Judging from the production situation over the years, in the international corn market, the output of the United States accounts for more than 40%, that of China accounts for nearly 20%, and that of South America accounts for about 10%, which is the main corn producing area in the world, and its output and supply have great influence on the international market, especially the corn output of the United States has become the most important factor affecting the international supply. The output of other countries and regions accounts for a low proportion and has little impact on the international market.

2. Demand for corn

The United States and China are both major producers and consumers of corn, and the countries that consume more corn are the European Union, Japan, Brazil, Mexico and other countries. The changes in consumer demand in these countries have a great impact on corn prices, especially the rapid development of corn deep processing industry in major consumer countries, which has greatly promoted the increase in consumer demand for corn.

From the domestic situation, corn consumption mainly comes from rations, feed and industrial processing. Among them, the overall consumption of rations has not changed much, and the impact on the market is relatively small; Feed corn accounts for the highest proportion, reaching more than 70%, and the change of feed corn demand has a great impact on the market; Although the proportion of corn used in industrial processing is only about 14%, it has developed rapidly in recent years, with an average annual consumption of more than 2 million tons, and its impact on the market is also very obvious.

3. Corn import and export

The import and export of corn has a great influence on the market. Corn imports will increase the total domestic supply, while corn exports will increase the total demand. As far as the international market is concerned, we should pay close attention to the corn imports of the world's major corn exporting countries such as the United States, China and Argentina, as well as Japan, South Korea and Southeast Asia. Changes in corn production and consumption in these countries have a direct impact on international corn import and export trade. For the domestic market, we should focus on the domestic export policy, which has a more obvious pulling effect on the domestic corn market.

4. Corn raw materials

In a certain period of time, the inventory level of a commodity directly reflects the change of the relationship between supply and demand of the commodity, which is the internal reflection of the supply and demand pattern of the commodity. Therefore, studying the change of corn inventory is helpful to understand the running trend of corn price. Generally speaking, when the inventory level increases, the supply is loose; When the inventory level drops, the supply will be tight. There is often a negative correlation between carry-over inventory level and corn price.

5. Expected annualized expected return of corn cost.

The expected annualized income of corn cost is one of the main factors that affect farmers' enthusiasm for planting. The cost of corn has a certain influence on the market price. If the market price of food is too low, farmers will be reluctant to sell it. The expected annualized expected income will affect farmers' corn planting arrangements for the next year. If the expected annualized income increases, farmers may increase the planting area, and vice versa.

6. Price relationship with other bulk agricultural products

The price relationship between corn and other bulk agricultural products will affect the relationship between supply and demand of corn, and then affect the production and sales of corn, leading to changes in the future price trend of corn. Therefore, it is very important to study this price relationship, among which the planting price relationship between corn and soybean and the consumption price relationship between corn and wheat are the most important.

7. Financial and monetary factors

Expected annualized interest rate changes and exchange rate fluctuations have become common phenomena in the economic life of various countries, and the changes of these factors often cause fluctuations in commodity futures markets. Generally speaking, when the currency depreciates, the price of corn futures will rise; When the currency appreciates, the futures price will fall. Therefore, the expected annualized interest rate and exchange rate of money are another important factor besides supply, demand and economic cycle.

8. Economic cycle

The world economy is constantly developing in the cyclical alternation of prosperity and recession. Economic cycle is an inevitable economic fluctuation in modern economic society and one of the basic characteristics of modern economy. In the economic cycle, fluctuations in economic activities occur in almost all economic sectors. Therefore, the economic cycle is the fluctuation of the whole economy rather than the fluctuation of the local economy. The basic index to measure the overall economic situation is national income, and the characteristic of economic cycle is the fluctuation of national income, which leads to the fluctuation of output, employment, price level and expected annualized interest rate. Economic cycle appears repeatedly in economic operation, and generally consists of four stages: recovery, prosperity, recession and depression. Affected by this, corn prices will also fluctuate. From a macro perspective, the economic cycle is one of the most important factors.

9. Storage and transportation costs

Changes in crude oil, ocean transportation rates, transportation tension and other factors affecting transportation costs.