Know-how, long and short, taboo: the favorable data of domestic soybeans is artificially high, and the auction of state reserves is once again cold. The bean market is waiting for guidance, and the market supply is loose. The price of finished cotton is gradually falling. When the price is not adjusted, it is questioned. The steel price of 5.8 million tons of corn targeted by the State Reserve continued to fall. Limited space [domestic futures market] [position analysis system] 1. Current situation and management difficulties faced by early indica rice trading enterprises 1. The business model of early indica rice trading enterprises With the advancement of China's grain circulation system reform and the complete liberalization of grain purchase market, the role of early indica rice trading enterprises in the whole rice industry has become increasingly prominent and has become a new force in early indica rice business activities. They connect the market and farmers at the same time, and are important participants in grain purchase, storage and trade processing. The composition of early indica rice trading enterprises has also changed from a single state-owned and state-controlled grain enterprise to a multi-type coexistence development pattern dominated by the state, supplemented by the private sector and actively participated by individuals. The general business model of early indica rice trading enterprises is: spot market (procurement)-trading enterprises (warehousing)-spot processing enterprises or consumers (sales). 2. Risks and actual demand faced by early indica rice trading enterprises As an important grain commodity, early indica rice is closely related to national food security and farmers' interests. Therefore, the price of early indica rice is not only affected by the supply and demand of its own commodities, but also greatly restricted by the relevant national grain policies. As a result, the early indica rice acquisition market has appeared "national lowest price acquisition", national reserve auction and "shun price sales" In the interaction between price elasticity and policy space, the profit space earned by early indica rice trading enterprises is relatively limited, but the risk of market fluctuation is more obvious. Acquisition link: In 2004, the country began to implement the policy of minimum purchase price of rice, and at the same time, the grain acquisition market was fully liberalized, the acquisition subjects were diversified, and the competition in the early indica rice acquisition market was intensified, showing a diversified acquisition competition situation of grain storage, local reserves, processing enterprises and individual grain merchants, and some areas were snapped up for grain sources. In this link, if the supply is tight and the acquisition time is short, traders will face the risk of insufficient acquisition and increased acquisition cost. Storage link: the storage process of rice requires high warehouse conditions (such as large storage capacity, good ventilation and convenient transportation). ), and long-term storage will also cause some loss and mildew, so the storage link not only takes up a lot of money, but also has potential additional losses. Sales link: If the demand is weak or the national reserve auctions and rotates a lot, the early indica rice purchased at a high price will face the risk of falling prices and poor sales. Trade opportunities: In normal years, due to the short acquisition cycle of early indica rice, the trade cycle is correspondingly short (3-5 months), and most traders lack business opportunities at other times, and a large amount of funds are idle. Therefore, it is necessary to use the futures market for forward trading and extend the trading cycle. Second, the case analysis of early indica rice trading enterprises using futures management risks 1. Using the price discovery function of early indica rice futures to make trading plans. Because futures prices comprehensively reflect market expectations, the prices formed in the futures market are authoritative and forward-looking. Using the trend of futures prices can guide the trading plan and arrange the corresponding funds. If the futures price of early indica rice shows an upward trend, traders can buy and sell normally, and the risk of falling intermediate prices is small. Therefore, it is necessary to raise purchasing funds as soon as possible, increase purchasing volume and actively contact buyers. Similarly, if the futures price is weak or even falling, traders need to sign a good supply contract with the buyer as far as possible, agree on a relatively favorable sales price, and purchase according to the contract quantity in the spot purchase process to reduce the risk of price decline caused by large purchases. 2. Realize "virtual procurement" when the purchase volume is difficult to increase. As mentioned above, due to the increase of buyers in the market and fierce competition, the supply of rice is tight in some years, which leads to a sharp increase in the purchase price in the short term. At the same time, it is difficult for traders to purchase enough goods. At this time, the rational use of the futures market for buying hedging can play a role of "getting twice the result with half the effort". For example, in May, an early indica rice trading enterprise signed a contract with a rice processing factory in the south, and supplied it with 1950 yuan/ton in September. After signing the contract, the trading enterprise comprehensively analyzes the spot market situation and the futures price trend, and judges that the price of early indica rice may rise sharply after listing in July of that year. If it is supplied at 1950 yuan/ton, after deducting the acquisition cost and related expenses, the profit will be limited or even lost. Therefore, the general manager of the enterprise made a decision to buy 1 1,000 tons of early indica rice at the price of 2030 yuan/ton in the September contract. At this time, the spot price was 1 ton and 840 yuan/ton. In August, a large number of early indica rice were listed, and the supply was tight. Fierce procurement competition leads to the spot procurement cost reaching 0.97 yuan/kg, equivalent to 1.94 yuan/ton. At this time, the enterprise purchases at an average price of 0.97 yuan/kg in the spot market to meet the supply to the rice processing plant, and at the same time sells and closes the position at an average price of 265,438 yuan/ton in the futures contract. The effect of hedging is as follows: This case shows that traders can effectively lock in the purchase cost, meet the demand of purchase and sale contracts and achieve ideal trade profits by buying hedging investment strategies when the expected price rises. 3. Manage inventory and improve capital efficiency by selling hedging when prices tend to fall. For many large-scale commercial grain buying and selling enterprises, if the inventory is too high, on the one hand, it needs to pay high storage costs, on the other hand, it will occupy a lot of funds and affect the return on investment of enterprises. Therefore, the combination of appropriate selling hedging and spot delivery can effectively solve this problem. A grain purchasing and selling enterprise in an early indica rice producing county signed a sales contract with a large rice flour mill in South China, and will supply 20,000 tons at the price of 1.950 yuan/ton in March next year. The enterprise predicts that the spot price will be stable or there is a risk of falling in the future, and decides to preserve the inventory value. Sell 20,000 tons of September contract at the price of 2050 yuan/ton for spot delivery. In the future, there are two ways to replenish the spot stipulated in the contract: one is to buy the spot at the spot price before the contract is fulfilled in March next year, and the other is to buy and deliver it to the rice noodle factory when the contract is fulfilled in March next year and the price is stable or falling. Under the above circumstances, the spot price dropped slightly. We kept the inventory of the contract in March next year, and the spot saving cost = 65438+ 10,000 yuan ×1+200,000 yuan ×1= 300,000 yuan; Storage saving cost = 1.35 million yuan × 0.2× 1.65 million yuan × 0.2×1= 600,000 yuan (excluding futures delivery cost, the storage cost will be saved after futures delivery, calculated by 0.2 yuan/ton/day per day). Fund interest =2050 yuan/ton ×2×4.86%× 150/365 (calculated at the half-year loan interest rate of 4.86%, the number of days saved is 150 days) = 8 18900 yuan. The total cost and expenses saved in the whole process are 1, 7 1.89 million yuan, which is equivalent to the cost saving of 85.95 yuan/ton, with a relative value of 2,000 yuan/ton and a return of 4.3%. The second way is to sell short-term delivery and buy long-term delivery. Generally, it will be adopted when the short-term price is higher than the long-term price and the market rises steadily. Otherwise, it is the most ideal choice to replenish goods through spot. 4. Poor spot sales, avoiding downside risks by selling hedging. The spot purchase cost of a buying and selling enterprise is 1.850 yuan/ton of early indica rice 1.000 ton, but the market is not good, so the sales contract cannot be signed. Because of the fear of falling market price, the hedging 65438 was sold on the 1 654,38+0 contract at the price of 2050 yuan/ton. 10, the spot price fell to 1820 yuan/ton, and the futures price also fell to 2,000 yuan/ton. Enterprises sell spot and buy futures to close positions.