With the rising price of gold, many "golden aunts" who became famous in April 20 13 and June 20 10 in China have quietly withdrawn. However, Grandpa Maotai, who is keen on liquor investment, is still highly respected by investors from all walks of life in the spotlight market. Looking forward to 20021,analysts have different views on the trend of gold, but they are still optimistic about the overall performance of the liquor sector.
"Aunt Jin" has some people leaving and some people staying.
In 2020, the price of gold rose sharply. The spot price of international gold rose from $65,438+$0.500 per ounce at the beginning of the year to $2,075 per ounce, with an increase of 38.33%. Even after the callback in the second half of the year, there is still an increase of about 25%. At the same time, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures has increased by 36.95% since 2020.
China's "Golden Aunt" became famous in April 20 13 and June 20 10, which has been a hot topic in the market. According to the calculation, the opening cost of "Golden Aunt" in April 20 13 and June 0/0 was about 1350- 1400 USD/oz, and the holding cost was about 1450 USD/oz, including the processing fee of physical gold. However, "Aunt Jin" has gone through a long ordeal. After several fleeting opportunities to return to capital, it was not until 2020 that the price of gold really returned to capital and made a profit.
Since the end of 20 19, the price of gold has been rising continuously, and fell sharply in mid-March 2020, but then rose rapidly, constantly refreshing the record high. "The precious metal market in 2020 can be summarized as two unprecedented: unprecedented economic impact and unprecedented monetary easing. A large amount of funds turned to safe-haven assets represented by gold. " Zhang Ge, a researcher in the asset allocation research team of CITIC Securities, said that in 2020, the precious metals market will mainly focus on the "black swan incident".
Wind data shows that as of February 28th, 65438+, the main contract price of COMEX gold futures was reported as 1888.2 USD/oz. According to this price, China "Golden Aunt" has earned about $438 per ounce, and the rate of return is about 30% without handling fees.
In mid-2020, when the international gold price rose to $65,438 +0.800 per ounce, many gold investors had already bought back. It is understood that behind the safety of investors, the rise in gold prices is one of the reasons. On the other hand, it is also an influencing factor for some investors to repay their credit cards and mortgages through gold repurchase.
"Grandpa Maotai" has become the focus of the market
"Grandpa Maotai" has become an investment phenomenon in the A-share market in recent two years. Wind data shows that as of February 28th, 65438, Shanxi Fenjiu, which has the highest increase among liquor stocks since 2020, increased by 302. 16%, while Jiugui Liquor, Golden Seed Liquor and Jinhui Liquor all increased by more than 200%, among which Jiugui Liquor increased by 293.0 1%. Yanghe, Wuliangye, ST Shede, Li Qingqing Fenjiu, Laobaigan and Gu Jing Winery all doubled their income.
Kweichow Moutai's share price has gone further and further on the road to a record high, reaching an intraday high of 1906.20 yuan on February 23rd, the highest price in history.
Outside the secondary market, famous wine collection and famous wine trust products were once popular. A famous wine vendor told china securities journal that the price of Maotai, which was less than 1000 yuan in 2065,438+2004, has more than tripled since it was held.
"The sudden epidemic in 2020 has caused catering to continue to rise for five years under the dual logic of' amplifying consumption' and' delaying socialization', and the current valuation is at a historical high." TF Securities Food and Beverage Team believes that the food and beverage sector has continued to rise in recent five years, and the logic behind it is the premium increase brought by strong defensive attributes, stable profits, abundant cash flow and high return on investment.
The team said that the upgrading of consumption and the improvement of industry concentration will continue to benefit the development space of the industry. This sector is currently at a high valuation level, but with the acceleration of industry integration and stable performance support, the valuation center of this sector will continue to move up, benefiting from high-quality leading companies with solid fundamentals and highly flexible targets with continuous marginal improvement.
Can the strong stay strong at 202 1?
Looking forward to the market outlook, many analysts have different views on the trend of gold, but overall they are optimistic about the performance of the liquor sector.
Xu Ying, a senior precious metals analyst at Zhengdong Futures, told china securities journal that the gold bull market of 202 1 is expected to continue. The main logic is that the global economy will usher in a recovery in 20021,which has basically become a market consensus, but there are differences in the strength of the recovery, and it is expected that the recovery of the US economy will be slow. 202 1 driven by the prices of crude oil and raw materials, inflation is expected to rise sharply. The Fed's tolerance for inflation will increase, and the nominal interest rate will rise at a slower rate than inflation. As a result, the real interest rate will remain in a deep negative state, and the environment of low interest rate and weak dollar needed for gold to rise is still there. The spot price of international gold is expected to break through the previous high point, so it is recommended to do more gold and gold-related assets.
Zhang Ge predicted that precious metals would fluctuate and fall after the peak season of 20021Spring Festival. Zhang Ge analysis, according to Merrill Lynch's clock model, during the recession, funds tend to hedge assets. However, under the background of 202 1 changing from recession to recovery expectation, rising risk preference will make financial capital transfer to risk assets again, and gold will be transformed from safe-haven assets to commodity attributes, thus supporting the price of gold. Referring to the recovery experience after the economic crisis in 2008, gold peaked before QE exited and interest rates rose. In June 2020 165438+ 10, the global gold ETF positions showed the second largest retracement since 20 13, and it is expected that the gold price will usher in an inflection point.
As for liquor, Zhang Yuguang, an analyst in the food and beverage industry of open source securities, said that 202 1 was a year after the liquor sector accumulated strength, and it continued to be optimistic about this sector. At present, the valuation of first-and second-tier liquor stocks is in a reasonable range. Under the trend that the industry is basically improving, there is no substantial basis for stock price correction. Specifically, there are three main factors: first, the channel inventory is at a low level, the demand continues to recover, and the performance of liquor companies in the peak season is optimistic. Second, the terminal price of high-end liquor reached a new high in 2020, which raised the price ceiling of secondary high-end liquor. It is predicted that 202 1 will be the year of price increase for the second high-end products. Third, the base utility is low in 2020, and the performance of liquor enterprises, especially liquor enterprises at the next high end and below, will be more flexible to improve at 202 1.