"The next few years will be a stage of rapid growth in the domestic photovoltaic material market demand. Although the domestic output of EVA photovoltaic materials continues to increase, the supply gap is expected to narrow, but the gap will not be completely filled in 2~3 years. " Zhang Xiaohan, senior consultant of China Chemical Information Center (hereinafter referred to as "China Huaxin"), told reporters that the overall price of EVA may rebound in the fourth quarter of this year, and the demand for EVA in photovoltaic market will still be relatively strong next year. "The newly put into production capacity cannot be completely released in the short term, and there is still a big gap. It is expected that the price of EVA photovoltaic materials will remain high next year. "
Silbon EVA is fully produced and sold.
In the national petrochemical industrial base of Xu Wei New District, Lianyungang, the EVA finished product workshop of Oriental Hongsheng Sibang Petrochemical Company, 25 kilograms of photovoltaic ethylene-vinyl acetate copolymer per bag piled up into a hill. Before long, these products will be sent to photovoltaic film manufacturers all over the country.
Photovoltaic grade ethylene-vinyl acetate copolymer is a new material made of ethylene-vinyl acetate polymer, which is mainly used to make photovoltaic films. It is an indispensable packaging material for photovoltaic modules, which has the characteristics of high light transmittance, ultraviolet resistance and yellowing resistance, which directly determines the product quality and service life of photovoltaic modules. The research shows that the ethylene-vinyl acetate copolymer with the content of vinyl acetate (VA) of 28%~33% and the melt flow rate (MFR) of about 40 is the most suitable for packaging EVA films.
The reporter learned that at present, the mainstream production processes of EVA in China include tube method and kettle method, in which the tube method is mainly used for film and cable, and the kettle method is mainly used in foaming, coating, hot melt adhesive, cable and other fields. "We are the first enterprise in China to successfully develop the preparation method and production formula of photovoltaic grade EVA by using EVA tube process, and we can produce photovoltaic grade EVA in batches for a long period of time. The original design capacity of the device is 200,000 tons/year. " Chen Sheng, production manager of EVA Division of Hilbang Petrochemical Company, introduced to the reporter.
The tubular EVA plant of Sibang Petrochemical Company was successfully started in March, 2065438+2007, which solved the technical problem of "bottleneck" of photovoltaic EVA in China's photovoltaic industry and greatly eased the contradiction between supply and demand in the downstream market.
Since the beginning of this year, the continuous running days of photovoltaic EVA products in the management plant of Sirbon Petrochemical Company have exceeded 100 days, greatly refreshing the previous record of 52 days. The long-term running record of this photovoltaic EVA product leads the world. According to reports, Saibang Petrochemical's EVA production capacity last year was 300,000 tons/year, accounting for 20.38% of the total domestic production capacity, of which the photovoltaic EVA production capacity exceeded 200,000 tons/year, accounting for 28% of the global photovoltaic EVA production, and the actual production capacity ranked first in China.
According to the financial report, in 20021year, the sales volume of EVA in Oriental Hong Sheng was 343,600 tons, the sales income was 6.396 billion yuan, the gross profit margin was 44%, and the average product price increased by about 90%.
"Due to industry demand, especially the rapid increase in the price of photovoltaic products, EVA products have risen across the board." Long Yuteng, product manager of EVA Division of Saibang Petrochemical, told the reporter that the EVA customers of the company basically covered all domestic film enterprises and continued to be in a state of full production and sales. "In the first seven months of this year, the output of photovoltaic EVA in Sirbon increased by 26.3% compared with the same period of last year."
under-supply
Set off a construction boom in China
China is the country with the largest EVA production and consumption in the world. According to statistics, in 202 1 year, the output of EVA in China was 1007600 tons, the apparent consumption was 20,530 tons, and the self-sufficiency rate was about 49%. Due to the high production threshold of photovoltaic grade EVA, long expansion period and many restrictions on production conversion, there are only a handful of enterprises that can produce photovoltaic grade EVA.
According to industry insiders, as of the end of last year, only three companies, Silicon Geminization, Lianhong Xinke and Ningbo Formosa Plastics, were able to stably produce photovoltaic grade ethylene-vinyl acetate copolymer with a total production capacity of about 300,000 tons/year. In contrast, the domestic consumption of photovoltaic grade EVA reached 800,000 tons in the same period, and the dependence on imports exceeded 60%. Insufficient supply of photovoltaic EVA has become a bottleneck affecting the development of photovoltaic industry. It is also in this context that an upsurge of EVA project construction has been set off in China.
As an industry leader, Saibang Petrochemical is ambitious in EVA projects. Bobby Chen told the reporter of Securities Times E Company that the second phase of Saibang Petrochemical plans to add 700,000 tons/year EVA production capacity, including three sets of 200,000 tons/year tubular devices and 1 set of 65,438+10,000 tons/year kettle devices. "Start 1 set of devices in September 2024, and strive to start them all in 2025." After all the EVA projects of Sibang Petrochemical Phase II are put into production, the total EVA production capacity of the company will exceed 654.38+00,000 tons/year.
