kg, 27 yuan/kg, 28 yuan/kg and 29 yuan/kg in a short time. It is expected that the CPI of pork in July will increase with a high probability on the basis of June, and the high probability will "turn positive". It is expected that the CPI in July will increase year-on-year on the basis of June.
The year-on-year increase of PPI continued to fall, and the price increase in the middle and lower reaches rebounded.
In June, the resumption of work and production continued to advance, the supply chain of key industrial chains gradually became smooth and stable, and the effect of the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices continued to appear. The ex-factory price of industrial producers turned from rising to flat, and the year-on-year increase continued to fall.
Further, the means of production decreased by 0. 1% and the means of subsistence increased by 0.3%, which means that the price increase in the upstream slowed down and the price increase in the middle and lower reaches rebounded.
Wen Bin said that in June, international commodity prices diverged, and international tensions continued to push up international oil and gas prices. However, the global economic slowdown has led to a decline in metal prices and a rebound in international food prices. The prices of domestic upstream products are similar to the international trend, with oil and gas prices rising slightly and coal prices rising. However, the prices of ferrous metals, non-ferrous metals and building materials fell due to demand shocks, such as automobiles and real estate, which dragged down the prices of means of production.
"Among the products in the middle and lower reaches, the prices of chemical products and textile products rose, pushing up general daily necessities and clothing by 0. 1% and 0.7% respectively. Food prices rose by 0.5% month-on-month, mainly due to the large increase in the price of live pigs, which pushed up the ex-factory price of the meat food processing industry. " Wen Bin said.
Zheng Houcheng said that considering the base utility, the hikes and the new price increase factors, the year-on-year probability of PPI in July was lower than that in June, and the downward adjustment was over 0.30 percentage points.
Inflation will maintain a moderate growth in the second half of the year.
According to estimates, the core CPI excluding food and energy prices rose by 1.0% year-on-year in June, with an increase of 0. 1 percentage point over the previous month.
Wen Bin believes that in the future, China will continue to face the coexistence of structural inflation pressure and external input pressure, and the slow recovery of total social demand will raise the core inflation center. It is predicted that core inflation will gradually move up from the previous period below 1% to the historical average range of 1.2- 1.5%.
Among them, structural inflationary pressure is mainly reflected in food. As pork prices enter the recovery cycle, the suppression of CPI in the past year has quietly turned into a lifting effect. In July, with the arrival of the flood season, the price of fresh vegetables will rebound and pork will rise periodically, so there may be some pressure on food prices to increase. However, recently, the relevant departments reminded enterprises to maintain the normal slaughter rhythm and avoid blind pressure. As the off-season approaches, the momentum of pork price increase will be reduced in the short term, and the performance of food price increase will remain moderate.
Judging from the external input pressure, the international energy price remains high, and the global food crisis triggered by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will also pose a certain threat to China's food security. As the most upstream of inflation, energy and food can not be ignored. But recently, the global commodity market has gradually switched from "inflation trading" mode to "recession trading", and the phased decline of commodity prices will alleviate some imported inflationary pressures.
Wen Bin said that overall, CPI is expected to maintain a moderate increase in the second half of the year. Although the probability of exceeding 3% in individual months is high, the annual average level is still controlled within the policy objectives. At the same time, PPI will continue to decline. Inflation will not put much pressure on monetary policy.
Wang Qing said that the higher pork price in the second half of the year will push up the CPI increase to a certain extent, but it will not change the overall moderate and controllable price situation, and inflation will remain the biggest difference between domestic and foreign economic fundamentals. This also provides space for monetary policy to continue to exert its strength in the direction of steady growth.
Meng Wei, spokesperson of the National Development and Reform Commission, said a few days ago that the production of important livelihood commodities such as grain, oil, meat, eggs, milk, fruits and vegetables in China is stable and the supply is sufficient. Especially with a large number of fresh agricultural products listed this season, the market supply will continue to increase. In addition, the logistics blocking points in various places have been effectively diverted, and the cross-regional transportation capacity has been significantly enhanced, laying a solid foundation for stabilizing consumer prices. Domestic CPI will continue to operate in a reasonable range, and can achieve the expected goal of about 3% for the whole year.