The purpose of speculators joining futures trading is to take advantage of the fluctuation of futures prices to make profits. So when to buy and sell mainly depends on his judgment on the trend of futures prices, that is, price expectations. He buys when the expected price rises, sells when the expected price falls, and waits and sees when the expected price consolidates. Speculators' price expectations are not only influenced by all kinds of information about futures price changes (basic factor analysis), but also by their judgments on current and historical price trends (technical analysis). Therefore, stimulated by favorable factors, people expect prices to rise and buy in succession, thus pushing prices up; The trend information of price increase further strengthens people's expectation of price increase, and people buy further, thus pushing the price up further. On the contrary, when prices fall, people expect prices to fall further and sell them in succession, thus pushing prices down further. It can be seen that price expectation and speculative psychology in futures trading have a strong role in fueling and aggravating futures price fluctuations.

1980 The unprecedented storm in the gold market clearly reflects the influence of speculative psychology and price expectations on futures prices. The gold price in1979165438+10 was only about $400 per ounce, and by 1980 65438+ 10/it had soared to the historical peak of $838. There are many reasons for the surge: economically, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries announced a sharp increase in oil prices, and politically, the former Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan; Iran holds American hostages; The relationship between the United States and Iran deteriorated, and the United States frozen Iraq's assets in the United States. The speculative psychology caused by some big gold merchants' reckless driving up the price of gold is an important reason for the skyrocketing price of gold. When the price of gold reached its peak, it was rumored that the US government would auction a large amount of deposits in June 5438+10, which immediately reversed the speculators' psychology and rushed to sell gold futures. 65438+1On October 22nd, the price of gold fell 103 USD, and fell to 460 USD in March. In addition to economic and political factors, speculative psychological factors have played a huge role in the ups and downs of gold prices. In May, the turmoil in the gold market basically subsided, people's hearts turned weak and the price of gold was weak. Although there are some small factors that stimulate the rise of gold prices, they still fail to change people's psychological expectations and promote the recovery of gold prices. Therefore, when forecasting the price trend, we must analyze the psychological expectations of most traders in combination with various factors. The above example has listed some main factors that affect futures prices, and the actual factors are much more complicated. In order to better predict the trend of futures prices and grasp the favorable trading opportunity, futures traders must pay attention to collecting accurate and detailed information about related factors in a timely and extensive manner; Comprehensive analysis of its possible impact, and pay attention to the comprehensive use of quantitative analysis tools and technical analysis methods.