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How to improve the accuracy of futures investment
We can learn a lot from cheetahs who survive the fittest in nature. An excellent investor, before each operation, should stand at a certain height like a cheetah looking for prey, carefully analyze the general trend, study the investment of main funds, market background, hot spots, themes, the strength of both sides, the investment value of individual stocks, and your opponents. Once you find the prey, don't rush to open a position, wait, wait patiently, and wait for the best opportunity. Waiting is painful, but also necessary. Cheetahs can wait day and night, not eating or drinking, in order to wait for the best opportunity and hit a hit. Only when the opportunities far outweigh the risks can you enter the market on a large scale, and you will never make money without short positions. Ordinary retail investors never short positions, so their result is always a loss, and the thinking mode of not short positions leads to a loss all the time. Good investors must also learn to wait. In the process of waiting, they must resist the temptation until Rogers, a famous investment master and Soros's partner, said: "When money is picked up on the ground, it is the best time to attack. Livingston, the author of Memoirs of Stock Speculators, the most famous and oldest investment book on Wall Street, has repeatedly stressed that investors must grasp the "key points" when entering the market, and choose the best entry point by combining "time factor" and "price factor". My teacher, stanley kroll, also worships Livingston the most. Almost all Wall Street experts have read this book published in the early 20th century. I have read this book dozens of times in the past 65,438+00 years, and found that my understanding of this book is different at different investment stages. A few years later, I finally understood Livingston's operational thinking and realm, and understood the secret of grasping the best starting point. I found it and felt very sorry for Livingston. Due to the weakness of human nature, he was too impulsive and controlling to fully implement his own investment strategy, which led to the disintegration of his investment career and finally ended his life with a gun. While reading his books and operating examples many times, I have studied the achievements of American psychology and success for several years, and found that if Livingston can use psychological methods and tools such as subconscious, he can restrain the human weakness of investors and he will eventually become famous all over the world. All investors want a daily limit when they buy, and a daily limit when they are short. How cool. But it can't be 100% correct. I can't, you can't, all investment masters and traders can't. However, how to improve the accuracy of investment to more than 90% or even 95%, we need to study the operation methods of these successful investment masters and traders. All successful investment masters and traders have one thing in common: patience. Patience includes: 1. Wait patiently for the big trend to appear. Wait patiently for the best entry point. Wait patiently for the best exit point. Wait patiently for the profit to increase. Any impatient investor will never be a good investor. I have met many investment masters and experts at home and abroad. They are very patient. They do a lot of research preparation before entering the market and wait for the best opportunity to act. Rogers, the founder of Quantum Fund and the "father of Austrian stock market", summed up his first failure in investing in the stock market and said: "I have learned that unless I know what I am doing, it is best not to do anything. I also understand that it is best not to rush into the market unless the time is completely favorable. In this way, even if you make a mistake, it won't cause much harm. " Last year, the author consulted a rich man in Taiwan Province Province, Mr. Lin, who earned 5 million yuan a year in a few years and is now worth 10 billion. In recent years, he has been engaged in stock investment. He told me that one of the secrets of his successful investment is not to operate frequently, to wait patiently, and to seize the opportunity twice a year before attacking. What is the best time to enter? -resultant point+* * * vibration point 1. When the long, medium and short trends all send out the same direction signal; 2. When all analysis methods send out the same direction signal. There is such a 20-80 natural law in the market, that is to say, the market is in a bull market, 80% of stocks go up, 20% go down, and the market is in a bear market, 20% go up and 80% go down. Before the reform and opening up, it was very sensitive to talk about wealth, but now it is natural to talk about wealth. In the stock market, when the market index rises, all stocks are more likely to rise than in the bear market. The market index represents the background of long-term and macro trends. After confirming the background of long-term and macro trends through fundamental analysis or technical analysis, we should look for accurate buying signals in short-term trends through technical analysis, and then boldly enter the market after all long-term, medium-term and short-term trends show buying or selling signals in the same direction. 2. When all relevant markets are in the same trend direction, there will be a domestic market and a foreign market of the same market. Only when the price trend of foreign markets is consistent with the domestic market, the success rate of entering the market is higher than that when the domestic and foreign markets are not synchronized. For example, the soybean (472 1,-1.00, -0.02%) futures of Dalian Futures Exchange in China are in the same trend as those of Chicago Futures Exchange in the United States, and the success rate of entering the market is very high. In 2003, soybean futures in the United States and China both broke through the historical bottom of more than three years, and there was a rare surge in 10, which rose by nearly 40% in one month in 2003. Similarly, in the domestic stock market, when the trend of Shanghai and Shenzhen is consistent, there will be a big bull market. Especially 1999, with the internet of international stock market, there are many myths in China stock market, with 10 times and dozens of times a year. In recent years, through a lot of research on the characteristics of domestic and foreign markets, I have counted the examples and books of domestic and foreign investment masters and traders, and improved the investment success rate of the previous trend trading system from about 30% to over 90%. In the study of these examples of investment masters and traders at home and abroad, it is found that the more money you make, the less times you operate. The time period of operation is generally daily operation, week, month, quarter, year and several years, of which daily operation is the least and the most difficult. I also found this problem in the process of research. As the success rate increases, the trading opportunities will decrease. In order to solve this problem, I turned my investment eyes from China to the world, and invested in all the markets I can participate in, such as China stock market, futures, foreign exchange, gold and stocks. It makes up for the problem that with the improvement of success rate, trading opportunities will decrease. How to find an accurate starting point? The son of the stock reviewer is an internet addict, and all his pocket money is given to the internet bar. Last month, I sold my walkman to raise money for the Internet. I sold my electric guitar again last week. I sold my school bike yesterday. The stock critic flew into a rage when he knew it, and shouted, Bastard! Is it easy for your mother and I to scrimp and save on these things? Why don't you know how to improve? The son disagreed: Why don't I make progress? When doing stock reviews, I often say that buying is an apprentice and selling is a master! As investors know, many of more than 30 experts mentioned that they relied on their own technology to analyze the trading system in the process of trading decision-making, especially when the market was in chaos, and they could resolutely implement the established trading plan, so that investors could maintain a consistent probability of victory. For example, Soros, Soros and his chief assistants Stanley druckenmiller, richard dennis, Andrew Busch, stanley kroll and others can find perfection through the combination of basic analysis and technical analysis when looking for the general direction. When experts enter the market, they will refer to technical analysis to find buying opportunities. The following will introduce relevant technical analysis to investors. Because the domestic stock and futures market has only been running for more than 10 years, the participants in the early market are not very common, and the market is often operated by several large households, and the price distortion often occurs in the market, which violates the principle that technical analysis needs more participants. Therefore, the technical trend of China futures and stock market has its own characteristics in China, and it does not fully refer to the trend of foreign classic technical graphics. Therefore, investors should be treated differently according to the characteristics of the domestic market.