1. Macroscopically, in May, the national high-level officials paid close attention to the excessive rise of commodity prices, and the National People's Congress named "commodity prices" several times. In May, the purchasing manager PMI of China manufacturing industry was 5 1.0, and the manufacturing industry maintained steady expansion. The COVID-19 epidemic has repeatedly appeared in some foreign regions, and the market is worried that the recovery of demand will be hindered. The US employment data exceeded expectations, and the market was worried that the Fed would tighten monetary policy ahead of schedule. Commodities fluctuate greatly and the risks increase.
2. The overall performance of the pulp futures contract is capital outflow in May, and the current position has returned to the level of 65,438+at the end of February last year. Technical analysis, moving average adhesion, short-term shock. The intertemporal spreads of SP2 109 and SP2 106 gradually converged and closed at-12 on June 4th, making up for the decline in recent months. With the arrival of the off-season demand, the inventory of finished products in downstream paper products enterprises has increased significantly, and traders have hoarded too much goods in the early stage, which has led to high inventory in the near future and increased shipping pressure. The price of cultural paper continues to decline, the bidding price for publishing teaching materials has dropped significantly, and the downstream procurement is not active, so it is difficult for the downstream demand to strengthen in the near future.
3. However, in June, the price of pulp in the United States and Europe exceeded that in China, and the price of pulp was supported by cost. Strategically, we suggest interval trading, the interval is 5900-6700, and the operation is high and low. Views are for reference.
Pulp futures market quotation
1.5 months, the pulp futures market fell sharply, with a decrease of 9.87%. At the end of the month, the price of pulp futures SP2 109 is 6280, the highest is 7 120, and the lowest is 5932. From the technical analysis, at present, the weekly moving average structure is arranged in a short position, and the trend is downward. In May, the contracted position of pulp decreased from 346,000 lots last month to 275,000 lots. In May, there was a large outflow of funds from the main pulp contract. The contract turnover of pulp decreased from12.56 million hands to10.02 million hands.
In February and May, the spot price of domestic pulp rose sharply. As of June 4th, in Shandong, the price of Silver Star was 6280 yuan/ton, down 12.8% from the previous month and up 42.2% from the same period last year. Klip quoted 6350 yuan/ton, down 12.4% from the previous month and up 39. 1% from the same period last year. The price of Wuzhen was 6 150 yuan/ton, down 10.9% month-on-month and up 39.3% year-on-year. The basis of the contract fell back to 32. Futures prices led the decline, spot prices fell rapidly, and spot spreads converged.
3. At the beginning of May, the commodity market strengthened. The daily limit of black series and non-ferrous metals has driven the commodity market to rise strongly. In addition, in May, the external quotation of Silver Star Soft Needle Pulp was raised by USD 50/ton, and the contract of Pulp 2 109 hit 7 120 yuan/ton.
In the middle and late May, the three major domestic exchanges joined hands to cool down. The National People's Congress often mentions that commodity prices have risen too fast, and the CPI data in the United States has aggravated investors' expectations of inflation. US stocks plunged, the macro atmosphere turned empty, and systemic risks broke out. Black continued to fall, followed by pulp futures. Downstream enters the off-season, leading paper enterprises show signs of downward adjustment, and the market game intensifies. Most cultural paper production enterprises take measures to reduce production and protect prices, and paper mills and traders hold high stocks of finished products. Domestic ports are in a state of accumulation. In late May, the total stock of pulp in Qingdao Port and Changshu Port was 1, 746,5438+0,000 tons, an increase of 1 0,006 tons from the previous month. At the end of the month, the pulp contract of 2 109 fell below 6000 yuan/ton.
5. On the import side, the price of imported wood pulp from Arauco6 in Chile remained unchanged in May, with the softwood pulp silver star at 980 USD/ton, hardwood pulp star at 800 USD/ton and Venus at 850 USD/ton. In June, the price of imported wood pulp in Ilim, Russia was the same as that in May, with softwood pulp of 65,438+0,000 USD/ton, hardwood pulp of 800 USD/ton and natural pulp of 650 USD/ton. In terms of inventory, as of June 4th, the pulp inventory in the previous period increased by 58,092 to 176 and 45 1 ton compared with the previous month.