Previously, after Trump signed a Sino-US trade agreement with China, he increased tariffs on China, and then China increased import tariffs to ensure the interests of state-owned enterprises. After Biden took office, in fact, everyone thought that Sino-US relations would be improved. However, he did not lower the tariffs on China. On the contrary, he made China more difficult on the issues of China, Taiwan Province Province, Hongkong and human rights. In order to ensure their own interests, China also made a corresponding counterattack.
It can be said that the contradictions and conflicts between China and the United States have not yet been resolved. On the contrary, they may get worse. However, although the two sides still failed to reach a peaceful consensus, Sino-US trade cooperation has not stopped.
Under such an obvious tit-for-tat situation, the trade between China and the United States has not been affected, but has been developing towards prosperity. According to relevant data, in the 18 months after China and the United States signed the trade agreement, the economic and trade exchanges between the two countries increased instead of decreasing, especially after being hit by the epidemic, showing the fastest speed in history.
In 2020, China suspended its agricultural cooperation with Australia, and then China turned its attention to other countries, with the United States as one of our partners. At present, China has purchased millions of tons of agricultural products from the United States, which not only meets China's demand for agricultural products, but also greatly increases the trade between the two countries.
American imports from China also hit a record high. The lowest data is that in February 2020, China was seriously affected by the epidemic and could not export products on a large scale. The monthly trade volume at that time was also $654.38+09 billion. Then, after the epidemic was basically controlled, the trade quota rose again. Such a large trade has also led to a serious backlog of American ports and a shortage of truck transportation.
According to the data released by the largest port in the United States, nearly half of the goods that the port handles and unloads every day come from China. After entering May, colleges and universities began to stock up for the start of school and Halloween, Christmas and other festivals, and the purchase volume reached a record high.
The person in charge of the port said that according to this trend, this data will continue to rise in the second half of this year when the festival officially arrives, and it has become one of the biggest problems that the goods arriving in Hong Kong cannot be delivered to retailers in time. At present, they have sent more vehicles to solve this problem.
This series of prosperity scenes makes people wonder, where did the increased tariffs go after the signing of the Sino-US trade agreement? Why didn't it affect Sino-US trade?
Faced with these doubts, the head of the American Retail Association said that in order to ensure their own interests, American retailers decided to make small profits but quick turnover. If the price of goods rises slightly within the acceptable range of customers, they can digest these taxes. Although they will earn less, they can maintain a normal life.
At present, the United States has successfully raised tariffs on China and increased pressure on China. It should have achieved the original purpose of signing the agreement, but did it achieve what the US government wanted? The speech of an American expert directly broke the crisis in the United States today.
US Trade Representative Dai Qijian called Sino-US trade relations "unbalanced", and US Treasury Secretary Yellen was also dissatisfied with this. She thought that the trade agreement signed by Trump and China didn't solve the fundamental problem, and then she pointed out that President Biden should put measures to cancel the trade war on the agenda, otherwise the losses suffered by the United States would be immeasurable.
Indeed, the United States signed the Sino-US trade agreement mainly to suppress China's economic development. At the same time, the United States also restricted the high-tech products that China wanted, and sold some machines that failed to meet the standards of China to China. China refused to buy these machines and only bought agricultural products necessary for people's life. Our country refused to buy unqualified goods, and only bought them in areas where they were needed, which directly led to the failure of the United States to achieve the expected results.
Lardy, a senior researcher at the American Institute for International Economics, hit the nail on the head and pointed out this imbalance. He pointed out that what China bought was what China needed, and it was for his own benefit. This is not what the United States imagined. It was forced to buy products recommended by the United States, which harmed its own interests.
American experts even pointed out that in recent months, the reason why the United States bought a lot of China products was mainly because it was worried that the government would adopt tougher and more overbearing tariff measures in the second half of the year. At present, the United States has sanctioned a number of China enterprises for human rights issues, which seems to be a start. Therefore, in order to ensure the normal sales and benefits in the second half of the year, they had to stock up in advance.
Even some basic parts of the automobile industry come from China. In order to ensure that it is not affected by the government's tariff increase, more and more enterprises choose to transfer their production chains abroad.
Later, some experts said that this series of actions just proved that China can cooperate with other countries after leaving the American market, while the United States has to import most of it from other countries because of insufficient basic production. As the largest country in basic production at present, China is the largest cooperative partner of the United States. Later, the expert clearly pointed out that the current situation is not that China cannot do without the United States, but that the United States cannot do without China.
According to relevant data, the trade surplus between China and the United States has reached 654.38+006.94 billion yuan, which means that the trade crackdown initiated by the United States not only made China suffer losses, but also won huge profits from the United States. On the contrary, the American economy has been greatly affected by this agreement. What is happening in the United States now seems to confirm an old saying-lift a rock and drop it on your own feet.
In order to counter the tariff increase imposed by the United States, China added the tariff increase to the products sold to the United States. In the end, only 6% of the tariff increase was borne by China, and the rest was borne by American consumers, which seriously affected the American economy.