Lianhong Xinke also continued to increase its holdings. In March this year, after the completion of Lianhong Xinke's "EVA Device Pipe Tail Technology Upgrade Project", the output increased to more than 6.5438+0.5 million tons/year, of which the proportion of photovoltaic film materials was stable at more than 80%. On this basis, the company also announced the start of the capacity building of 200,000 tons of photovoltaic materials.
Rong Sheng Petrochemical said on the interactive platform that its Zhejiang Petrochemical EVA device can produce 300,000 tons of photovoltaic materials every year, and is currently planning to further expand production. Baofeng Energy Phase III Project has an annual production capacity of 250,000 tons of EVA. When accepting an organization survey, the company said that the EVA project under construction can produce foaming materials, cable materials and photovoltaic packaging materials, and then decide which products to produce according to market demand. At present, the project is progressing smoothly and is expected to be completed in mid-2023. In addition, Yunenghua produced photovoltaic grade EVA in August last year, and Sinochem Quanzhou 65438+ 10,000 tons/year EVA plant produced photovoltaic grade EVA last year.
According to the statistics of China Huaxin, the total production capacity of domestic EVA production enterprises in 2022 will be 654.38+0.922 million tons. If the construction is successful, it is estimated that Gu Lei, Tian Li in Xinjiang and Baofeng in Ningxia will be put into operation in 2022-2023. According to the forecast of China Huaxin, by the end of 2023, the EVA production capacity is expected to increase to 2.67 million tons/year.
Next year's market price
It is expected to fluctuate at a high level.
Can the vigorous construction boom break the bottleneck of photovoltaic EVA supply?
"The trial production cycle of photovoltaic EVA materials is very long." Zhang Xiaohan introduced that it will take at least two years from the completion of the project to the stable production of a large number of photovoltaic EVA materials. "Even if EVA devices have been put into production, many companies still have a long way to go to continuously and stably produce photovoltaic materials. The output ratio of photovoltaic materials in the early stage was not high. "
An industry insider also bluntly told the reporter of Securities Times E Company that although many companies advertised that photovoltaic grade EVA could be mass-produced, in fact, the output and quality need further verification. "The quality of photovoltaic EVA produced by some enterprises is not too high, so it can't be used alone for the time being. When the market demand for photovoltaic EVA products is strong, it can only be mixed with the products of other companies. "
According to the statistics of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, in the first half of this year, the installed capacity of domestic photovoltaic power generation was 30.88GW, up by 137.4% year-on-year, which has exceeded the total installed capacity in the first ten months of last year. At the 2022 photovoltaic industry chain supply forum, Wang Bohua, honorary chairman of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, said that according to the installed capacity planning of each province, it is optimistic that the photovoltaic market will start an accelerated mode, and the forecast of new installed capacity will be raised by 10GW this year, and it is expected to reach 85GW ~ 100 GW for the whole year.
Up to now, 25 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions have made clear the scenery installation plan during the Tenth Five-Year Plan, in which the installed photovoltaic capacity has exceeded 392. 16GW, and will increase by 344.48GW in the next four years. In the global market, it is estimated that the installed photovoltaic capacity will be 205GW~250GW this year.
"The installed capacity of 1GW corresponds to about 5,000 tons of photovoltaic film raw materials." Long Yuteng introduced that the proportion of EVA in photovoltaic film raw materials is about 85%. "It is estimated that the demand for photovoltaic EVA this year will be 6.5438+0 million tons to 6.5438+0.05 million tons."
Long Yuteng told reporters that domestic EVA sales exceeded expectations in the first half of this year. "In the third quarter, due to the cooperation of the industrial chain, it may not be very good, but everyone is still optimistic in the fourth quarter. Silicon production capacity is about to be released, which will become an important boosting factor for photovoltaic EVA sales in the fourth quarter. "
Shanxi Securities Research Report predicts that the supply and demand of photovoltaic EVA will continue to maintain a tight balance next year. From the price point of view, EVA particles are still at a historically high level.
According to the calculation of China Huaxin, the domestic demand for photovoltaic EVA in 2022 and 2023 will be 1.0 1.000 tons and 1.22 million tons respectively. "The next few years will be a stage of rapid growth in the domestic photovoltaic material market demand. Although the domestic output of EVA photovoltaic materials continues to increase, the supply gap is expected to narrow, but the gap will not be completely filled within 2-3 years. " Zhang Xiaohan said that the overall price of EVA may rebound in the fourth quarter of 2022 due to the demand side's "golden September, silver and ten". "The demand for EVA in the photovoltaic market will still be strong next year, and the newly put into production capacity will not be able to continuously produce qualified photovoltaic materials in the short term. There is still a big gap in China, and it is expected that the price of EVA photovoltaic materials will remain high next year. "
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