Part? 1:current quantity distribution of es6
At present, Weilai's mass base is mainly based on the subsequent upgrade plan, that is, just wait for the subsequent upgrade plan 100kWh, in NIO? The most important thing of the day is to explain the subsequent iteration plan. With the support of the power exchange mode, users of 70kWh can switch to the battery pack of 100kWh as long as they pay the monthly usage fee of 1280 yuan as needed, and users who order the original version before the end of March this year can enjoy a 60% discount (one-time upgrade fee of 34,800 yuan). Now, users who use 70kWh upgrade 100kWh, and the cost is 58,000 yuan. The most important function here is expected that this 100kWh battery pack will be officially provided in the fourth quarter of 2020.
(Note: The price here has been calculated. )
Table 1? Weilai's price distribution
As shown in the figure below, that is, 100kWh as futures, is it to cope with Tesla mode? 3 and the subsequent model? The challenge of y.
Figure 1? The price of ES6 and ES8
Judging from the current output distribution, as shown in the figure below, it basically conforms to this guide. At present, consumers completely regard the 70kWh version with a cruising range of about 400 kilometers as a transition, and focus on the 100kWh version that will be listed at the end of the year. However, if this battery is delayed, it will be more difficult. According to the schedule, the model with the same price as ES6? Y, the estimated price ratio of the subsidized long-distance version is Model? 3 is higher, but tens of thousands of yuan lower than ES6.
Figure 2? Yield distribution of ES6
Part? 2: 100 kwh of electricity?
The 8 1 1 battery used in the 84kWh version is completely compatible with the original battery system, and the production line remains unchanged. Use a module with similar size and connection mode, but the battery capacity is upgraded from the original 100Ah (this is the data of 1C, 1/3C is 102Ah) to17ah (/kloc-0). The battery cell energy density has been upgraded from 25438+020 ah, so according to the convention of 1C, the rated energy of 84kWh battery is only 8 1. 1kWh.
If you want to upgrade further, you need to break the module design and adopt CTP design. One idea is to upgrade from the current 2P96S to 2P 1 14S, which is equivalent to adding 36 batteries, which is equivalent to upgrading the voltage from 350V to 4 10V and the energy from 1C to 96kWh( 1/3C? 100kWh). According to this design, the battery tray also needs to be redesigned to leave more space for inserting batteries. Of course, it is not excluded to further increase the battery cells and capacity, so that the number of added batteries can be reduced and 2P 108S can be achieved. There is a balance here.
Figure 3? Willard battery system
Personally, I think it's a bit too risky for Weilai to launch this 100kWh battery. It's a bit inappropriate to scrap the 84kWh battery directly and put all the expectations of consumers on the 100kWh scheme in Q4, 2020, because the use frequency and development necessity of the 84kWh battery are not worth the loss, and the basic use ratio is in a very low range.
Summary:
Personally, I think Weilai chose the leap-forward iterative method this time, which improved the expectation of users and delayed everything until 100kWh battery came out to deal with the 78kWh model. Y, even later upgraded to 100kWh model? Y, then we need to compete for the efficiency of the drive system. This problem has never been solved, but it is not easy to fight on your own merits.
Author's brief introduction: Zhu Yulong, senior engineer of three electric systems and automotive electronics for electric vehicles, is the author of Hardware Design of Automotive Electronics.
Figure | Zhu Yulong? Network and related screenshots
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.