Wall Street analysts pointed out that as the traditional saviors of the gold market, the demand of Indian and China gold buyers has been greatly reduced by coin waste or curbing capital outflow. Here are five reasons why gold is sluggish:
Strong dollar
When the dollar appreciates, gold priced in dollars will drop significantly. The US dollar hit a three-and-a-half-year high of/kloc-0 last month, which was the main reason for the sharp drop in gold prices.
Of course, gold and the dollar are positively correlated-at 20 10 and 20 1 1, both of them rise together, and that's because risk aversion causes funds to flood into gold and the dollar at the same time. The reason why the dollar is strong now is not hedging, so there will be no situation in which both rise and fall together.
risk appetite
When the market goes down, the supporters are usually price-sensitive physical gold buyers, and the physical demand is largely jewelry.
Statistics show that since 20 10, Asian consumers have spent 79% of the world's gold and jewelry, among which China and India are the biggest buyers. However, the demand of these two gold owners has been severely impacted: Indian waste coins have significantly impacted the demand for gold in the wedding season, and China's efforts to curb capital outflows and safeguard the RMB have also hit the demand for gold in China.
Daniel smith, an analyst at Oxford Economic Research Institute, believes that from a fundamental point of view, the demand for physical gold is very weak, so the supporters of traditional gold prices can do nothing at this time.
American position interest rate
Carsten Menke, an analyst at Swiss Baosheng Bank, believes that after the Fed meeting in June 5438+February 65438+April, the overall market bet that interest rates will rise, and this expectation will be further strengthened after Trump wins the election, which is completely inhuman for gold that does not pay interest.
Menke wrote: "The market is paying attention to the positive factors in Trump's commitment, and this positive factor means the improvement of US GDP growth rate, the acceleration of interest rate hike, the strong dollar, and the tragic gold price."
Menke pointed out that in fact, due to the possibility of normalization of US monetary policy, the price of gold fell by nearly 10% at the end of last year. Although in 20 16, the price of gold rebounded because traders' expectations of raising interest rates were tortured by the Federal Reserve, if the Federal Reserve hinted in the press conference of 12 or 14 or the minutes of subsequent meetings that this interest rate hike was the beginning of a new normal, the price of gold still fell.
bond yield
Gambarini, an analyst at Capital Economics, said: "Because Trump's commitment to expand infrastructure will push up inflation and reduce the value of bonds currently in circulation, the yield of US 10-year government bonds suddenly rose after Trump won."
In his analysis report, he pointed out that because gold is an interest-free asset, the opportunity cost of holding gold will increase when the bond yield rises.
"In addition, the United States and Germany, which are also safe havens like gold, are also increasing their returns on fixed-income assets, because they also need to work hard to attract funds from high-risk but high-yield markets such as the stock market and foreign exchange market," Gambarini said.
In addition, he also believes that the rise in bond yields is due to the expectation of high interest rates and high inflation, not because of safe-haven demand. This is why bond yields have risen and gold prices have been wasted.
The New York Mercantile Exchange gold futures market was the most active in February, 2065438+2007, which decreased by 5. 1 USD compared with the previous trading day and closed at 1 172.4 USD per ounce, with a decrease of 0.43%.
According to Xinhua News Agency (65438+9 February), the European Central Bank announced on the 8th that in order to stimulate the economic recovery in the euro zone and cope with the deflationary pressure, it decided to keep the current zero interest rate policy in the euro zone unchanged, and at the same time, it extended the bond purchase plan originally scheduled to expire in March next year to the end of next year.
Analysts said that the European Central Bank's economic stimulus plan made the euro lower against the US dollar and pushed the US dollar stronger, which was the main reason for the decline in gold futures prices that day.
On the 8th, for other precious metals, the price of silver futures for delivery in March 2007+2065438 fell by 17.9 cents to close at $7.096 per ounce, a decrease of1.04%; Platinum futures for June delivery 20 17 rose 0.6 USD to 943.8 USD per ounce, with an increase of 0.06%.
For reference only, please be cautious when investing.