From the perspective of the futures market, the gold (spot) transaction price has little influence on the futures market, and the gold futures market pays more attention to the monetary attribute of gold.
The international situation affects the trend of gold price.
For a long time, gold transactions in the spot and futures markets in the international market have been denominated in US dollars, so the fluctuation of the exchange rate of the US dollar against major global currencies has also had an extremely significant impact on the international gold price. In addition, generally speaking, if there is a "hot spot" in international geopolitics, gold is about to rise, especially the tension in the Middle East, which will often have a great impact on the gold turmoil in a short time. In 2008, as soon as the international gold market opened, it encountered tension in northern Iraq and confrontation between Iran and the US military, so Jinye broke through the relevant barriers. In addition, there is a certain correlation between gold and oil prices. Historically, the price of crude oil often rose, and so did the price of gold. However, because the situation of gold is too strong recently, it is difficult for oil to hit the 100-yuan mark in a short time, so the price of gold is decoupled from the price of crude oil. This is what investors need to pay attention to.
As inflation rises, so does the price of gold.
At present, although the price of gold in the international market has rebounded, global inflation expectations are heating up and the currencies of major countries are also depreciating. Therefore, the international gold market, including the Shanghai gold futures price, will continue to grow, especially in the short to medium term. In addition, the global market has been basically determined, and the world will enter the era of inflation in 2008. In this situation, most currencies no longer have the function of maintaining and increasing value, so the bullish trend of gold is supported by fundamentals. When buying and selling gold futures, we must pay special attention to the CPI index of all countries in the world, especially the CPI index of the United States and China, which has a great influence on the price of gold. At the same time, just like the stock market, price fluctuations are usually ahead of schedule, and the previous gold boom has also overdrawn the inflation factor. Therefore, either the inflation in various countries is higher than expected, or it is difficult for gold to grow on a large scale above a specific price, especially in the case of a rebound in the US dollar.
Pay attention to the risk events of market rise.
What needs to be clear is that trading in the gold futures market is actually speculation. The direction of speculation is mainly based on the popularity of the market, while the degree of speculation is based on the number of participants. In the past, gold soared and the fluctuation of the gold market also expanded, indicating that more and more people participated. Generally speaking, compared with the foreign exchange market and the stock market, gold is a "small-cap stock" and the probability of being fired is greater, so participants need to be more rigorous. Because the gold market price is still in the upward channel, it does not rule out the possibility of gold rising alone, nor does it rule out that the international gold market price once again breaks through the big barrier of the upper resistance level. The actual value of gold (commodity) is far more than that, and the related bubble has been huge. Due to speculation, there is huge room for ups and downs in the future. To participate in the gold futures market, we must attach importance to technical research. Referring to the changes in the international gold market, we need to do a good job in fund management and control-control risks. No matter when, it will not cause heavy losses to the business, and the usual short-term investment cannot be higher than the available margin ratio of 10%. As the turmoil in the gold market is extremely fierce, it is also very important for futures varieties to stop losses in time.
Suggestions on operation strategy: Recently, the overall direction of the international gold futures market has fallen sharply, and it is still necessary to wait for the opportunity to operate when the price is gradually approaching the dividend. Investors who are good at short-term trading can make fast-forward and fast-out transactions according to the changes in the international gold market and with reference to the US dollar index, US GDP, inflation rate and unemployment rate in major countries.
Risk warning: gold futures trading is the same as the stock trading department. First of all, there is the possibility of a short position, and it is necessary to control the position; Secondly, you can go long and short at the same time, so the choice of direction is also extremely important; Thirdly, because Shanghai gold futures did not realize continuous trading all day, chasing up and down is extremely dangerous. These days, if you blindly chase up and down, the loss rate is generally around 50%.