First, the theoretical basis of technical analysis
1。 Market behavior is all-encompassing: any factor that affects prices, including fundamentals, political factors, psychological factors and so on. It must be finally reflected in the price through buying and selling, that is, price changes reflect the relationship between supply and demand, and supply and demand determine price changes.
2。 Prices evolve in the form of trends: for the trends that have been formed, they usually continue to evolve along the existing trends. For example, Newton's law of inertia (when an object is not affected by external forces, it remains stationary or moves in a straight line at a constant speed).
3。 History will repeat itself: technical analysis has a certain relationship with market behavior and people's psychology, and price patterns show investors' optimism or pessimism about a market through specific charts. Such as the four seasons in nature.
Second, the commonly used technical analysis methods
1。 Moving average: the calculation process of moving average is: first calculate the average of the first n items in time series, then delete one item in front and add one item in the back, calculate the second average of n items, and then calculate the average in the back in the same way. When calculating the average, we should take a certain day as the starting point and the previous period as the calculation cycle, and calculate the average closing price of the daily stock price in this period, which is the stock price on the starting day. Starting from the next day, the same number of days is still taken, and the average value is calculated as the stock price of the next day. If the 5-day moving average is made from March 5th, then the average share price on March 5th should be the average of the closing price of the share price from March 2nd to March 6th (the 5-day here should be 5 trading days), and so on. As the calculation date goes on, the average value of the same time interval is continuously marked and the curve is drawn, which is the moving average stock price. The advantage of adopting the moving average method is that it reduces the influence of accidental factors on the curve for a period of time, makes the curve smooth and makes it easier for investors to understand the trend of the curve. Under normal circumstances, when the moving average is rising and the stock price falls below the moving average, this is a signal that the stock price trend will fall; On the contrary, it is a prelude to the stock price rise.
2。 Golden section: "Golden section rate" is a very magical number. Using it to predict and analyze the market situation can not only accurately predict the rising or falling range of stock index or stock price, but also determine the resistance level (or pressure level) and support level in the process of stock index or stock price rising. /kloc-at the end of 0/5th century, Frantu missionary Luca? Baciorri found that the reason why the pyramids can stand for thousands of years and have beautiful appearance is that the ratio of their height to the structures on each side of the base is "5:8". Because of the mystery and value of this mysterious ratio, the word gold was used, and the book describing this ratio was named "The Golden Section". For hundreds of years, some scholars and experts have found that architectural structure, mechanical engineering, music art, and even many natural things are all related to the mysterious numbers of 0.382 and 0.6 18 with an approximate ratio of "5:8". In practice, the golden section is mainly used to reveal the adjustment support level in the rising market or the rebound pressure level in the falling market. However, the golden section does not consider the impact of time changes on the stock price. The support level and pressure level revealed are relatively fixed, and investors do not know when they will reach the support level and pressure level. Therefore, if the index or stock price runs sideways at the top or bottom for too long, its reference function will be discounted.
3。 Morphological analysis: Morphological analysis is one of the commonly used methods in technical analysis. According to the position of the stock price, it can be divided into bottom shape, top shape and finishing shape, and each shape has its corresponding graphic characteristics and operation methods (such as the best trading point and stop loss point).
4。 Wave theory: Wave theory is an important part of technical analysis. This theory is a price trend analysis tool invented by Eliot, a technical master. According to the fluctuation law of periodic cycle, the trend of stock index and stock price is analyzed and predicted. Its theory is this: the stock price rises after five consecutive fluctuations, and after five fluctuations (called push waves) are completed, there will be three fluctuations (called adjustment waves) falling. These eight fluctuations constitute a cycle of stock price changes. Then began the second adjustment of 5 waves rising and 3 waves falling. Finally, with the rise of 5 waves, the whole rising process is declared to be over. In the final stage, there won't be three adjustment waves as small as the previous two, instead, there will be three adjustment waves in the process of rising, and all five rising waves will fluctuate greatly. The period of this theory is based on the "eight-wave period". Every rising/falling process has an eight-wave period, with a small period in the big period and a smaller period in the small period. In wave theory, five rising waves are called waves 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 respectively, and three falling waves are called waves a, b and c respectively, in which waves 1, 3, 5 and b tend to be upward, while waves 2, 4, a and c tend to be downward.