The price of eggs is "unusual", which ushered in the "good start" of the Year of the Rabbit. Although the price of eggs fell during the Spring Festival, this year's decline was significantly lower than in previous years, and the opening price of eggs ushered in a record high.
The price of sheep that has been suppressed for more than a year has recently changed its face.
The price of peanuts is strong, market confidence is restored, and major grain merchants are generally reluctant to sell.
The price of urea "has gone up and changed"
Although the price of urea is still on the rise, and the price of urea is generally raised by 10-20 yuan/ton, compared with before, the upward trend has slowed down.
Only a few enterprises in Shandong raised their prices 10 yuan/ton, some enterprises in Henan raised their prices 10 yuan/ton, Hebei and Shanxi raised their prices 10 yuan/ton and120 yuan/ton respectively, Fujian and Guangxi raised their prices 10 yuan/ton, and other regions.
After the holiday, all localities entered the Spring Festival stocking stage, and the demand for urea in agriculture increased, coupled with the slow recovery of industrial demand, the trading activity of urea market increased compared with that before the holiday, driving the price of urea to rise.
However, the upward trend of urea has slowed down due to the following points:
1, the early maintenance enterprises resumed work one after another, and the daily output of urea returned to about155,000 tons, so the market supply was guaranteed.
2. Although the industrial demand has recovered, the recovery progress is slow and the market activity has declined.
3. Although the agricultural demand is supported, it is difficult to continue to exert its strength.
Affected by both ends of supply and demand, the upward momentum of domestic urea market is insufficient, and the upward trend slows down. However, this situation is difficult to change in a short time, and the price of urea will show a steady and strong trend.
The price of eggs is "unusual"
The chart below shows the changes of the egg market in different time periods from 20 19 to 2023. It is not difficult to find that the current egg price is at the "highest point" in recent years.
Shandong egg price is 4.3-4.4 yuan, Hebei 4. 1-4.3 yuan, 4.4 yuan, Jiangsu, around 4.4 yuan, Henan, and Hubei 4.4-4.8 yuan.
Although, as in previous years, the price of eggs decreased during the Spring Festival, but this year's decline is too small, and after the holiday, the current price of eggs ushered in a new high.
Egg prices out of this "unusual" trend, I think:
1. In the last two months, the farmers have a high enthusiasm for eliminating old hens, the production capacity of laying hens has been seriously damaged, and the supply of eggs has plummeted.
2. Affected by the pre-holiday epidemic, residents' enthusiasm for stocking is not high. There are still some buying and selling activities in the market around the Spring Festival to support the price of eggs.
3. After the epidemic situation stabilized, the catering and tourism industries recovered obviously, and the consumption support in the egg market was strong.
4. Before the egg price continued to fall, the breeding end was willing to pay a high price.
After the Spring Festival consumption, the inventory of traders at all levels is weak, and the market needs to replenish the inventory.
Considering that the current production capacity of laying hens is relatively low and the supply of eggs is relatively weak, on the demand side, the continuous recovery of tourism and catering will support the demand for eggs, and the demand for eggs will increase in February when students start school, factories resume work and canteens.
Supported by many favorable factors, the short-term egg price will show a steady and strong trend.
The price of sheep "changed face" and the increase rebounded.
Not only is the price of eggs unusual, but the price of sheep is also unusual this year. In the traditional peak season before the Spring Festival, the price of sheep continued to fall, and after the holiday, it entered a period of low consumer demand, but the price of sheep "changed face" and the increase rebounded.
At present, in Tangxian County, Hebei Province, small-tailed Han sheep 13.4- 13. 1 yuan/kg, Xinmin sheep1-13.3 yuan/kg.
Shandong bird's nest: small-tailed Han sheep 13.5- 13.3 yuan/kg, fine-wool sheep skewers 13.8- 13.3 yuan/kg, Xinmin sheep14.8-14.
After the holiday, the decline in sheep prices rebounded. I think there are several logics:
1. With the advancement of de-capacity, the operation of eliminating ewes at the breeding end is reduced, and the supply of live sheep is reduced.
2. The recovery of catering and tourism has made the consumption of hot pot, roast mutton and other foods blossom everywhere, which has driven the market consumption demand of mutton.
3. The price fluctuation cycle of live sheep is about 3 years, which has entered the upward cycle of sheep price.
In 2023, China will enter the "post-epidemic era", the consumer market demand will be gradually released, the consumption of mutton will be greatly improved, and the price of sheep will rise sharply compared with 2022, especially in the first half and the second half of the year, the upward trend will gradually stabilize.
Peanut prices are firm, but there is a risk of falling.
At present, the price of Baisha in Henan is around 5.45-5.55 yuan, that of Haihua Tongmi in Shandong is around 5. 1-5.3 yuan, that of Liaoning 308 Tongmi is around 5.3-5.4 yuan, and that of Jilin 308 Tongmi is around 5.4 yuan.
Recently, the price performance of peanut market is strong because with the recovery of market transactions, the demand for stocking by traders increased after the year, and the market operation speed accelerated, while the effective supply at the grassroots level was limited, which led to a strong price operation.
However, the price of peanuts has slowed down in the last two days.
On the one hand, because the price of peanuts is firm and the quotation of producing area is on the high side, the demand side of peanuts is cautious about the high price.
On the other hand, due to the news that the oil factory has not entered the market for the time being, the goods of peanuts are not smooth and the price increase is blocked.
In the afternoon, the peanut market should focus on several factors, such as market demand, origin supply and the amount of imported rice arriving in Hong Kong.
Comprehensive analysis, although peanut consumption demand will increase with the stability of the epidemic, considering the comprehensive consumption capacity, peanut demand is difficult to be optimistic, and the supply side will increase with the development of grassroots acquisition activities.
It is expected that the short-term peanut price will run steadily and there will be downside risks in the medium and long term.