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Suddenly! The Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point interest rate hike, and US stocks staged a roller coaster market. Will interest rates be cut next year? Powell made a heavy statement.
On Wednesday, US Eastern Time, the Federal Reserve continuously released hawkish signals. The market was like riding a roller coaster, and the three major US stock indexes collectively closed down.

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At the close, the Dow closed down 142.29 points, or 0.42%, to 33,966.35 points. The Nasdaq fell 85.93 points, or 0.76%, to 1 1 170.89 points; The S&P 500 index fell 24.33 points, or 0.6 1%, to 3,995.32. Most large-scale technology stocks fell, AMD fell more than 3%, Tesla and NVIDIA fell more than 2%, Apple fell more than 1%, Microsoft rose 0. 12%, and Meta rose 1.2%.

Popular China stocks were mixed, with the NASDAQ China Jinlong Index up 0.50%. Youxian rose nearly 14% every day, Netease rose more than 4%, Futu Holdings and Bi Li Bi Li rose more than 2%, Tencent Music, Pinduoduo and JD.COM rose more than 1%, and Vipshop and Baidu rose slightly. Iqiyi fell more than 5%, Manbang, Weilai and Xpeng Motors fell more than 1%, and Alibaba, Weibo and Li Wei fell.

In the news, on the same day, the Federal Reserve announced the latest interest rate resolution, raising interest rates by 50 basis points as scheduled, thus raising the federal funds interest rate range to 4.25%-4.50%, reaching the highest value after 65438+February 2007. The bitmap was further raised, exceeding market expectations. Federal Reserve Chairman Paul later said that he was firmly committed to the goal of restoring the inflation rate to 2%, and there was still a way to go to raise interest rates. Our decision will depend on the overall data in the future. Regarding the next rate hike, Powell said that the scale of the rate hike in February next year will depend on the future data and the job market.

Tesla hit another two-year low

On Wednesday, 12, 14, US stocks opened lower and hit a daily high at midday in anticipation of the Fed's slowing rate hike. The Dow rose 290 points, 0.8% higher than the Standard & Poor's 500 and Nasdaq, and then rose by nearly half, but returned to the daily high before the interest rate hike decision.

Market hawks interpret the Fed's decision to raise interest rates and Powell's press conference. U.S. stocks 10 minutes collectively turned down, and the decline expanded. Dow fell more than 400 points or 1.2%, down 34,000 points, S&P fell 1.3%, down 4,000 points, and Nasdaq fell 1.7%.

However, Powell admitted that the latest data has increased the Fed's confidence that inflation will decline, and it is expected to "accelerate progress" in this regard. The main indexes of US stocks rose briefly before closing, and finally closed down collectively, stopping for two days, leading the decline of technology stocks.

The S&P 500 index closed down 24.33 points, or 0.6 1%, to 3,995.32. The Dow Jones index closed down 140 points, or 0.42%, to 33,966.35 points. Nasdaq closed down nearly 86 points, or 0.76%, to 1 1 170.89. Nasdaq 100 closed down 0.8%, and Russell 2000 small-cap stocks fell 0.7%. The financial, raw materials and real estate sectors led the decline, with a drop of more than 1%, while technology and optional consumption fell by more than 0.7%.

Most star technology stocks turned down. Metauniverse rose more than 3% and closed at 1%. Amazon and Apple both fell by about 1% after rising by 1%. Google turned down from a one-week high, and Microsoft closed at 0. 1% after rising nearly 2%, still hitting a three-month high. Netflix stock market rose nearly 1. Tesla fell more than 2%, hitting a two-year low of 2020 1 1 for three consecutive days.

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Popular China outperformed US stocks for almost two consecutive days. China ETFKWEB rose 0.3%, CQQQ rose 0.7%, and Nasdaq Jinlong China Index rose 0.5%. JD.COM and Pinduoduo rose more than 1%, Netease rose more than 4%, Baidu rose slightly, among the four constituent stocks of Nasdaq 100. Among other stocks, Alibaba fell by 0.6%, while Tencent and Billie Billie rose by about 2%.

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After the announcement of the Federal Reserve's resolution, the yield of US bonds rose to a daily high, and the intraday two-year yield rose, rebounding from a low level of 15 basis points to 4.3 1%, and the one-year yield of 10 rose by 6 basis points to 3.56%. At the end of the US stock market, short-term bond yields kept rising, while long-term bond yields fell again. 10 year yield fell below 3.50% again, erasing the increase since last Friday.

It is not expected to cut interest rates in 2023.

According to CCTV News 15, local time 65438+February 14, after the Federal Reserve announced its decision to raise interest rates by 50 basis points, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said in a speech that the Fed expected that the continuous interest rate increase would help the inflation rate to return to the target level of 2%. He also pointed out that it is not expected to cut interest rates in 2023, and the interest rate increase announced at the meeting in February next year will depend on economic data.

Powell said that compared with last year's rapid development, the US economy has obviously slowed down. He pointed out that raising interest rates will not lead to economic recession, and the Fed should not consider cutting interest rates until it is convinced that the inflation rate will continue to drop to 2%.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. Image source: Xinhua News Agency

12 local time 14, the Federal Reserve announced that it would raise the target range of the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to 4.25% to 4.5%, which is the seventh time the Federal Reserve raised interest rates this year. In addition, the Fed predicts that the federal funds rate will peak at 5. 1% next year, and that the interest rate will drop to 4. 1% by the end of 2024 and 3. 1% by the end of 2025. The Fed also predicts that the unemployment rate will also rise next year, and by the end of 2023, the unemployment rate will rise from the current 3.7% to 4.6%.

It is reported that the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points for four consecutive times in June, July, September and165438+1October this year. The decision to raise interest rates by 50 basis points indicates a slowdown in the rate hike. Before the Federal Reserve announced the interest rate, the S&P 500 index rose by about 0.8%. After the announcement of the decision to raise interest rates, the three major US stock indexes all fell slightly.

Shanghai securities news said, "The overall inflation inflection point in the United States is basically established, but the downward process of core inflation is still repeated, the trend inflation peaks, and there are differences in medium and long-term inflation expectations." Yu Shao, chief economist and assistant to the president of orient securities, said that the main driving force of core inflation in the United States has shifted to the demand side. It is expected that the lagging effect of the Fed's interest rate hike will lead to the downward inflation in 2023. However, with the high base utility of non-core goods and housing gradually disappearing, the price of non-housing core services dominated by wages determines that inflationary pressure will still exist.

According to the soochow securities research report, although the absolute level of inflation in the United States is declining, the steepening or slowing down of its slope cannot be ignored. Its research team believes that high housing rents and service wages have increased the viscosity of inflation in the United States, and inflation in the United States will still decline in the future, but the process may be slow.

National Business Daily Comprehensive CCTV News, shanghai securities news