Can Apple's market continue to rise this year?
Entering Malanhong Quality Apple Industrial Park in Xunyi County, Xianyang City, Shaanxi Province, merchants from all over the country are in an endless stream. "Apple has always been a high quality and good price. Good quality will be robbed. The price of our striped first-class and second-class fruits above 80# can be sold to a catty in 3.5 yuan, and a catty in 3.3 yuan at most in other places. " The relevant person in charge of the park told the reporter, "This year is a bumper harvest, and the output has not decreased much, but the hail weather in the Mid-Autumn Festival has a slight impact, which has an impact on apple quality by about 10%."
The reporter learned that Xunyi Malanhong is a geographical indication agricultural product with a planting area of nearly 2 million mu. It is green, colorful, crisp, sweet and juicy, and has a strong flavor, which belongs to the high-grade goods in apples. "We have our own brand and sales channels, and there are many high-quality customers, and we generally don't include coins. Most of them go to e-commerce and wholesale markets, and the prices are relatively good and the goods are not stable. Although the price has increased slightly recently, the volume of goods has not increased much. " The relevant person in charge of the park said.
202 1 reasons for the price increase of apples: speculation, the decline of excellent fruit rate and the impact of rising vegetable prices.
With the implementation of industrial strategic layout in recent years, Gansu, Sichuan Daliangshan and other places began to plant apples, and the apple industry became the leading industry for local farmers to get rich. With the increase of apple producing areas, despite the natural disasters in the northern region, China can still maintain an adequate supply.
"The high-yield environment is not conducive to the continuous rise in prices. Although the price of fruit is hyped up at this stage, it is mainly due to the end of watermelon season, sugar oranges are not produced in large quantities, and a large number of fruits have not been listed in a short time. Coupled with climatic factors such as hail and flood, fruit prices will rise strongly in the near future, but I am not optimistic about sustainability. " An Jikun, a large fruit producer in Beijing Xinfadi Wholesale Market who has been engaged in fruit for many years, told reporters, "The fruit market is very special and the varieties are highly complementary. Last winter, our apple stand started selling 3.7 yuan/Jin at six o'clock in the morning, and the questioner turned his head and left. By 9 o'clock in the morning, the price had been put in 2.9 yuan/Jin, and only a little deal was made, because there were more than 300 cars of sugar oranges on the market that day, and the price was a few cents a Jin. A few dollars of fruit can't move the goods at all, which directly impacts the entire fruit market. "
According to the analysis report of relevant institutions, the late spring cold did not happen in April this year, and the growth of apples was more stable than in previous years; By the Mid-Autumn Festival, Shanxi, Shaanxi, Gansu and other places suddenly encountered frost and hail, and natural disasters caused certain damage to the growth of apples. The market generally believes that the excellent fruit rate has declined, and the overall supply of fruit is tight in a short time. At the same time, at this stage, driven by the price increase of vegetables and other factors, * * * has led to the recent rapid increase in apple prices.
"At this stage, it is mainly the rate of fried excellent fruit. At present, I think the hype is overdone. In addition to the influence of holiday factors such as Christmas Eve, the demand for apples at the retail end will increase substantially, and the overall supply and demand link has not changed fundamentally. Apple prices will eventually return to rationality. " Yang Long, general manager of Puze Supply Chain Management Co., Ltd. introduced.
Apple prices are rising.
After the first frost, the price of apples, which should have fallen, rose.
The price of apples in Shandong, the main producing area, has increased greatly. It is currently the peak season for Apple's acquisition. However, rainy weather and low temperature have affected the supply this year. The output of apples in Shandong has been reduced to some extent. According to the survey data, in 20021-2022, the output of apples in Shandong was 9,588,300 tons, which was about 7.5% lower than last year. The supply of high-quality apples in Shaanxi and other major western producing areas has basically ended, and the control has been strengthened due to the COVID-19 epidemic. Some apple buyers are looking for customers in the east, which leads to an increase in businessmen in the east. But at present, there are very few apples with good quality, and the price has gone up immediately.
Recently, the total cargo of 80# in Shandong area and Qixia area 1.7-2.3 yuan/kg, the first and second grade 2.5-2.8 yuan/kg, and the stripe 3-3.5 yuan/kg; Origin No.75 in Yiyuan area 1.4- 1.5 yuan/kg, good goods 1.7- 1.8 yuan/kg.
Shaanxi production area, the current market is bullish, the price of 70# is 2.8-3.2 yuan/kg, and the unified goods are 2-2.4 yuan/kg; In Yan 'an area, the starting price of 70# is 2.5-3 yuan/kg. At present, the acquisition progress in Shaanxi has reached 50%, and the progress is relatively slow. Merchants are actively purchasing.
