First, the first factor to raise oil prices is the restructuring of the industrial chain.
Because the reorganization of industrial chain will produce a lot of migration costs and waste, wool will be reflected in the price sooner or later. Another important influence of industrial chain reorganization is that many industrial chains have moved to Southeast Asia, and some will move back to the West. The cost of moving back to the west will be higher, but it will also promote employment and consumption, thus increasing crude oil consumption.
That is to say, due to certain inertia, the crude oil consumption of the eastern powers may not decrease (or may not decrease a lot), but the crude oil consumption in Southeast Asia and the West is increasing. This is the rise in oil prices caused by the restructuring of the industrial chain.
Secondly, the plague in COVID-19 caused a large amount of water release in various countries.
In the past decade, the M2 of the United States has more than doubled, from $8.5 trillion to more than $20 trillion. At the time of writing this article, the latest figures are 202 1, 65438+February, and M2 in the United States is 2 1.638 trillion US dollars.
M2 has more than doubled, should oil prices at least double? 20 1 1, the oil price is about 90 dollars. In May 2008, it set a record of $0/47 per barrel. Since 2020, the growth rate of M2 in the United States has continued to increase. 202 1, 1 1, M2 increased 13.07%. Currency has pushed up the price of all commodities, including oil. Some people say that raising interest rates will have negative effects. Yes, we will analyze raising interest rates later.
Third, the United States and Russia collude.
Historically, the rise and fall of oil prices is a seesaw effect for China and Russia. In other words, what is good for China (falling oil prices) is not good for Russia; What is good for Russia is bad for China. In the final analysis, the biggest factor affecting oil prices is the United States. Although the United States should respect the laws of the market to a great extent, it can also influence the market. For the United States, Russia is no longer the biggest rival or enemy. Then, based on the "seesaw effect", the United States has the desire to raise oil prices. Of course, Russia has always had it. So this objectively formed a collusion between the United States and Russia. Since Biden took office, he has always emphasized "environmental protection" and has been suppressing shale oil production in his country. Oil prices rose strongly last year, but US shale oil production hardly increased.
Fourth, countries in the Middle East.
The population of Arab and Muslim countries in the Middle East has been soaring. In order to calm the gap between the rich and the poor at home, Middle Eastern countries have to spend more on people's livelihood, which also requires them to raise oil prices.
Five, environmental protection, new energy.
Environmental protection has suppressed oil supply, such as shale oil in the United States. Vigorously developing new energy sources in various countries will also reduce investment in traditional energy sources, objectively causing long-term supply shortages, thus raising oil prices. Moreover, vigorously developing new energy also requires the price of traditional energy to be higher, otherwise what economic advantages does new energy have?
Sixth, the impact of the Fed's interest rate hike.
This year (2022), the Fed may raise interest rates four or five times. Of course, how many times and how much will be added depends on the employment and inflation data in the United States, and we don't know yet. However, because the US economy was good last year (GDP increased by 5.7%, the highest growth rate since 1984) and the unemployment rate dropped, it is necessary to raise interest rates sooner or later. According to historical experience, the previous interest rate hikes cannot completely curb inflation, because inflation cannot be curbed at once. So oil prices will continue to rise. In other words, there is still a high probability that oil prices will rise this year (2022).