On August 3, both oil fell first and then rose, and WTI crude oil once fell below the $40 mark in Asia and Europe. Supported by the optimistic PMI data of various countries, oil prices began to rebound during the European session, and fell and rose during the US session, giving up some gains overnight. At the close, WTI crude oil reported 40.77 USD/barrel, while Brent crude oil reported 43.85 USD/barrel.
It is worth noting that despite the doubts about the recovery of crude oil demand, natural gas futures ushered in a good start on Monday. The natural gas futures price broke through USD 2/million btu, once rising by 16%, hitting a new high since the middle of this year 1 month. By the morning of August 4th, Beijing time, the price of Brent crude oil was reported at $43.88 per barrel. WTI crude oil price is now reported at $40.77/barrel, rising all day.
On Monday, oil prices rose by 2% due to better-than-expected global economic data, but supply-side pressure still exists. OPEC+plans to reduce its daily output to 7.7 million barrels this month from 9.6 million barrels in July, after Russia slightly increased its oil production in July. However, the data show that all these extra outputs may not enter the international market.
According to data estimates, the output of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries increased by about 900,000 barrels per day in July to 23.43 million barrels per day. At present, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners are continuing to control production according to the agreement in order to cope with the adverse effects of falling demand. At the same time, including Iraq and Nigeria, did not show the same self-discipline, made no progress in fulfilling the production reduction, and did not implement the promised compensatory additional production reduction.
EdMoya, an analyst, said that due to the continued weak global demand for crude oil, oil prices may start to fall further as OPEC+begins to relax production reduction quotas. The global economic recovery is faltering and the dollar continues to weaken. Analysts expect oil prices to further consolidate, but there are downside risks. In the coming week, WTI crude oil price may consolidate in the region of 38.50-42.50 USD/barrel.
Looking forward to the market outlook, the United States will announce its API crude oil inventories for the week from July to 365,438+0 at 4: 30am on Wednesday, with the previous value unexpectedly dropping by 6.829 million barrels. Investors should pay attention to the data changes in the last week. In addition, the United States is in the tropical storm season, and the tropical storm Isaias will intensify into a hurricane, which will continue to affect the east coast of the United States and may lead to a decrease in oil and gas production in the United States. (Source: Golden Net; Compile/car home? Zhang Xuelian)