Gansu production area, 80# production area is generally 3-3.5 yuan/kg, merchants are actively purchasing, and the price of high-quality fruit is higher. The average price of Qingyang is 2.35 yuan/kg, mainly due to the weather. The overall quality of fruits is not good and the sales volume is not good.
Recently, apple producing areas have high quality and high price, and good fruits have risen strongly, but inferior fruits still cannot rise. The purchase price of the second fruit is low, generally at 1.2- 1.7 yuan/kg, and the excellent fruit gradually rises to about 2.5-3.5 yuan/kg.
1October 26th 10, Apple futures price stood at the 8500 yuan/ton mark, setting a new high in a year. This also means that the capital market is more optimistic about the future rise of Apple's spot price.
Is it harder to grow apples every year? Suggestions on Apple's Future Development
As we all know, Apple's business is getting harder every year. It is becoming more and more difficult to sell goods in the market, and vendors' stalls in the city are also banned by urban management. The core reason is the imbalance between supply and demand. Let's get to the bottom of it: what went wrong?
First, governments at all levels are desperately expanding the planting area of political achievements.
It took us less than ten years to grow apples in Shandong on a large scale to the whole north, from the advantageous producing areas of Qixia Penglai to Fuji apples in Shanxi and Shaanxi, which cost less than one yuan.
The local government has never considered how to sell it, but only said that it visited xx county and wrote apple planting into the county's 10 development plan. Therefore, apples are being planted from the northeast to Aksu and from Yunnan to Ningxia.
Second, the psychology of fruit farmers.
A dollar a piece is better than nothing. Villagers everywhere can be seen digging trees every year. But after all, a few people will do this. The older generation of farmers (40-70 years old) in China have basically experienced the material poverty in the 1960s. For them, this is not a cost-effective question. It seems that they can earn another dollar. Instead of calculating the labor cost of input and output. The money they get in ideology is their own. Fruit farmers have never calculated their wages!
Talk about my views on whether and how Apple can develop. Everything has a high bottom. High can't be high forever. If you reach a certain level, you have to live a low profile. If it reaches a certain level, you have to make a big change, that is, transformation.
First of all, we should understand that the main reason why apples are worthless is the large area, single variety and late maturity of Fuji. Local governments have not adjusted their industries according to local conditions, blindly developed, and completely ignored sales.
From farmers to fruit farmers, more than 90% of fruit farmers can't guarantee food and clothing. They don't grow grain, but all kinds of apples. Bread is the staff of life. People can't live without bread and rice, and the rest can leave. Speaking of which, I know the direction is wrong and my efforts are in vain.
When a person's main sales expense is food, it does not mean that people can live without apples, and it is absolutely impossible without steamed bread. Therefore, nowadays, apples are not only worthless, but also cause most fruit farmers to support their families and even fail to open them. People over 50 go out to work.
The above is the main reason why I said that apples are worthless and difficult to sell, but then again, a few fruit farmers have not sold money on apples like I said in recent years.
The reason is:
1, insist on fine management and seek benefits from quality;
2, understand technology, rely on their own homes, not looking for people;
3. By selling fruits online, these people must be a minority. What I want to share next is whether and how Apple will develop in the future. The development of late-maturing Fuji into a eugenic area must be based on your own family conditions. One is to pay attention to the area, and the other is to pay attention to the variety selection, not to reflect the film, saving labor and effort.
Here, I don't want to remind you that at present, mechanized work can only be sprayed in orchards, and most of the work has to rely on manpower, even if you are a eugenic fruit area with large altitude difference and high temperature. It is suggested to develop apples on the premise of ensuring good groups.
Here, special emphasis is placed on the closed garden planning and thinning of eugenic fruit areas this winter. Or change a new variety once, and never be soft. In the future, the fruit area will develop in an all-round way, and apples will develop early. Wheat and corn must be the main crops in hilly areas. To carry out mechanized operations, choose small plots that are neither frozen nor light to develop small miscellaneous fruits.
Here, I especially remind those who have the conditions to go ahead. For example, which variety to choose, it must be few but fine. One is to build boron, and the other is to develop flexibly according to local conditions. Because most rural people are at home now, we must choose varieties that are well managed, labor-saving and suitable for the local area.
Finally, whether you are a eugenic fruit area or a fruit area, seize the critical period of July to improve the commodity rate of apples. According to the tree potential, fruit quantity and fruit size, not only high potassium should be supplemented, but also mineral crystals must be added. Remember that twice is better than once.