In order to solve this crisis, the American government began to print money without restraint, which eventually led to serious inflation in the United States, the domestic people could not even maintain their basic survival needs, the unemployed population was also rising, and the national government's burden was aggravated.
However, the United States is now facing the expiration of national debt, and it is unable to continue to increase its income by issuing national debt. The balance of US national debt can only last for a few months. If the U.S. government can't suspend or raise the debt ceiling, the domestic economy will collapse completely and the government will be in a state of suspension. By then, the international financial crisis is bound to reappear.
Now the Biden administration has not found a solution to the problem. Relevant experts said that the United States can only survive the crisis by suspending and raising the debt ceiling. Up to now, the US Congress has raised the debt ceiling 78 times, and the government intends to solve the problem through this method. But if you want to raise the ceiling, you must vote, which means Biden must promote the cooperation between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party, which is another difficult problem Biden is currently facing.
Of course, at present, the United States has not put all its hopes on raising the debt ceiling, and is trying its best to shift the debt crisis to China. In recent months, the United States has bought some low-priced consumer goods and high-tech electronic products from China on a large scale. Even in the first quarter of this year, China and the United States reached a cooperation of10.08 trillion, and all these results were brought about by the intention of the United States to shift inflationary pressure to China.
Now the US government keeps printing money, and a large number of dollars enter the market, which not only leads to the depreciation of the dollar, but also leads to the continuous decline of the credit of the dollar, which also has an impact on the international status of the dollar. At the same time, many countries, led by Russia, are now implementing dollarization. Once the dollar depreciates successfully, the United States will suffer huge losses.
Of course, China is not completely ignorant of the thoughts and intentions of the United States, and now China has begun to take corresponding protective measures. I believe that even if the US economic market collapses and international financial trade is affected, China can safeguard its own interests during this period.
At present, it is difficult for other countries except China to bear the economic crisis caused by the United States, but a series of actions by the United States have led to cooperation between China and the United States, and it is difficult to reach cooperation in a short time. So, can the Biden administration find a solution to this crisis?
After printing a lot of money, Biden's government increased the subsidy funds for the unemployed, and at the same time, it gave 65,438 US dollars+0,000 US dollars to eligible Americans, but these people used the money to invest in the US stock market and real estate, resulting in an increase of nearly 20% in US house prices in recent months, which is completely contrary to the actual situation in the United States.
American veteran investment companies warned that Biden's government must find a way to solve this problem. If house prices are allowed to rise, the crisis in the United States will be more serious than the financial crisis in 2008.
Once the house price rises too much, the American people's desire for consumption will decrease. At this time, in order to stimulate consumption, the United States can only issue dollars again, which forms an infinite cycle, and the consequences will be irreparable for the United States.
The problem of rising house prices is also a microcosm of the current economic problems in the United States. Biden directly introduced an American policy before this, which did not allow landlords to evict tenants who could not pay the rent at the end of June. As soon as this policy is sold to countless landlords, it is enough to show that Biden has no idea how to solve this economic problem. At this time, more and more voices began to suggest that the government cooperate with China.
On July 26th, US Deputy Secretary of State Sherman held talks with China State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Vice Foreign Minister Xie Feng in Tianjin, which mainly revealed a meaning, hoping to ease relations with China and re-establish economic and trade cooperation, and at the same time hoped that China could help the United States tide over this crisis.
At present, China has not agreed to the request made by the United States. If China wants to help the United States, then the United States must adopt a certain attitude. China also put forward two lists of corrections, clearly pointing out the suppression of China by the United States in recent years. The meaning is also obvious. If the United States can correct these mistakes, China can consider cooperating with the United States again.
However, in recent months, some actions of the United States in the South China Sea seem to show that they are unwilling to correct their mistakes. Therefore, the possibility of resuming cooperation between China and the United States is slim. China has already suffered, and it is impossible to help the United States any more.
Previously, when the economic crisis broke out in the United States in 2008, China bought a lot of US Treasury bonds, which eventually led to a huge impact on itself. Even the United States did not thank China for this, but later intensified its crackdown on China. So no matter from which angle, China will not help it through this economic crisis. Because the United States has never been sincere.
In recent years, China has gradually started to "de-dollarize" following Russian steps. Although some regions still need to rely on the US dollar at present, at the same time, we believe that China will not be seriously affected by this economic crisis as long as we keep enough vigilance, observe the trend of the United States and adjust monetary policy in time.
There is a proverb in China, "Stealing chickens does not eat rice". This sentence perfectly explains the psychology of Biden's government. In order to develop the domestic economy and solve the domestic unemployment crisis, we printed money on a large scale, and even under the domestic economic difficulties, we proposed infrastructure projects as high as 1 trillion dollars, thinking that this would restore the American economy, but the result was worse.
Of course, as one of the best countries in the world, it is impossible for the United States to survive this crisis completely, but at the same time, we also hope that this crisis will bring some lessons to the American government and reconsider its friendly cooperation with other countries. Otherwise, the hegemonic position of the dollar will be shaken again.