The international oil price is lowered, and the domestic oil price may be greatly raised.
As of press time, the futures price of light crude oil for March delivery in the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at $79.35 per barrel, down 2.049% from the previous day.
London Brent crude oil futures for March delivery closed at $ 86. 14 per barrel, down 1.306% from the previous day.
Although the international crude oil price has fallen sharply, the agency predicts that the domestic refined oil price will increase by 280 yuan/ton on February 3rd, which is equivalent to an increase of 0.2 1-0.25 yuan per liter of gasoline and diesel.
So what caused the international oil price to fall while the domestic oil price rose sharply? Although the price of refined oil in China has risen and fallen with the change of international oil price, according to the average fluctuation range of international crude oil price in ten working days, the international oil price has been lowered recently. However, during the 18 working days from 65438+/kloc-0 to February 3, global crude oil investors expected that China's economy would resume production after the Spring Festival, which increased the demand for oil and fuel oil. At the same time, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
At present, the domestic price of No.92 gasoline is around 7.6 yuan, and will rise to around 7.8 yuan after the increase on February 3rd.
The domestic price of No.95 gasoline is around 8. 1 yuan, and will rise to around 8.3 yuan after the upward adjustment on February 3rd.
The price of pigs will be lowered, or it will fall deeply.
After the Spring Festival, the price of live pigs continued to fall. On June 29th, 65438, the price of live pigs was still falling, and only Zhejiang, Hainan and Chongqing remained stable.
After the downward adjustment in the last two days, pig prices in Southwest China have reached 6.7-8 yuan, 7-7.5 yuan in Northeast China, 7.2-8 yuan in North China, 7.4-8.6 yuan in South China, 7.4-7.9 yuan in Central China and 7.5-8.5 yuan in East China.
Although the recent downward adjustment of pig prices has the influence of low pork consumption after the holiday, some farmers "raise pigs for the New Year" and the supply of pigs after the holiday is guaranteed, but it is more the influence of strong price reduction by slaughter enterprises.
After a Spring Festival holiday, the inventory of slaughter enterprises and pork splitters decreased obviously, and it is urgent to replenish the inventory after the holiday. Slaughtering enterprises can not only stimulate the breeding end to speed up the sale of pigs, but also reduce their own pig slaughter costs.
In the future, the price of live pigs is likely to fall deeply, and the logic is as follows:
1, the state of low pork consumption is difficult to change in a short time. Although it will be at the peak of pork consumption before the fifteenth day of the first month, residents' consumption is mainly bacon and frozen meat prepared before the Spring Festival, and their enthusiasm for buying fresh meat is not high.
2. Before the holiday, the price of live pigs fell below the cost line, and the breeding end suffered serious losses. In order to stop loss, some farmers choose to "raise pigs for the New Year", and the supply of pigs will be guaranteed after the year.
3. Near the end of the month, collectivized pig farms dare not speed up the slaughter to complete the monthly slaughter task.
The price of sheep can't afford to fall.
65438129 October, the price of sheep in Tangxian County, Hebei Province and Bird's Nest, Shandong Province, two major sheep raising bases in China, was still falling. The latest quotation in Tangxian County, Hebei Province is: small-tailed Han sheep kebab 125- 135 kg, 13.4- 1 yuan/kg. 14. 1- 13.3 yuan/kg, Xinmin Yang Gong125-140kg, 14.3- 13.4 yuan/kg.
The latest quotation of Shandong bird's nest is:120-130kg of small-tailed Han mutton kebab, 13.5- 13.3 yuan/kg,125-130kg of fine-wool mutton kebab,/kloc-.
In recent years, the domestic sheep price has been unsatisfactory, not only because of the ideal price in the early stage, the substantial increase in the number of sheep raised and the overcapacity of live sheep, but also because the epidemic situation has affected the consumption demand of terminal mutton.
Before the festival, the peak of mutton consumption caught up with the optimization of epidemic prevention and control measures. The catering industry was further hit, and the overall price of mutton was high, while the low price of pork was seized by some consumer markets, resulting in a "decline" in the market price of sheep.
After the Spring Festival, mutton consumption is at a low point. The demand for mutton before the holiday was low, and a large part of the supply was accumulated after the holiday.
There may also be a wave of "upsurge" in eliminating ewes and clearing the hurdles to give up the breeding end sheep industry. Superimposed pig prices fall, and sheep prices are hard to see rising in a short time.
The price of wheat is difficult to rise, but it can run at a high level.
Due to the weakening of the driving role of festivals in recent years, the terminal purchase and sale are not smooth before the Spring Festival, and the flour stocks of flour enterprises are large, and the price of wheat is limited by consumption.
After the holiday, flour milling enterprises started work one after another, but most of them mainly consumed inventory, and their enthusiasm for purchasing wheat was average.
On the supply side, affected by the price drop years ago, there is more surplus grain at the grass-roots level, the circulating grain source is guaranteed, the policy wheat is continuously put in, and the overall market supply is loose, so it is difficult for the wheat price to rise in the short term.
However, the price of wheat will not fall sharply, and it is expected to maintain a sustained high operation.
1. With the stability of the epidemic and the recovery of catering and tourism, the demand for flour will gradually pick up.
2. The surplus grain at the grass-roots level will be gradually consumed, and the long-term supply will be tightened.
3. The demand for flour for deep processing will also increase.